tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24201711320763216542024-03-13T10:04:26.102-04:00The FreeStater BlogTodd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.comBlogger326125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-39963761620686380322022-10-13T16:39:00.001-04:002022-10-13T16:39:37.982-04:00What Has Become of the GOP?I was a Republican for 20 years. I voted for every Republican presidential candidate from 1992 through 2012. I voted for every Republican gubernatorial candidate in MD since 2002.But the party that I was a part of is gone. The party dedicated to conservatism has been replaced by angry populists. A party that once celebrated the power of the individual and a limited government has been taken over Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-65008673739081075632019-07-11T19:01:00.003-04:002019-07-11T19:12:04.498-04:00The Myth of Liberal Fundamentalism
This is an excerpt from a 1989 report by the Progressive Policy Institute in response to the 1988 election. It's still relevant.
"The Myth of Liberal Fundamentalism: The oldest of these myths is that Democrats have lost presidential elections because they have strayed from traditional liberal orthodoxy. The perpetrators of this myth greet any deviation from liberal dogma, any attempt at Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-75436190104414299682018-11-18T22:21:00.002-05:002018-11-18T22:21:33.899-05:00It's Possible to Oppose Nancy Pelosi AND to Not Be Sexist
Newsflash: It’s entirely possible to believe that Pelosi should not be Speaker without being a sexist. Especially given that the opposition extends to the entire leadership team (mostly men). The fact that her supporters are using sexism to guilt Democrats into voting for her is s sign of how worried they are that she won’t secure enough votes.
But what I find to be especially ridiculous is Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-67617433919220946192018-11-03T20:30:00.003-04:002018-11-04T19:36:04.368-05:00Enough with the 2010 Obsession
Jealous keeps saying that if 1 million Democrats vote - he wins, because that's what happened in 2010 with O'Malley. There’s no reasonable scenario where fewer than 1 million Democrats turnout to vote in MD’s gubernatorial election. I don’t get the constant references to 2010 & needing 1 million Democrats. There are literally 500,000 more registered voters in 2018. It’s about crossover Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-49979032564246430832018-11-02T11:36:00.000-04:002018-11-02T19:39:42.649-04:00Maryland Politics 2018 - Can Larry Hogan Hold Back the Blue Wave
Maryland has not reelected a Republican governor in over 60 years. Despite that daunting history and clear evidence of Democratic enthusiasm as we near Election Day 2018, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan appears set to defy both history and the Blue Wave that is building nationally.
How has Hogan managed to withstand the strong national headwinds? Will Hogan's popularity help other Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-41156454069346144862018-11-02T09:20:00.000-04:002018-11-02T18:15:39.056-04:00Familiar Patterns Seen in Maryland Early Voting
After 2 days of early voting I estimated that Maryland was on track for 16% turnout. It ended up at 16.72%. Compared to the 8.33% in 2014, that’s a 100% increase in turnout. That's pretty much the same as the increase in 2016 over 2012. Based on past trends, I believe that we’re on track for overall turnout of 52% or 53%. That would be better than the abnormally low turnout level in 2014, but Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-27437483288983223052018-10-30T16:36:00.001-04:002018-10-30T18:45:18.987-04:00The Hogan/Jealous Election will be Decided by Crossover Voters
In several prior posts I have offered models for the Hogan/Jealous election based on Absentee ballot requests, prior election trends, and allocation of voters based on polling data. In this post, I want to look at all of the early votes and all of the Absentee requests collectively to see if they suggests a Blue Wave is building in Maryland. The Good folks over at Seventh State have already Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-63196244585187633312018-10-22T18:56:00.000-04:002018-10-22T19:38:15.460-04:00Updated: Maryland Absentee Ballot Requests May Not Be Good News for Jealous
Originally published on October 11, 2018. Post has been updated to include Absentee Ballots submitted through October 22, 2018.
Faced with daunting poll numbers that suggest Larry Hogan holds a steady double digit lead over Ben Jealous, Maryland Democrats have looked for silver linings wherever they can. In a press release today, they touted an increase in Democratic absentee ballot requests Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-23748203033261007482018-10-19T13:33:00.000-04:002018-10-19T16:24:58.703-04:0057% Isn't Enough for Jealous to Win
In a recent call with reporters, the Ben Jealous campaign said that they expect Democrats to make up 57% of voters in the gubernatorial election. That would be noticeably better than 2014 when Democrats accounted for only 54.5% of voters. The last time Democrats made up 57% of the electorate was in 2006 when Martin O'Malley defeated Republican incumbent Bob Ehrlich. So would 57% be enough for Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-90809888635193073112018-10-01T20:34:00.001-04:002018-10-09T16:29:51.763-04:00Making Sense of the Hogan/Jealous Polls - Update
Update - The Washington Post poll has Hogan ahead by 20 points, 58% to 38% with a MoE of +/- 4.5%. Factor in the upper and lower bounds of the MoE (as detailed below) and the Post poll is seeing the same race as are the prior polls in Maryland.
Across all 4 polls, Hogan has an average lead of 18.25 points. I had estimated his lead to be between 16 and 18 points in the original post.
Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-13673185442294426742018-09-24T20:29:00.002-04:002018-09-24T23:35:27.538-04:00Summary Reaction to Hogan/Jealous Debate
At times, the debate seemed like a rehash of the major themes of the 2016 Presidential race but with the party roles reversed - Make Maryland Great Again v. Maryland is Already Great so let’s stay the course. Hogan offered a vision of Maryland as a success and an example to the nation, but Jealous countered with a portrait of a state struggling with job creation, violent crime, drug addiction, &Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-75326249394096153882018-09-24T20:28:00.001-04:002018-09-24T23:35:18.751-04:00Reaction to Hogan/Jealous Debate
Four years ago, Larry Hogan and Anthony Brown met for a series of debates in mid-October at a point in campaign where polls showed that the race was tightening as Hogan closed the gap with Brown. Hogan's goal in that debate was clear - he needed to close the deal and convince voters, the majority of whom had tired of Martin O'Malley, that they could trust a Republican to lead the state. Hogan Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-29837325021652463342018-08-25T19:09:00.002-04:002018-08-28T11:38:30.640-04:00Does Maryland Really Need Revolutionary Health Care Change?
A lot of folks are talking about the need for a Medicare-for-All style health care reform in Maryland. I've said in the past that I support a Federal single-payer health care system. But I do not support such reform at the state level.
Trying to create a single-payer system at the state level is made problematic owing to the federal programs that exist. Those 65 and over, qualified disabled Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-52376959264132572022018-06-29T15:41:00.000-04:002018-06-29T16:05:50.816-04:00A Free Society Dies without a Free Press
I talk a lot with the great folks who cover Maryland politics. I’ve often said to a reporter “I won’t talk about that", "I’d rather not discuss that person", or, "this is not for attribution". Simply because I wanted to avoid controversy or because I didn't want to piss off a legislator with a fragile ego and put the college's funding at risk. Reporters don’t have the luxury of silence or the Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-12738609414488452062018-05-08T15:02:00.001-04:002018-05-08T15:04:04.097-04:00The Further Unraveling of Obama's "Legacy"
President Donald Trump pulled another thread on the tapestry of President Obama's rapidly unwinding legacy today by announcing an end to the Iran Nuclear Deal. Whether we're talking the Paris Accords or the Iran Deal, President Obama took the easy and politically expedient route of bypassing the Senate and negotiating an Executive Agreement - a legally meaningless agreement if not backed upTodd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-41321240024921574992018-04-25T21:14:00.000-04:002018-04-25T21:15:19.043-04:00Polarization in America Is Not Ideological
Across two books and multiple blog posts I have argued that Americans ARE NOT ideologically polarized nor are they more partisan. Rather we're less attached to party and most Americans lack a cohesive ideology. Ideological polarization and entrenched partisanship are instead reserved for political elites.
A new study by Eric Groenendyke makes the case far more eloquently: In short, he finds noTodd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-72636170473548771722018-04-04T20:23:00.002-04:002018-04-04T20:23:57.787-04:00The Courage of Meagan Simonaire
I'll just link to the story, but what an incredibly powerful and courageous speech by Delegate Meagan Simonaire as she prepares to vote for a ban on so-called conversion therapy in MD. You cannot fix what is not broken.
Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-89821694421484139802018-04-04T19:35:00.000-04:002018-04-04T23:16:06.041-04:00Behind the Scenes in the White House...
Trump: I just told the American people that I'm sending the military to defend the border.
Adviser: Mr. President, the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 prevents using the military to enforce domestic policy, so you can't use them on US soil.
Trump: No problem, I'll put them on the Mexico side. And Mexico will pay.
Adviser: Technically that would be an invasion and an act of war.
Trump: Just figure Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-65413358508603028742018-03-21T14:57:00.001-04:002018-03-21T14:59:49.620-04:00A Revised Version of Maryland, My Maryland that Actually Reflects the State's History
As the General Assembly debates a watered down bill to reconsider Maryland's pro-secessionist state song I wonder how many folks know that the Union wrote an alternate version - one that better reflects Maryland's actual history? Maybe we should consider interspersing the lyrics to create a song that reflects the actual divisions in Maryland at the time?
For those not in the know, Maryland, MyTodd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-47158689461429731912018-03-08T20:43:00.003-05:002018-03-08T20:48:27.579-05:00Madaleno Scores Key Labor Endorsement
It was announced today that the Baltimore/Washington Laborers District Council of LiUNA was endorsing state Senator Rich Madaleno in Maryland's Gubernatorial primary. The union represents more than 3,000
members in the state. The Baltimore/Washington Laborers District Council of LiUNA endorsed Democratic victor Ralph Northam in the 2017 gubernatorial primary and general Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-80136587720644980042018-03-02T21:13:00.002-05:002018-03-02T23:04:20.093-05:00I'm Back, for Good or for Ill...
I started the FreeStater Blog in 2009 because I believed that there were too few websites/blogs dedicated to the fascinating world of MD politics. In the years that followed, I used the blog to write about Maryland and national politics. About 4 years ago, my blog posts became fewer and fewer and in 2017 I only managed 7 posts - each about national politics. It's not that I lost interest in MD Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-42731680473302780782018-03-02T14:09:00.000-05:002018-03-07T09:34:48.389-05:00Democratic Race to Succeed Hogan is Far from Settled
No fewer than seven candidates are vying for the opportunity to take on Larry Hogan in November. Polling shows that a significant number of Democrats are undecided as to who should be the party's standard bearer in 2018. That being said, three names consistently top the polls - Prince Georges County Exec Rushern Baker, Baltimore County Exec Kevin Kamenetz, and former NAACP leader Ben Jealous. Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-24931865068151601822018-03-02T12:57:00.001-05:002018-03-07T07:47:45.956-05:00New Poll Finds Hogan Gaining Strength in Maryland
In September 2017, Mason Dixon released a poll showing Larry Hogan with a 61% approval rating. He led all potential challengers in head to head match ups, but was below the critical 50% threshold for an incumbent. Hogan led Rushern Baker 46% to 39%, Kevin Kamenetz 48% to 35%, and Ben Jealous 49% to 33%. Name recognition certainly played a roll in the results given that only 60% of respondents Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-59389592628923472482017-06-14T20:46:00.000-04:002017-06-14T20:46:10.582-04:00Quick Thoughts Following the Shooting of Steve Scalise
Perhaps we need to stop accusing our political opponents of being a threat to our democracy?
Perhaps we need to stop using the language of war when discussing politics?
Though a thriving democracy demands a loyal opposition to any governing majority it does not need a resistance - losing an election (whether 1992, 2000, 2008, or 2016) is not the same as living in occupied Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-65167766192132599662017-06-02T21:09:00.000-04:002017-06-03T00:32:05.307-04:00The Left's Anti-Intellectualism Problem
Much is made of the anti-intellectualism on the Right. But I think there's a deeper story there and the recent campus "incidents" brings that deeper story to light. Conservatives aren't anti-intellectualism, they're anti-intellectual. And who can blame them? Those who proudly wear the banner of intellectual are often the same self-righteous and self-appointed guardians of of what can and cannot Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12119831430189374600noreply@blogger.com