tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24201711320763216542012-01-31T09:14:49.763-05:00Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.comBlogger1841100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-71695139961703722282012-01-31T09:21:00.000-05:002012-01-31T09:14:49.788-05:00

The 2014 Democratic primary for Maryland governor may seem a long way off, but for the men interested in the nomination it looms large on the horizon. With all eyes turned to the 2012 legislative session of the General Assembly and Martin O'Malley's high profile gambit for a resume' of actual accomplishments I think it's worth taking a moment to look at the men who wish to succeed him. At

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-60674682110921089652012-01-30T15:02:00.003-05:002012-01-30T15:08:54.248-05:00

Everyone was waiting for Governor O'Malley's gas tax proposal - conspicuously absent from his recent budget submission - but few could have anticipated that O'Malley would propose adding a 6% sales tax to gasoline and effectively add $0.21 per gallon over the next three years. This is, of course, a ludicrous proposal. No member of the General Assembly elected by a victory margin of less than 10

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-49171468522758255892012-01-23T10:07:00.003-05:002012-01-23T10:27:37.497-05:00

Now is not the time to introduce significant and regressive tax increases on working families, nor is it the time to lose ground on education equality by shifting costs to economically unequal counties. Last week Governor O'Malley unveiled his FY 2013 budget.  As with all prior years, O'Malley had to deal with a structural deficit - this time amounting to roughly $1 billion of the budget's $14

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-77098440544402896702012-01-18T11:22:00.002-05:002012-01-18T14:59:45.166-05:00

The possibility of two high profile ballot measures - repeal of the MD DREAM Act and Same-Sex marriage - may make the 2012 election in Maryland anything but boring. Ordinarily, a presidential election year in Maryland is pretty boring stuff. No Republican presidential candidate has carried the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988 and no Republican has won a Senate race since Mac Matthias in

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-78246715443861364142012-01-13T22:51:00.002-05:002012-01-10T14:05:59.340-05:00

A new poll from Gallup shows that the share of Americans identifying as "independent" is at an all-time high of 40%. Though many political consultants and political scientists have long argued that independent voters are a myth - I disagree. In a forthcoming paper for Third Way I will present a more detailed argument for the importance of independent voters and even independent partisans -

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-54356553532371442842012-01-07T22:52:00.000-05:002012-01-10T10:42:21.743-05:00

America's Dysfuntional Politics In a report released last Winter, National Journal determined "the overall level of congressional polarization last year (2010) was the highest... recorded... every Senate Democrat compiled a voting record more liberal than every Senate Republican—and every Senate Republican compiled a voting record more conservative than every Senate Democrat." In the House "five

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-38892373092339910792011-11-21T12:15:00.002-05:002011-11-21T12:17:01.848-05:00

Woodrow Wilson once observed “Congress in committee is Congress at work.” But what was once a keen observation is now little more than an anachronism describing a Congress that no longer exists.  In theory, the committee structure is crucial to a functioning Congress. By dividing the work among specialized “mini-congresses” the committee system allows Congress to become greater than the sum of

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-44720914012751045172011-11-11T11:33:00.003-05:002011-11-11T18:16:21.109-05:00

Congratulations Maryland! According to a story in today's Washington Post, the Free State leads the country in Millionaires. Approximately 7.22% of Marylander households are part of the exclusive millionaires club. There are about 2.4 million households in Maryland so that translates into roughly 173,000 millionaire households. I'm glad this information was released, because the state is

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-58289715509287945252011-10-27T21:57:00.001-04:002011-10-27T22:03:49.794-04:00

I continue to be impressed with Comptroller Peter Franchot and his maneuvering toward the 2014 gubernatorial contest. With the redistricting "battle" behind us and the special legislative session of the General Assembly adjourned, all attention has shifted to the upcoming regular session and the question of tax increases. A panel convened by Governor O’Malley and tasked with identifying new

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-15184495472963836422011-10-14T19:18:00.006-04:002011-10-15T22:36:07.194-04:00

Update: Martin O'Malley has decided to ask African-American voters to wait at least another decade for fair representation in Maryland... and apparently African-American leaders are ready to give up and say "thank you." At least Donna Edwards had the courage to protest, and hats off to the folks who walked out on the caucus capitulation meeting... So when asked to choose between creating a

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-53578718195729216552011-10-13T16:59:00.001-04:002011-10-13T20:33:56.227-04:00

I do not envy Martin O'Malley. As chair of the Democratic Governor's Association and presidential aspirant O'Malley is under tremendous pressure to deliver at least one new Democratic House seat to bolster his party's chances of reclaiming the House of Representatives in 2012. The map proposed by his Redistricting Commission bowed to that national pressure. But the only way to create 7

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-80216125360930966942011-10-10T17:56:00.003-04:002011-10-11T09:19:08.911-04:00

The Congressional Redistricting Plan of 2012 will be scheduled to be heard before the joint hearing of the Maryland General Assembly's Senate Committee on Reapportionment and Redistricting and House Rules and Executive Nominations on Monday, October 17th at 1 pm. The public is welcome to testify. Though I have prepared a rough draft of a map, I have not prepared a precinct specific map that would

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-74878375201889469692011-10-10T09:28:00.001-04:002011-10-10T10:07:40.337-04:00

Legislation has been introduced in the current Congress that would end partisan redistricting. The proposed legislation, requires "redistricting to be conducted through a plan developed by the independent redistricting commission established in the state, or if such plan is not enacted into law, the redistricting plan selected by the state's highest court or developed by a U.S. district court."

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-65563446757808237142011-10-06T01:48:00.014-04:002011-10-11T09:07:27.717-04:00

Update: Please take a moment to tell the Redistricting Commission what you think of their proposal. Update 2: I tip my hat to the Montgomery County Council for standing up to Governor O'Malley and opposing his gerrymandered mess. African-American leaders in Maryland are quite justifiably concerned with the recently released Congressional redistricting map prepared by the Governor's Redistricting

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-16954989610460679172011-10-04T21:57:00.000-04:002011-10-04T21:57:53.415-04:00

On Wednesday, October 12, St. Mary's College of Maryland will host a screening of the award winning documentary "Gerrymandering." The film will be followed by a panel discussion featuring Professor Susan Grogan and me - Professor Todd Eberly. The film, released in 2010, discusses the history and ethics of redrawing electoral district lines in order to give one party an advantage. “Gerrymandering

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-23094519467263665502011-10-03T23:06:00.007-04:002011-10-04T21:59:56.880-04:00

Update: Want to learn more about gerrymandering and ask me questions? Come to St. mary's College on October 12 for a screening of the documentary "Gerrymandering." The Redistricting Commission has officially released its map - as shown below, the proposed map is a variation of Option 1, as detailed in a prior post and in the Washington Post. Democrats appear to have abandoned plans to target

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-22398706452764671802011-10-03T13:56:00.001-04:002011-10-03T13:56:41.772-04:00

Need I say more?

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-82046158844676354422011-10-03T13:23:00.001-04:002011-10-03T13:47:29.975-04:00

The Washington Post is reporting that the group Marylanders for Marriage Equality will soon launch a new web campaigned aimed at winning over support for same-sex marriage legislation during the state's next legislative session in early 2012.  Mimicking a similar, and seemingly successful, ad campaign in New York, the new web ads will feature high profile folks offering their support for marriage

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-74940971270113163342011-10-01T22:48:00.011-04:002011-10-09T12:54:22.032-04:00

Looking for my map? Check it out here. Update: Want to learn more about gerrymandering and ask me questions? Come to St. Mary's College on October 12 for a screening of the documentary "Gerrymandering." At the height of the national debate over raising the debt ceiling, Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley wrote a column for the Huffington Post in which he excoriated the Tea Party and Republicans

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-61345749109080802012011-09-15T23:42:00.001-04:002011-09-15T23:45:41.258-04:00

It's been a bad week (year?) for the Democratic Party. In two special elections the party suffered serious defeats. In Nevada (NV-2), a district that John McCain narrowly won in 2008, voters elected Republican Mark Amodei with a 22 point victory margin. In New York (NY-9), a district formerly held by disgraced representative Anthony Weiner elected a Republican for the first time since the 1920s.

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-60431398150509437122011-08-22T14:16:00.005-04:002011-08-22T16:56:53.031-04:00

*** Updated with a word of warning for Republicans who think this post holds good news for the GOP (see the end). No matter how you measure party preference, Democrats have enjoyed a consistent lead for over 60 years. According to data from the American National Election Studies that lead has fluctuated, but remains significant. Source: ANES In 2008, Democrats led Republicans by 14 percentage

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-81976569733832322242011-08-13T15:57:00.008-04:002011-08-13T22:23:18.849-04:00

I was watching The Birdcage on TV today (the 1996 remake of the french film La Cage Aux Folles). As I watched the Gene Hackman character I realized something funny and sad - his character was a caricature, an exaggeration, in 1996, but today the character plays like any number of GOP leaders or presidential candidates. Watch this clip from the film dealing with gays in the military and prayer in

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-15694474310568420702011-08-12T16:11:00.003-04:002011-08-12T20:53:02.925-04:00

In a New York Times story yesterday, reporter Jennifer Steinhauer told readers that in townhall meetings across the country members of Congress are not being told to compromise or find common ground, but rather to dig in, fight harder, and not compromise. Steinhauer was right to tell readers that these townhall meetings tend to be magnets for activists and the "most partisan and intransigent

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-24614890784317036272011-08-04T13:40:00.003-04:002011-08-04T16:32:25.684-04:00

Now that the battle over the Debt Ceiling is settled (at least until Congress comes back from recess) we are once again treated to the usual chorus of voices bemoaning how polarized America has become. As such, I feel compelled to once again dispell the myth that America is a polarized nation. As I argued during the healthcare battle, after the Gabbie Giffords shooting, and prior to the 2010

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-6550841490763052432011-08-03T14:43:00.001-04:002011-08-03T14:45:34.158-04:00

I was a guest on the Kojo Nnamdi show today discussing redistricting in the state. I'd like to thank Kojo for having me on the show. Listen here Maryland's Enters The Fight Over Redistricting in Maryland, Politics We explore how this round of redistricting is likely to shape the balance of political power in Maryland. Maryland is about as "blue" as a state can be. But it's about to be

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-50537842451900533842011-07-30T12:32:00.003-04:002011-08-05T16:14:04.325-04:00

In an interesting statement at the Board of Public Works meeting, State Comptroller Peter Franchot said "We have become uniquely tied at the hip or joined at the hip to the federal government," and lawmakers need to rededicate Maryland toward "a business climate that inspires, promotes and rewards private-sector investment in Maryland." In stark contrast to Governor Martin O'Malley's frequent

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-64808896623595472852011-07-26T17:37:00.000-04:002011-07-26T17:37:52.160-04:00

There is so much to love in Jeffrey Sachs all out attack on the colossal failings of America's two major political parties. Every part of the budget debate in the U.S. is built on a tissue of willful deceit. Consider the Republican Party's double-mantra that the deficit results from "runaway spending" and that more tax cuts are the key to economic growth. Republicans claim that the budget

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-86350101729617796352011-07-22T17:09:00.009-04:002011-07-25T14:30:08.458-04:00

As a follow up to my endorsement of the Maryland GOP's proposed redistricting map I wanted to discuss what I referred to as the true political diversity of Maryland. It is often remarked that Democrats enjoy a 2-to-1 voter registration advantage over Republicans in the state. This is quite true, the table below shows party registration numbers as of June. As the table shows, Democrats hold a

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-26217742208087315012011-07-22T15:32:00.000-04:002011-07-22T15:32:17.790-04:00

As expected, Governor O'Malley has announced his intentions to sponsor same-sex marriage legislation in Maryland. I have been very critical of O'Malley and his lack of leadership on this issue during the 2011 legislative session. I also believe that the only reason he decided to support the bill was the active role played by Gov. Cuomo in New York when the state legislature legalized same sex

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-44441197460684836192011-07-18T13:59:00.005-04:002011-07-18T20:57:35.964-04:00

I want to thank the Washington Post for inviting me to write a column on redistricting for their Sunday edition. It was an opportunity for me to write about an issue that I care for a great deal. As I've been reading reader comments and e-mails I decided that I should follow up a bit on the issue and address (though indirectly) some of the reader comments. I admit to not having much patience for

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-72109997573434713712011-07-17T01:37:00.000-04:002011-07-17T01:37:11.183-04:00

Tell the Redistricting Task Force that Maryland's gerrymandered districts must be changed! Read my previous posts on redistricting in Maryland here and here. Jeanne D. Hitchcock, Esq., chair of the Governor's Redistricting Advisory Committee (GRAC), today announced locations for the first 3 of 12 public hearings that will help inform the committee as it drafts a recommended plan for the State's

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-4259455323337848772011-07-16T19:55:00.002-04:002011-07-16T19:59:44.010-04:00

The following post is from a column that I wrote for the Washington Post - the full text (with nice maps) can be veiwed at the Washington Post's Opinions Page. Maryland is home to some of the most gerrymandered congressional districts in the country. But the decennial redistricting getting underway gives Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley and state leaders a chance to remake the partisan,

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-72569986495377277802011-07-13T10:32:00.005-04:002011-07-14T20:33:16.652-04:00

The Washington Post is reporting that Governor Martin O'Malley is considering whether to sponsor legislation in the 2012 Legislative Session that would legalize same-sex marriage in Maryland. O'Malley was largely silent on the issue when it was considered, and defeated, during the 2011 session. The defeat of same-sex marriage in Maryland was viewed as a major defeat for an issue that has

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-12786014679144046102011-07-08T13:38:00.000-04:002011-07-08T13:51:56.064-04:00

Over at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball page, senior columnist Alan Abramowitz takes on what he calls "myths" about Independent voters. Several of his points are quite correct and I will not quibble with them, but Abramowitz is far too dismissive of what it means to be an Independent. Abramowitz writes "the large majority of independents are independents in name only. Research by political scientists

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-89444176717378433632011-07-07T15:52:00.001-04:002011-07-09T15:54:31.703-04:00

After a much needed vacation, and time spent dedicated to my forthcoming book "America's Dysfunctional Political System" I am happy to announce that I will be resuming regular posts to the FreeStater Blog. Stay tuned...

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-4728393140704561352011-07-07T11:02:00.001-04:002011-07-17T01:33:41.999-04:00

Update: Make sure your voice is heard - there will be 12 public hearings on the issue of redistricting - dates and times are available here. Governor O'Malley has named the members of his Redistricting Task Force and no one should be surprised by its composition. Jeanne D. Hitchcock will serve as chair of Task Force. Hitchcock is O'Malley's Secretary of Appointments. Prior to joining the

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-53892880245085795772011-05-17T13:50:00.000-04:002011-05-17T14:33:12.516-04:00

Every month, Campaigns and Elections magazine profiles the Top Political Influencers in a given state. In May, they profiled Maryland.  The full report can be found at this link. As might be expected, Martin O'Malley, Doug Gansler, Steny Hoyer and a host of high profile Democrats top the list. On the Republican side, former Gov. Bob Ehrlich is tops - despite a dramatic 14 point loss in his

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-6154523417184626512011-04-19T13:51:00.000-04:002011-04-20T19:47:08.403-04:00

Maryland lost a great friend this week. William Donald Shaefer passed away on Monday. Schaefer was mayor of Baltimore City from 1971 to 1987 - 16 years during which he committed his life to improving the city (to say nothing of the years he spent on the City Council starting in 1955). Harborplace, Camden Yards, the Baltimore Aquarium - all exist as testimonials to his commitment to Baltimore.

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-47301892074516327012011-04-08T21:03:00.000-04:002011-04-08T21:14:14.730-04:00

Political scientist V.O. Key once theorized that increased political competition would force parties to offer more distinct policies to voters in an effort to influence their choice. Additionally, as competition increases the parties come to rely more heavily, not on the mean, median, or moderate voter, but rather on the more committed and active voter. Recent history has proven Key to have been

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-77939282479905839322011-04-04T15:36:00.000-04:002011-04-04T15:36:12.851-04:00

Sorry for the lull in new posts - late March and April are busy times and my posts will be few and far between as the final weeks of the semester and academic conferences eat into my blogging time.

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-21526314147134475602011-03-15T23:04:00.000-04:002011-03-16T11:30:30.087-04:00

Imagine the scene: thousands of public employees taking to the streets, crowding the state capitol, denouncing changes to their benefits. Speakers took to stage and denounced the governor, "enough is enough" they said, "leave our pensions alone" and one employee for the Department of Social Services declared "I am in an abusive relationship, with the state..." Is this a day in the life in

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-39228470202823189502011-03-15T09:54:00.001-04:002011-07-13T06:17:20.953-04:00

The Maryland Senate has approved, by a 27-20 vote, legislation that would grant in-state tuition to undocumented students at public universities and community colleges. The bill would place significant restrictions on undocumented students before qualifying for in-state tuition, they must: graduate from a Maryland high school and then attend a community college within the high school’s

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-84783719111254895952011-03-11T17:29:00.000-05:002011-03-11T17:30:04.930-05:00

A bill to legalize same-sex marriage in Maryland died today in the House of Delegates. According to the Washington Post, the bill died as the result of opposition by Democrats in Southern Maryland (my home territory) and African-American Democrats from Prince Georges County who cited religious opposition to the bill among their constituents. It is impossible to not see the sad irony of

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-9498649641912667772011-03-11T12:00:00.000-05:002011-03-11T12:59:51.144-05:00

Maryland's House of Delegates will likely vote today on whether or not to legalize same-sex marriage in the state. By most counts, the legislation lacks the 71 votes need to pass. I have already written extensively about this issue and stand by prior comments and criticisms of the many delegates who appear to be unprepared for the awesome responsibility of legislating. Today, I simply want to

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-3722498845375850612011-03-06T23:05:00.000-05:002011-03-07T06:29:43.693-05:00

As a professor of political science I admit that I tend to view political issues through a slightly different lens than many voters and certainly many elected leaders. Few things frustrate me more than when people fundamentally fail to understand the difference between a direct democracy and a representative republic. America is of course the latter, yet is all too often treated by voters and

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-7970553005773915842011-03-04T10:22:00.000-05:002011-03-04T10:27:58.512-05:00

In a report at MyFoxDC, Del. Alston's position has been clarified considerably. Alston wishes to do away with marriage altogether, and have Maryland recognize only civil unions. "I believe, as a government, we should issue something that is the same for everybody... And I think, if we wanted to issue a license to everybody and call it a civil union license. And then everybody in the state -

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-13288524711649646222011-03-03T17:25:00.000-05:002011-03-04T10:26:04.879-05:00

Update: Del. Alston's position has been clarified - she would end marriage in Maryland and replace it with civili unions for all - please see my updated post. This certainly negates the separate but equal issue, but does not really resolve much of anything. As a follow up to her decision to reconsider supporting a marriage equality bill that she co-sponsored, Del. Tiffany Alston says that she

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-76793372822462021542011-03-02T13:15:00.000-05:002011-03-03T18:03:29.211-05:00

Update 2: Separate but Equal in Maryland, Roger Taney Would be so Proud Update: A vote is now expected tomorrow. Del. Carter has indicated that she will vote in favor of the bill. Del. Alston has not stated how she intends to vote. Legislation legalizing same-sex civil marriage in Maryland passed by a relatively comfortable 25-21 margin in the state Senate last week. Most analysts considered

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-55265028033691421122011-02-22T19:38:00.000-05:002011-02-23T21:23:59.333-05:00

In a report issued last year, the Pew center determined that there was a $1 trillion gap "at the end of fiscal year 2008 between the $2.35 trillion states had set aside to pay for employees’ retirement benefits and the $3.35 trillion price tag of those promises." Since then that gap has only grown and is estimated to now be closer to $2 trillion. The report continued "In 2000, just over half the

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-56398575533578092252011-02-13T08:44:00.000-05:002011-02-14T18:35:48.880-05:00

Update 2: The Baltimore Sun is reporting "Sen. Katherine Klausmeier said today that she has decided to vote in favor of same-sex marriage..." Sen. Joan Carter Conway, Baltimore Democrat has  emerged as the crucial 24th vote. Update: Democrat Sen. Edward Kasemeyer (Baltimore and Howard counties) is now a yes. According to the Washington Post "With Kasemeyer's support, 22 senators have now

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-4678031887543080552011-02-11T09:16:00.000-05:002011-02-11T16:26:12.270-05:00

Want to better understand Martin O'Malley's 14 point victory margin over Republican and former Governor Bob Ehrlich in Maryland? Look no farther than the just release Census data for Maryland - all of Maryland's population growth over the past decade has been among racial and ethnic minorities. In 2000, non-Hispanic whites were 65% of the state's population. In 2010, that has fallen to below 55%.

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-58293655737599474932011-01-21T16:26:00.000-05:002011-01-21T16:51:02.127-05:00

I openly admit that I was shocked by Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley's margin of victory in his re-election bid against former Governor Bob Ehrlich. I argued on this blog and in the pages of the Baltimore Sun and the Maryland Gazette that the race would be close. In the closing days of the campaign, the Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun released polls showing O'Malley ahead by 11 to 16

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-68105628870197107412011-01-14T10:31:00.000-05:002011-01-14T11:35:06.015-05:00

There is a great write-up in the New Republic on just how bad the press covered the tragedy in Arizona and how it ignored a real problem (treating mental illness, seeing warning signs) while focusing on an imagined one (heated rhetoric). The false narrative with regard to the shooting created by the press and opportunistic political leaders served to reinforce perhaps the greatest false

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-50158234580015664362011-01-09T15:02:00.000-05:002011-01-09T22:24:21.006-05:00

As part of a larger research project, I've been working on updates to Gerald Pomper's 1968 study of electoral coalitions by studying the linear correlation of state by state election results in paired presidential elections. According to Pomper an electoral conversion or realignment would be evident via a “change in the parties’ bases of support… the geographic distribution of each party’s vote

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-43136978796732152432010-12-17T15:15:00.000-05:002010-12-17T16:16:00.963-05:00

The recent handwringing on the Left and on the Right over the tax deal struck between President Barack Obama and Senate Republicans has provided a nice opportunity for Americans to see that there is in fact little difference between the far Left and the far Right in America - to be sure, they differ with regard to their stance on issues - but when it comes to the their arrogant, self-righteous,

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-29474671002130163822010-11-17T23:28:00.000-05:002010-12-06T20:50:22.027-05:00

I spoke to a group of St. Mary's College alums tonight about the 2010 midterms. I said the same things that I've been saying for two weeks - I called it the Myths of 2010 talk:  Myth One - Democrats didn't turn-out. This is not true. Compared to the last midterm election in 2006 Democratic turnout was essentially the same, as was Republican turnout. Democrats lost because Independents shifted

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-19574751247044463212010-10-31T23:25:00.000-04:002010-11-03T10:05:33.524-04:00

I admit to being almost overwhelmed as I try to predict just what will happen on November 2nd.  In a recent essay in the Baltimore Sun I wrote that the 2010 midterms would likely be a wave election that would return House Democrats to where they were prior to the 2006 election.  That would mean a loss of 55 seats in the House. In my official prediction - as a member of the St. Mary's College

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-55725668703214358952010-10-30T18:08:00.000-04:002010-10-30T23:35:29.290-04:00

Democratic Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Republican Challenger Charles Lollar faced off at a forum sponsored by the the Center for the Study of Democracy and the St. Mary's County NAACP at St. Mary's College of Maryland on October 29th.  The full video, as well as select highlights are included below. Full Video: On Illegal Immigration: On Healthcare Reform: On Cap and Trade Legislation:

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-61069705427261949562010-10-28T16:14:00.000-04:002010-10-28T16:28:13.494-04:00

Over at Polising.com (and linked at Politicalwire.com), Jonathan Singer notes that the new McClatchy Poll finds Democrats in a much stronger position on the generic ballot and he thinks he knows why “The Democrats' strength among registered voters comes directly from the cell-only population... This data buttresses the findings published earlier this month by Pew that if pollsters are skipping

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-60568483566822694752010-10-28T00:00:00.000-04:002010-10-29T10:15:44.000-04:00

Update: Early voting ended yesterday and the trends in the 1st District have held - 46.4% of ballots cast by Republicans, 42.9% by Democrats, 10.7% by Others. These numbers must be very encouraging to Harris, and probably explain why the Democratic Party is now spending money on behalf of the Libertarian candidate in the 1st District - hardly a sign of confidence. Original Post: Maryland's 1st

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-46903232339890841932010-10-27T07:47:00.000-04:002010-10-27T16:28:39.753-04:00

According to an Ehrlich campaign internal poll the race for Maryland governor is within the margin of error: "Contrary to what The Baltimore Sun and Washington Post want you to believe, this race is extremely close. A survey commissioned by the Ehrlich campaign shows that as of yesterday, the campaign for governor was statistically tied among those most likely to vote. That’s right: 47 percent

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-57092024274370068992010-10-25T15:30:00.000-04:002010-10-25T15:35:14.416-04:00

Two polls in as many days suggest that Martin O'Malley has opened a formidable 14 point lead over former governor Bob Ehrlich - the Baltimore Sun reports that O'Malley has a 52% to 38% lead over Bob Ehrlich. The next day the Washington Post reported an O'Malley lead of 54% to 40%. Reporters from both papers seemed less than convinced by the poll results, but took comfort in the seemingly similar

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-54702873637196972282010-10-22T09:58:00.000-04:002010-10-22T12:57:03.702-04:00

Update:  Many reporters have asked me how Democrat Frank Kratovil in Maryland 1st Congressional District had managed to weather the storm so far this election cycle - I said that it was testament to his strength as a candidate, but in the end the 2010 electoral tide woould wash him out of office. It now seems that the tide is coming in. After running a close race with Andy Harris a new Monmouth

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-52390071577814994672010-10-21T22:58:00.000-04:002010-10-21T23:08:25.836-04:00

Bob Ehrlich and Martin O'Malley met for a third time today on WOLB radio. The station has a largely African American audience and issues of concern to the African American community topped the agenda early on and throughout.  A casual listener may have been confused, however, and wondered if President Obama was running for governor of Maryland. On question after question O'Malley made reference

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-24583032188764627792010-10-19T07:05:00.000-04:002010-10-21T23:10:03.636-04:00

A new poll from Maryland's best pollster, Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies, shows the O'Malley/Ehrlich contest to be a 4.5 point race - 46.9% to 42.4%. This makes much more sense than other polls that have shown a much larger O'Malley lead. Ehrlich has had a serious problem breaking the mid-40s barrier in most polls. O'Malley's approval is below 50% (where it's always been) but probably

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-14852797563677454932010-10-16T14:55:00.000-04:002010-10-16T15:10:16.438-04:00

Anyone else find it strange that the American media is so obsessed with Delaware Republican Christine O'Donnell? Though she trails Democrat Chris Coons by double digits in the polls America was treated to national coverage of a debate between the two moderated by Wolf Blitzer. Americans are also being told that Christine O'Donnell's surprise primary victory over moderate Republican Mike Castle is

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-46566332556766093652010-10-14T12:50:00.000-04:002010-10-14T13:29:42.336-04:00

The debate is over, what a difference from Monday. Ehrlich was focused and on message and I believe that he won the debate. O'Malley's answers to nearly every question were essentially the same as his answers on Monday, rather than seeming polished they seemed rehearsed. Also, during the Monday debate it was clear that neither man liked the other. Today, Ehrlich was much more respectful toward

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-90090577278776793642010-10-13T19:25:00.000-04:002010-10-13T22:23:31.431-04:00

In America, the era of elections as affirmation has ended, we are living in the era of elections as repudiation. At this point, there is little doubt that the 2010 midterm elections are going to produce a political sea change in Washington and in State Houses across the United States. Just two years ago, pundits, politicians, and political analysts were writing the GOP’s epitaph. The party had

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-35466663402916207532010-10-13T16:15:00.000-04:002010-10-13T22:15:31.627-04:00

The Center for the Study of Democracy and the St. Mary's County Branch of the NAACP will cosponsor a candidates forum between Democratic Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Republican challenger Charles Lollar on Friday, October 29th. The Forum will be held at St. Mary's College of Maryland and will be moderated by Dr. Todd Eberly, Interim Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Wayne

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-27563312831842631792010-10-11T20:46:00.000-04:002010-10-11T21:05:12.375-04:00

My very quick take on the debate: No game changers and no clear winner. O'Malley was more polished, Ehrlich had a chance to answer O'Malley's ads. I think that O'Malley crossed a line with his reference, twice, to the use of "coded language" during the discussion of student performance in Baltimore. It was a thinly veiled accusation of racism and I think that it was so out of left field that it

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-622768703979373682010-10-11T18:57:00.001-04:002010-10-11T20:27:51.830-04:00

So, who won?  O'Malley was more polished - as he usually is - I'm not sure that 2010 is a year for polished politicians. That said, O'Malley stayed more focused, used questions to his advantage and had key talking points that he hammered away at. I think that his defense of taking federal funds and his tax increase may have been missteps. Ehrlich had weak opening and closing statements, but

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-65019654389948408742010-10-09T12:18:00.000-04:002010-10-09T21:25:14.848-04:00

Though some hopeful partisans and a few members of the press have written recently about renewed hope among Democrats that the 2010 midterms will not be as bad as previously thought there is in fact no evidence to support the theory of a Democratic rebound. In fact, things appear to be getting worse not better. Some, including myself, argued that the election of Tea Party candidate Christine

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-90665592545153863032010-10-08T20:10:00.000-04:002010-10-08T20:10:58.741-04:00

On Friday October 8th, I spoke with Sheilah Kast of WYPR's Maryland Morning about the effect of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Citizens United v. FEC on Maryland as well as the gubernatorial race and the race in the 1st Congressional District. Listen to the segment.

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-82370013786203397452010-10-08T11:57:00.000-04:002010-10-08T15:10:57.693-04:00

Though I stand by my recent critique of the Washington Post poll that showed Martin O'Malley with an 11 point lead over Bob Ehrlich, the latest statewide survey from Rasmussen Reports shows that Ehrlich has clearly lost momentum in the race. I believe the reason is O'Malley's aggressive and effective advertising campaign. Every morning as parents are getting their kids ready for school or daycare

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-78788247018258970082010-10-01T18:14:00.000-04:002010-10-04T17:45:35.037-04:00

Update - The latest data from Gallup further illustrates why I dismiss Newsweek polls. Gallup finds that the GOP has 3 point lead among Registered Voters, but when Gallup models the data for Likely Voters that GOP lead balloons to 13 points. These polls are tied to an actual upcoming election as such a model (like Gallup's) that seeks to estimate voter behavior is useful, whereas a model that

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-4276239010709103152010-09-30T22:24:00.000-04:002010-10-01T11:38:25.148-04:00

Update - According to Blair Lee with the Gazette of Business and Politics the Washington Post weights it polls according to Census data and not actual turnout - as a result the poll is overstating turnout among key constituent groups and heavily Democratic Baltimore City. Original Post with revised analysis based on material provided by the Washington Post: Much news has been made in the past

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-58219317469306544612010-09-24T08:36:00.000-04:002010-09-24T08:36:02.003-04:00

Though the Realclearpolitics average of Generic Ballot questions has shown a decided narrowing between Republicans and Democrats a slew of recent stories suggests that the playing field has far from improved for Democrats. Consider these three tidbits from the last 12 hours: The Voter Confidence Index, created by NBC News, is a combination of three questions commonly asked in national polls: the

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-38750085478013002502010-09-21T21:36:00.000-04:002010-09-21T21:42:00.821-04:00

Democratic turnout on primary day may not have held much good news for Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, but the latest survey from Rasmussen Reports finds O'Malley in new territory - at the 50% mark. This marks the first time since former Governor Robert Ehrlich entered the race that O'Malley has seen his reelect number reach 50%. Since February, O'Malley's level of support has ranged from 49%

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-878825794833165992010-09-15T06:54:00.000-04:002010-09-15T06:59:52.065-04:00

The big news in Maryland so far has got to be the size of Bob Ehrlich's victory over Tea Party and Sarah Palin favorite Brian Murphy. On a night when conservative insurgents scored a dramatic victory in Delaware and battled to a near tie in New Hampshire Bob Ehrlich defeated Brian Murphy 76% to 24%. On the other side of the ballot, Martin O'Malley has to deal with the unexpected embarassment of

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-24171298759407291192010-09-14T22:53:00.000-04:002010-09-15T06:12:04.456-04:00

In 2002, when neither Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend nor Republican Bob Ehrlich faced serious primary threats Townsend received roughly 400,000 votes to Ehrlich's 200,000 - a 2 to 1 margin that closely matched the Democrats' registration advantage. Roughly 100,000 Democrats opted to vote against Townsend in the primary. So there was a 2.5 to 1 turnout advantage among Democrats, but 20% lodged

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-66983445188980080442010-09-14T21:39:00.000-04:002010-09-14T21:39:06.300-04:00

The unexpected loss by moderate Republican Mike Castle in Delaware to the conservative newcomer Christine O'Donnell has just made it less likely that Republicans can retake the Senate in 2010.  Heading into November the GOP holds 41 seats and none appear to be at risk. The GOP is expected to pickup AR, ND, and IN as well as CO and PA for 5 new seats. Delaware was expected to be number 6 with the

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-43743976259954635132010-09-14T21:18:00.000-04:002010-09-14T23:43:44.812-04:00

With early returns in the AP has called the gubernatorial races for Martin O'Malley and Robert Ehrlich. In the end, insurgent Republican Brian Murphy fizzled. Ehrlich carried 78% of vote in early returns - simply trouncing Murphy. Any suggestions that the result indicates a weakness for Ehrlich are simply wrong. Murphy was a reasonably well financed candidate with a strong organization, and Tea

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-23964910778221261362010-09-12T20:35:00.000-04:002010-09-12T21:36:32.424-04:00

In Why Trust Matters: Declining Political Trust and the Demise of American Liberalism, Marc Hetherington argues that a decline in  political trust has undermined progressive policy enactment in America since the 1960s. He writes that America has not become more conservative, rather that Republicans have been able to exploit declining levels of trust to gain power. In chapter 8, under the

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-75264193569542460842010-09-08T22:57:00.000-04:002010-09-12T10:11:18.322-04:00

Greg Sargent at the Washington Post repeats an oft made argument among Liberals that Barack Obama's woes are not the result of Democratic overreach and the pursuit of a left of center political agenda outside of the American mainstream. Sargent writes: Dem losses this fall will be largely due to the economy and unemployment, which would have been far worse today without the stimulus. What's more,

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-45035650145609234022010-09-02T21:36:00.000-04:002010-09-02T21:37:00.575-04:00

A little historical perspective courtesy of Jim Geraghty and Charlie Cook: Cook Political Report from September 1, 2006: 35 GOP House seats rated as Lean or Toss Up; 9 Democrat House seats rated Lean or Toss Up. Actual swing in November: 31 Democrat challengers beat GOP incumbents or won open seat races; no GOP challengers beat any Democrat incumbents. Cook Political Report from September 2,

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-65831238921461887182010-09-01T08:04:00.000-04:002010-09-01T08:05:20.950-04:00

(St. Mary’s City, MD) August 26, 2010—A public forum for candidates seeking party nominations in Maryland’s 5th Congressional District will be held 6:30-8:30 p.m. Tuesday, September 7, at Auerbach Auditorium in St. Mary’s Hall at St. Mary’s College of Maryland. The 5th Congressional District seat is currently represented by Democrat Steny Hoyer, the House Majority Leader. Three Democrats,

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-37347712336308690282010-08-30T14:21:00.000-04:002010-09-02T17:01:16.371-04:00

I have been arguing for many months that the 2010 midterms would be a devastating election for Democrats - not the typical midterm rout for the president's party but rather a political earthquake. The first real rumbles of the earthquake began in the Summer of 2009 when town hall protests over health reform became front page news. At the time, many in the traditional press and within the

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-11485103103370126172010-08-28T13:30:00.000-04:002010-10-02T22:41:39.710-04:00

Please see my latest post, regarding the New Newsweek poll. Update: According to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com Princeton Survey Research provided him with the data on the missing cases that were not included in the offical release. With that data in hand, Blumenthal was able to replicate the survey results and the 45% to 45% tie. My original post was intended to criticize Newsweek for

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-19114468926744983312010-08-23T09:25:00.000-04:002010-08-23T22:26:39.823-04:00

A new poll conducted by Center Maryland/OpinionWorks found what most analysts had long expected - that former Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich is in no danger of losing the GOP nomination to newcomer Brian Murphy. The survey of 600 likely General Election voters (and a much smaller sample of 170 Rebublicans) found that Ehrlich leads Murphy 75% to 13% with only 11% undecided. The poll is

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-57578346260768455862010-08-19T19:30:00.000-04:002010-08-20T16:35:19.773-04:00

A new poll confirms that the race for governor in Maryland continues to be tight. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Martin O'Malley and Bob Ehrlich tied at 47% to 47%. The race has been tied all summer and nothing much has changed.  Recent campaign fundraising reports show that Martin O'Malley has a $4.7 million cash advantage over Ehrlich - and these numbers suggest that O'Malley will

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-91197798724020094042010-08-19T13:16:00.000-04:002010-08-19T13:16:25.971-04:00

Facing awful polling numbers, an unpopular President, and a dreadful economy Democrats have sought to change the narrative of the 2010 midterms by portraying Republican candidates as being "outside the mainstream" and "extreme." This is hardly a new strategy and Republicans have often sought to define Democratic candidates as too liberal for the American mainstream. There is mounting evidence,

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-59049107826595203912010-08-16T22:47:00.000-04:002010-08-16T22:55:34.504-04:00

There is general agreement that the GOP is likely to make significant gains in the coming midterm elections. All questions now focus on just how many seats the Republicans will gain in the House and Senate. In some respects that is a moot point. With only 41 seats in the U.S. Senate, Republicans have been able to block or force significant alterations to many Democratic initiatives. Health reform

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-67703179986250141022010-08-12T16:17:00.000-04:002010-08-13T14:56:55.152-04:00

Update III: And now it makes sense - Ehrlich raised $3.2 million, but only has $2 million in the bank. So O'Malley has a tremendous cash advantage. No wonder Ehrlich wanted to change the story. Update II: The Ehrlich camp is reporting that they raised $3.2 million - essentially on par with what the O'Malley camp raised during the same period. There is no doubt that O'Malley will have raise more 

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-70519812288952547822010-08-10T23:13:00.000-04:002010-08-11T09:46:48.676-04:00

Sarah Palin waded into Maryland politics last week when she released a short statement endorsing Brian Murphy in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Palin said Murphy is "a pro-life, pro-second amendment, commonsense conservative and a firm believer in the free market and the cause for energy independence. Brian has the private sector experience that is so lacking in government today. He knows

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-22206361621602964602010-08-05T09:41:00.000-04:002010-08-06T07:39:30.483-04:00

On Wednesday, August 4 a federal judge voided California's ban on same sex marriage (proposition 8) declaring that it violated the due process and equal protection clauses of the U.S. Constitution. The issues tends to be a bit divisive and as one can imagine the reaction to the ruling has varied - but there is one narrative that I find especially troubling. On supported of Proposition 8 said this

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-65540744711030822912010-08-03T11:35:00.000-04:002010-08-03T11:35:03.542-04:00

Last week, some pundits wondered aloud if Democrats were staging a mini rally against Republicans. The Gallup tracking poll reported a Democratic lead in the so-called generic ballot question for two consecutive weeks. Charlie Cook wrote "One interpretation of recent results is that the momentum in this critical midterm election has shifted and the Republican wave has subsided. Another

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-53824856078656542092010-07-29T16:37:00.000-04:002010-07-29T16:56:57.208-04:00

The always great William Galston takes a look at just how much public opinion of the Democrats and Republicans has shifted among Independents. Galston considers the recent PEW poll "On the whole, 58 percent of voters see Democrats as liberal or very liberal, while 56 percent see Republicans as conservative or very conservative; no surprise there. But voters now place themselves much closer to the

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-50861734603400483272010-07-27T13:25:00.000-04:002010-07-27T19:43:35.179-04:00

Maryland political junkies have been treated to a slew of statewide polls lately - we've been treated to 4 new polls in as many weeks. In general, the polling data released during the first half of the last four weeks mostly suggested that Governor Martin O'Malley is in danger of losing his job and that former Governor Bob Ehrlich is gaining momentum in his quest to reclaim his old job. But the

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-73954065199407716122010-07-12T12:31:00.000-04:002010-07-12T13:57:38.399-04:00

In a recent radio interview with John Domen I was asked whether all the polling on the Maryland race was telling us anything. The reporter wondered whether it was a forgone conclusion that Democrat Martin O'Malley would win given the Democrat's registration advantage in Maryland (roughly 58% D to 27% R).  I said that the race was anything but a safe bet for O'Malley - in fact I said O'Malley

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2420171132076321654.post-6637731410892451782010-07-02T16:32:00.000-04:002010-07-02T16:34:54.096-04:00

A new poll from Magellan Strategies shows Republican Bob Ehrlich holds a 3 point lead over incumbent Governor Martin O’Malley, 46% to 43%. Another 4% of voters prefer “another candidate”, and 7% are undecided. This poll comes on the heels of a Rasmussen poll that showed the race tied at 45%. Since announcing his candidacy, Ehrlich has steadily improved his position, while O'Malley has been losing

Todd Eberlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14634156953096877002noreply@blogger.com0