4/9/2012: As a quick update - any doubt about the present dysfunctional state of the Maryland Democratic party should be put to rest by looking to the mess that is the final day of the 2012 legislative session. Seeing conference committees or vote-oramas on the final day is neither new nor a sign of chaos but seeing the House Ways and Means committee meeting to discuss gambling in PG county INSTEAD of the two chambers reconciling the budget is a sign of chaos. Two party competition has a way of focusing parties....
Original Post:
Senate Majority Leader Rob Garagiola's defeat in the MD-6 legislative primary will have reverberations felt well beyond the district. In many ways, the Garagiola defeat is a sign of hard times ahead for the Maryland Democratic party. First, let's address the Garagiola loss. Garagiola is a powerful member of the state Senate and he enjoyed the backing of most of the Democratic party establishment in the state. Senate President Mike Miller drew the district for Garagiola and Steny Hoyer backed Garagiola in the primary. John Delaney was a novice politician running in a Democratic primary on a platform of fiscal conservatism. Gargiola had the backing of the unions and Moveon.org. By all accounts, Garagiola should have won a closed Democratic primary. So why did he lose? Because Maryland's Democratic party is quite different from most other state Democratic parties.
Nationally, the Republican and Democratic parties have sorted rather neatly into two ideologically homogeneous parties. The Democrats have become the home of political liberals and the Republicans are home to conservatives. More moderate voters either loosely associate with one party or the other or eschew both. The ideological sorting is especially evident among elected officials and it began in earnest at the end of the 1960s.
But something odd happened in the Free State. In many respects the great American ideological realignment passed Maryland by. Maryland remains home to a species long thought extinct by many a political observer - the conservative Democrat. They defeated Senator Millard Tydings in 1950 and his son Joseph in 1970. They delivered the state to George Wallace in the 1972 primary. They nominated perennial candidate George Mahoney for Senator in 1952 and again for Governor in 1966 - only to see him lose both times to a moderate Republican. They nearly helped elect Ellen Sauerbrey in 1994 and embarrassed Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in the 2002 Democratic primary (Fustero who?) and in the general elected Republican Bob Ehrlich. They elected John Delaney on Tuesday night.
Democrats have long enjoyed a voter registration advantage in the state, though it has declined. In 1966 Democrats claimed 72% of the electorate, that fell to 67% in 1986, and 56% today. Republicans were 26% in 1966 and remain 27% today. Now the growing number of independent voters tend to vote Republican - suggesting they came from among the Democrats' once large conservative ranks, but conservative Democrats remain and are crucial to the party's dominance in the state Assembly. Conservative Democrats help send Kevin Kelly, John Donoghue, Johnny Wood Jr., John Bohanan, Roy Dyson, Jim Brochin, Ronald Young, John Astle, Jim Mathias and others to the Assembly from districts that could as easily elect Republicans.
The Democrats' success in Maryland has stemmed from the party's ability to maintain a balance between the interests of more rural southern Democrats an urban and suburban liberals and minority voters. For decades the party has done this well. Contrary to the claims of many Republicans, "the Peoples Republic of Maryland" has never been the overtaxed, over-regulated, business hating environment they claim. Rather Maryland's lawmakers have often found a middle ground. The balancing act has kept liberals happy and prevented conservative Democrats from casting, or defending, votes on many divisive issues. When conservative Democrats have considered a revolt, considered joining with minority Republicans, The House Speaker and Senate President could keep them in line via the power they enjoy to reward or punish.
The Assembly leadership is quite powerful in Maryland. They control committee assignments, they control access to the floor and the calendar. If you cross them they can harm your career and sideline your initiatives. Please them and they can reward you... but there are growing signs that there are limits to the rewards they can offer and power based only on the ability to punish cannot be easily maintained.
Consider some of the supposed rewards - I'll start with committee assignments. Most members of the Assembly want to advance in their careers. They want a shot at being chair, they want a shot at a significant committee. The problem is the Assembly is a body in great stasis. As chronicled by Josh Kurtz in a great piece at CenterMaryland Mike Busch is the "longest-tenured speaker in state history... Adrienne Jones... the longest-serving speaker pro tem... Kumar Barve... the longest-serving House majority leader... Joe Vallario and Sheila Hixson...the longest-serving chairmen of their respective committees." That long service may be great for some, but for others it just means no upward mobility. For Busch it means fewer prime spots to offer as rewards. Perhaps the next time Busch creates a dual committee supercommittee just to avoid the defeat of a bill he supports more members of his party will be speak up.
In the Senate, Majority Leader Rob Garagiola was supposed to be heading to Congress. Mike Miller gerrymandered a district just for him - MD-06. This would then create a reverse domino effect of open positions and allow for some advancement - even if it meant advancing to a figure head position like majority leader. It would also prove that loyalty to Miller can mean great things - like his endorsement and a tailor-made congressional district. But then a novice named John Delaney crushed Garagiola. The high powered help provided by Martin O'Malley and Steny Hoyer delivered nothing to Garagiola. The early pressure placed on Delaney by party higher ups to stay out failed. Now, Garagiola remains majority leader, so no advancements, no dominoes. Perhaps worse, the defeat calls into question Mike Miller's ability to deliver, his ability to reward. Perhaps next time a bill arises opposed by Republicans and conservative Democrats those Democrats won't fear joining a Republican filibuster. The loss also revealed schisms in the state party establishment - and it showed that even the support of the most prominent members of the party establishment is of little help. And never mind that to create the district for Garagiola, Rep. Chris Van Hollen's once safe 8th district was drastically redrawn and Van Hollen - chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee - will now have to fight for his seat. What a great way to treat a former colleague who has made the jump to Congress.
Even as Busch and Miller seem to have less to offer their members they seem to have plenty to offer themselves. Though very much ignored in the press, many members of the Assembly took note of how Busch and Miller treated themselves in the redistricting process. Speaker Busch has always been a little vulnerable in his Anne Arundel district - often finishing in a tight cluster among the top 4 candidates in a three member district. Busch remedied that situation by dividing district 30 into a new single member 30B and a two member 30A - 30A was made more Democratic and that's where Busch will run. Never mind that the division of districts into single member subdistricts was meant to be reserved for geographically large rural districts. Miller, not to be outdone, shifted his Prince Georges/Calvert county district 27 a bit further south into Calvert county to protect his own seat. But in doing so, Miller drew fellow Democrat Del. Joseph Vallario Jr. out of 27 and placed him in District 23B along with another Democrat Del. Marvin Holmes.
One may as well consider the treatment of Democratic Senator Jim Brochin. Brochin is a conservative representing a marginally Democratic district in Baltimore county. Frequently a thorn in the side of Miller and Gov. O'Malley. Brochin's district was shifted north and made decidedly more Republican so that Democrats in his district could be used to maintain the size of Baltimore City's delegation. Many members, even those who disagreed with Brochin, were shocked by the willingness to sacrifice a member to settle a political score.
Starting to get the picture? There's seemingly little to offer members other than punishment and the rewards are reserved for the leadership. What's to keep dissident voices in line? Even reliable Democratic voices are starting to openly challenge Miller.
With regard to Governor O'Malley, he was quite cautious during his first term. After an initial special session and modest tax increases the Governor spent the rest of his term holding most spending flat and avoiding any groundbreaking or controversial issues. Then he won reelection, then he became chair of the Democratic Governors Association, then he started thinking about 2016.... then things changed.
As his national star has risen O'Malley's Maryland star has dimmed. Prior governors have used redistricting to curry favor with members of the Assembly, to win support on key initiatives. Yet last session O'Malley introduced a modestly ambitious agenda and then stood on the sidelines and watched it be ignored - ignored after winning re-election by 14 points, by an Assembly dominated by members of his own party and soon to be subject to redistricting at his hands... but nothing. O'Malley watched as same-sex marriage legislation died and then only took it up as an important issue after New York Governor Andrew Cuomo was able to push it through a divided legislature - and then it was all about 2016 and a Democratic presidential primary. But who actually delivered same-sex marriage? It was Speaker Busch and his joint committee and it was President Miller and his ability to quash any threat of a filibuster by a coalition of Democrats and Republicans (at least on this issue).
This session Governor O'Malley rolled out his most ambitious agenda ever. The elimination of tax deductions for upper income earners, the application of the state sales tax to gasoline, a state-imposed ban on septic systems, off shore wind (again)... just to name a few initiatives. But the session started with O'Malley suggesting an increase in the sales tax on the opening day - suddenly a day always dedicated to ceremony found Busch and Miller answering questions about the sales tax. As the session began President Miller quipped that he hoped O'Malley would find more time to spend in the state. The Senate essentially dismissed the O'Malley budget and created their own. Miller was unable (or unwilling) to stop the Democratic and Republican coalition that joined to filibuster the septic bill. As the 90 day session nears a close the House and Senate are far apart on the budget and the one person who seems to have no role in the negotiations? Martin O'Malley. Rather than deal with the unfinished O'Malley agenda the Assembly is wasting time ratifying the 17th amendment - in effect since 1913. And as the Assembly is caught up in a budget debate that threatens much of the rest of the O'Malley agenda the Governor is suddenly talking about increasing the sales tax again.
Maryland's Democratic party is in disarray. The Garagiola defeat simply shined a bit more light on the problem. Leadership in the Assembly are faced with restless members eager to advance, yet there is little the leadership can offer. The state faces significant challenges, but its governor has shifted his gaze to a national stage. His proposals are more about national primary politics than about Maryland politics. O'Malley is forcing the state Democratic party to defend issues that are well in-line with the national Democratic party but more left of center than the Maryland Democratic party. As party leadership is less able to hold members in line many conservative Democrats and moderate Democrats from rural and even suburban parts of the state are going to become more concerned with their electoral needs than with the party's needs.
To look at the House and Senate today based solely on numbers it would be easy to dismiss any talk of a party in trouble. But Republicans hold 43 of 141 seats in the House. A review of the election results from 2010 suggests the party came close to holding quite a few more. If Democrats cannot fix their current problems they will face, within the next two election cycles, a House with over 50 Republicans - unprecedented in Maryland. In the Senate, Republicans took a hit in 2010 falling to 12 out of 47 seats - but consider the Democratic seats in Districts 3, 29, 30, and 38 - they are far from safe and a few other districts have seen Democratic margins shrink significantly since 2006. Republicans need only 19 seats to mount a filibuster and therefore alter the power balance in the chamber. So far, Democrats have been able to capitalize on the fact that the Maryland Republican party has been an organizational mess frequently unable to field credible candidates. There are signs that is ending.
After the 2010 elections Republicans for the first time hold 50% of all local offices - though some are quick to ignore this milestone to do so is narrowminded. This marked a significant movement by state Republicans. For 2012 Republicans are fielding credible challengers (as opposed to challenges) against Dutch Ruppersberger in the 2nd congressional district and Chris Van Hollen in the 8th. Dan Bongino is likely to make a serious run against Senator Ben Cardin - none of these GOP candidates are likely to win but it's a sign of life in a party that has often offered no or only token challenges. Even in the 5th district, Steny Hoyer faced a credible challenger (as opposed to challenge) in Charles Lollar in 2010 and will again from House of Delegates Minority Leader Tony O'Donnell. Hoyer is in no danger, but Republicans are learning that the party cannot afford to let Democrats go unchallenged. Yes, Lollar lost by 30 points, but his coattails elected many Republicans to county office in St. Mary's and Calvert county in 2010 - two counties that he won easily.
To focus only on the margin of victory or loss while ignoring the effects on the rest of the ballot is a mistake made by armchair analysts in some random blogger's forum. It's not a mistake that can be made by party leadership. It's from these local offices that the party develops a bench of potential candidates for the Assembly or other offices. Republicans are realizing that to win down ballot they must run up ballot - even if it's a losing race. Even if the Democrats' real registration advantage means winning a statewide race will likely always be a losing battle for Republicans it's a battle they seem to be waking to the need to fight. In 2010 the the state GOP hung its statewide hopes on Bob Ehrlich and did not bother to mount real challenges for any other statewide office - why would voters take such a party seriously?
Now I've been writing about Maryland politics long enough to know that I will soon be the recipient of numerous e-mails telling me how the "radical, right wing, tea party Republicans" will never be competitive in Maryland. Well sorry folks, regardless of how much the national Republican party has moved right the Maryland Republican party is little more conservative today than it was in 1994 when Ellen Sauerbrey came with 6,000 votes of being governor. But the Maryland Democratic party has moved left - moved closer to the national party. That movement is placing real pressure on the state party coalition. Perhaps more challenging for the party has been the Republicans' newly discovered weapon - the internet driven petition initiative and referendum. Now, when conservative Democrats cast a vote "for the party" on a tough issue they can't rely on voters' short memories. Likewise, even if they vote against the issue the petition and referendum will keep the public focused on it - it's only a matter of time until a hot button referendum vote coincides with a state election. The presence of same-sex marriage and the Maryland Dream Act on the 2012 ballot may well boost Republican chances in the 2nd, 6th, and 8th districts and in the senate race. Imagine the impact in a non-presidential election.
The Maryland Democratic party needs a shakeup. It needs leadership that is concerned with - of all things - Maryland. Democrats claim 56% of registered voters to Republicans 27% - but the fastest growing segment of the Maryland electorate is unaffiliated voters... and they vote Republican. Maryland is not a 2 to 1 Democratic state. At best it's about 60/40 in actual voting. Democrats have been able to use their institutional advantages to turn that 60% of the vote into 70% of House seats and 75% of Senate seats. But for how much longer? If the party continues to push conservative Democrats away a 55/45 state is not impossible to imagine - and with it a power balance in the General Assembly unseen in the modern era. And O'Malley's new found passion for tax increases (in the midst of a very weak economic recovery) and opposition to rural development (sorry about the collapse in value of your family's farmland) is providing Republicans with an incredible opening - 2012 and especially 2014 will tell whether the minority party is truly ready to compete.
The party also needs to ask whether it will continue to be the uniquely Maryland Democratic party that has dominated the state since the age of Jackson (never mind that little respite during Reconstruction) or whether it will become a state-based clone of the national party. That would make the party more ideologically homogeneous and as such much easier to mange. But, like the national party it would emulate, it would be smaller and less powerful than it once was. The next Democratic governor will have a lot to do with how that internal party conversation will go. I suspect much of the primary will be dedicated to that conversation and the election may well provide the decision. I hope it's a good one.
Showing posts with label O'Malley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label O'Malley. Show all posts
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Down to the Wire on Marriage Equality
A joint committee in the House of Delegates voted 25-18 Tuesday night to send the marriage equality bill to the floor. On Wednesday the bill was held over until Thursday. Proponents say they are a few votes short of the 71 needed to pass, but the speed with which the measure is moving toward a vote suggests the votes are either there or nearly there.
Recent efforts to court Republican support bore fruit when Anne Arundel Republican Bob Costa voted in favor of the bill. Republican Del. Pat Hogan (Frederick) had indicated that he was undecided, but has since declared his intention to vote "No." Democratic Del. Sam Arora continues to confuse - last year he supported marriage equality, then changed his mind and opposed it in committee, and then changed his mind and supported it on the floor. Arora abstained during the committee vote on Tuesday.
Arora and other members of the committee who subsequently voted against the bill, voiced support throughout the hearing for amendments that would make civil unions legal in Maryland rather than legalizing same sex marriage. All efforts to amend the bill were defeated.
The delay in floor consideration will give marriage equality opponents ample time to prepare amendments to the bill. The votes on the amendments will be an early indicator of whether the 71 votes needed for passage have been secured.
Several delegates have argued that the issue of same sex marriage should be decided by voters at referendum. Of course, we elect members of the Assembly based on the assumption that they are capable of making decisions on our behalf. Never mind that nearly all bills passed by the legislature and signed by the governor are subject to petition and referendum by the voters. Voters will have multiple chances to be heard on this issue - in the petition phase, in any resultant referendum, and in the 2014 election. In the meantime, members of the Assembly were elected for the express purpose of considering legislation and casting votes. Those who lack the courage or will to cast "the tough votes" need to do the folks of Maryland a favor and let someone else run for their seat in 2014.
On a final note, if the General Assembly does pass this bill then Martin O'Malley deserves a tremendous amount of credit for putting the full weight of his office behind the measure. I am a frequent critic of O'Malley - last year over his silence on marriage equality, in the summer and fall for his disgracefully gerrymandered congressional districts, and this session for a very regressive package of tax increases, and I'm especially bothered by O'Malley's happy descent into the polarizing Us v Them rhetoric of the extreme partisans who control the two national parties. But in this instance and on this issue O'Malley has literally staked his reputation on the legalization of same sex marriage in the Free State. He should be commended and, if the measure becomes law, credited.
The severe divisions that this measure will reveal within the state's Democratic coalition will be an issue for another day.
Recent efforts to court Republican support bore fruit when Anne Arundel Republican Bob Costa voted in favor of the bill. Republican Del. Pat Hogan (Frederick) had indicated that he was undecided, but has since declared his intention to vote "No." Democratic Del. Sam Arora continues to confuse - last year he supported marriage equality, then changed his mind and opposed it in committee, and then changed his mind and supported it on the floor. Arora abstained during the committee vote on Tuesday.
Arora and other members of the committee who subsequently voted against the bill, voiced support throughout the hearing for amendments that would make civil unions legal in Maryland rather than legalizing same sex marriage. All efforts to amend the bill were defeated.
The delay in floor consideration will give marriage equality opponents ample time to prepare amendments to the bill. The votes on the amendments will be an early indicator of whether the 71 votes needed for passage have been secured.
Several delegates have argued that the issue of same sex marriage should be decided by voters at referendum. Of course, we elect members of the Assembly based on the assumption that they are capable of making decisions on our behalf. Never mind that nearly all bills passed by the legislature and signed by the governor are subject to petition and referendum by the voters. Voters will have multiple chances to be heard on this issue - in the petition phase, in any resultant referendum, and in the 2014 election. In the meantime, members of the Assembly were elected for the express purpose of considering legislation and casting votes. Those who lack the courage or will to cast "the tough votes" need to do the folks of Maryland a favor and let someone else run for their seat in 2014.
On a final note, if the General Assembly does pass this bill then Martin O'Malley deserves a tremendous amount of credit for putting the full weight of his office behind the measure. I am a frequent critic of O'Malley - last year over his silence on marriage equality, in the summer and fall for his disgracefully gerrymandered congressional districts, and this session for a very regressive package of tax increases, and I'm especially bothered by O'Malley's happy descent into the polarizing Us v Them rhetoric of the extreme partisans who control the two national parties. But in this instance and on this issue O'Malley has literally staked his reputation on the legalization of same sex marriage in the Free State. He should be commended and, if the measure becomes law, credited.
The severe divisions that this measure will reveal within the state's Democratic coalition will be an issue for another day.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Defensive O'Malley Hurts Only Himself
Maryland is unique in that it has two independently elected executive branch offices closely involved with state finances. The Governor has the power under the state constitution to set the state's budget and the General Assembly can do little to alter the Governor's priorities. The Comptroller is the state's tax collector and sits on the Board of Revenue Estimates and more important is an equal voice to the Governor on the Board of Public Works.
Our current Comptroller, Peter Franchot, would like to be governor. Our current Governor, Martin O'Malley, would like to be President - increasingly the career goals of these two men have been on a collision course.
Sporting a very modest record of accomplishments during his time as governor, O'Malley has put forth a very aggressive legislative agenda. His agenda includes significant tax increases during a time of a weak economic recovery. From decreased deductions for middle and upper income Marylanders to incredibly regressive increases in the gas tax and the state's so-called flush tax O'Malley has spared few from the pain of tax increases.
To quote President Obama, raising taxes during a weak economy is not a good idea. Unfortunately for O'Malley, the state's electoral calendar does not mesh well with his needs. The next governor and every member of the General Assembly will be on the ballot in 2014 - 2 short years from now. As such, O'Malley knows that no rational member of the Assembly would be willing to take politically costly votes the closer we get to the next election. Likewise, as each year passes, state term limits make O'Malley more of a lame duck. For O'Malley he must swing for the fences in the current legislative session. Neither the 2013 nor 2014 session will be any more favorable territory.
So O'Malley has put forward an unpopular package of tax increases and he is experiencing significant push back from within his own party. If O'Malley loses and his proposals are defeated or significantly altered he will appear weak - a Democratic governor that cannot get an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature in a solidly Democratic state to approve tax increases. Such a loss would hardly form a solid foundation upon which to launch a national campaign.
Enter Comptroller Franchot. As the state's tax and revenue collector and as an independently elected representative of the people Franchot, like Comptrollers before him, has exercised the power of his office to wade into the fight over taxes and spending. A likely candidate for governor in 2014, Franchot has been vocal in his opposition to tax increases during a weak economy. Not opposition to tax increases, just opposition during a weak economy. For a potential gubernatorial candidate it's not a bad position to take given a recent Washington Post poll that showed significant opposition to O'Malley's agenda. I hasten to add that Ken Ulman, Howard County Executive and another possible contender for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, has been equally critical of other aspects of O'Malley's agenda - especially the Governor's proposal to improve the state's budget shortfalls by simply shifting a significant portion of the costs for teachers' pensions onto the counties (which would of course result in local tax increases).
Likely quite frustrated by all of the in-party push back, O'Malley lashed out at Franchot today calling him "our Mitt Romney." O'Malley explained that he views Franchot as an opportunistic flip-flopper simply voicing opposition for political expediency. Franchot's response was devastating "I’m sorry if I’m getting in the way of his presidential efforts."
For O'Malley the whole episode just looks bad. First, O'Malley has served to make the party divisions over his budget front page news. Instead of railing against tea party extremists, O'Malley is broadcasting the fact that in his own state many Democrats are opposed to his tax plans. Suddenly opposition to O'Malley's tax increases is not simply a partisan affair. Perhaps worse, by bringing Mitt Romney's name into the fight O'Malley plays right into the criticisms that he is too concerned with national politics and not paying sufficient attention to the state he was elected to govern. Why not call Franchot a "Pipkin Democrat" or an "O'Donnell Follower" or "another Jim Brochin"... anything that would demonstrate a connection to state politics?
What's more, O'Malley is the de facto head of the state's Democratic party. But his personal attack on Franchot and the dissension within the ranks that it spotlights suggests a chief executive unable to unify his party. Imagine if O'Malley had instead said of Franchot, "the great, and sometimes frustrating, thing about Democrats is that we do not insist on ideological purity. Unlike our Republican counterparts we embrace diverse perspectives. The Comptroller and I may disagree on this issue, but there are far more issues that unite us as Democrats." Instead, he launched an ill conceived attack.
In one sentence, O'Malley elevated the story of party divisions and opposition to his agenda and furthers the narrative that he is otherwise engaged in matters of national politics during a critical period in Maryland politics. He also gave Franchot a lot of free publicity and highlighted the fact that Franchot shares the opinion of most Marylanders when it comes to tax increases. In short, O'Malley hurt no one but himself.
Our current Comptroller, Peter Franchot, would like to be governor. Our current Governor, Martin O'Malley, would like to be President - increasingly the career goals of these two men have been on a collision course.
Sporting a very modest record of accomplishments during his time as governor, O'Malley has put forth a very aggressive legislative agenda. His agenda includes significant tax increases during a time of a weak economic recovery. From decreased deductions for middle and upper income Marylanders to incredibly regressive increases in the gas tax and the state's so-called flush tax O'Malley has spared few from the pain of tax increases.
To quote President Obama, raising taxes during a weak economy is not a good idea. Unfortunately for O'Malley, the state's electoral calendar does not mesh well with his needs. The next governor and every member of the General Assembly will be on the ballot in 2014 - 2 short years from now. As such, O'Malley knows that no rational member of the Assembly would be willing to take politically costly votes the closer we get to the next election. Likewise, as each year passes, state term limits make O'Malley more of a lame duck. For O'Malley he must swing for the fences in the current legislative session. Neither the 2013 nor 2014 session will be any more favorable territory.
So O'Malley has put forward an unpopular package of tax increases and he is experiencing significant push back from within his own party. If O'Malley loses and his proposals are defeated or significantly altered he will appear weak - a Democratic governor that cannot get an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature in a solidly Democratic state to approve tax increases. Such a loss would hardly form a solid foundation upon which to launch a national campaign.
Enter Comptroller Franchot. As the state's tax and revenue collector and as an independently elected representative of the people Franchot, like Comptrollers before him, has exercised the power of his office to wade into the fight over taxes and spending. A likely candidate for governor in 2014, Franchot has been vocal in his opposition to tax increases during a weak economy. Not opposition to tax increases, just opposition during a weak economy. For a potential gubernatorial candidate it's not a bad position to take given a recent Washington Post poll that showed significant opposition to O'Malley's agenda. I hasten to add that Ken Ulman, Howard County Executive and another possible contender for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, has been equally critical of other aspects of O'Malley's agenda - especially the Governor's proposal to improve the state's budget shortfalls by simply shifting a significant portion of the costs for teachers' pensions onto the counties (which would of course result in local tax increases).
Likely quite frustrated by all of the in-party push back, O'Malley lashed out at Franchot today calling him "our Mitt Romney." O'Malley explained that he views Franchot as an opportunistic flip-flopper simply voicing opposition for political expediency. Franchot's response was devastating "I’m sorry if I’m getting in the way of his presidential efforts."
For O'Malley the whole episode just looks bad. First, O'Malley has served to make the party divisions over his budget front page news. Instead of railing against tea party extremists, O'Malley is broadcasting the fact that in his own state many Democrats are opposed to his tax plans. Suddenly opposition to O'Malley's tax increases is not simply a partisan affair. Perhaps worse, by bringing Mitt Romney's name into the fight O'Malley plays right into the criticisms that he is too concerned with national politics and not paying sufficient attention to the state he was elected to govern. Why not call Franchot a "Pipkin Democrat" or an "O'Donnell Follower" or "another Jim Brochin"... anything that would demonstrate a connection to state politics?
What's more, O'Malley is the de facto head of the state's Democratic party. But his personal attack on Franchot and the dissension within the ranks that it spotlights suggests a chief executive unable to unify his party. Imagine if O'Malley had instead said of Franchot, "the great, and sometimes frustrating, thing about Democrats is that we do not insist on ideological purity. Unlike our Republican counterparts we embrace diverse perspectives. The Comptroller and I may disagree on this issue, but there are far more issues that unite us as Democrats." Instead, he launched an ill conceived attack.
In one sentence, O'Malley elevated the story of party divisions and opposition to his agenda and furthers the narrative that he is otherwise engaged in matters of national politics during a critical period in Maryland politics. He also gave Franchot a lot of free publicity and highlighted the fact that Franchot shares the opinion of most Marylanders when it comes to tax increases. In short, O'Malley hurt no one but himself.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
O'Malley's Tax Plans May Hurt Democrats in 2012
In a recent post I criticized Governor O'Malley's proposed tax increase on gas and the plan to double the flush tax as too regressive to be acceptable. Now, the good folks at the Washington Post have done the math and show just how unfair O'Malley's tax increases would be.
According to an analysis by the Post low and then middle income Marylanders will face the most significant increases in their tax burden should all of O'Malley's proposals be accepted. And which group would see the smallest increase in their tax burden? Families earning over $500,000 per year. In fact, the percentage increase in tax burden for a single person earning $34,000 per year would be double that of a family earning $500,000 per year. Of the nearly $1 billion in tax and fee increases proposed by the governor only $200 million - 20% - would come from limiting tax deductions from higher income Marylanders. The remaining 80% on the increases come from regressive excise taxes.
President Obama has repeatedly argued for tax increases only on folks earning at least $250,000 per year, arguing that Republican opposition stems from the Republican party's desire to protect the wealthy at the expense of every one else. Martin O'Malley is no mere bystander in this national debate. As Chair of the Democratic Governors Association he is a spokesperson and symbol for his party. O'Malley's incredibly regressive tax proposals undermine the Democratic party message and suggest a party unconcerned with the plight of working class families - and that's no small problem. No doubt, defenders of the Governor's proposal will be quick to point out that the increased out of pocket costs for a family earning $500,000 per year will be $1,347 while the increase for a single person earning $34,000 will be $112. But ask yourself - who will feel the loss of income more acutely?
Working class voters will be crucial to the Democrats' success or failure in the 2012 elections. Forget all of the talk about Barack Obama winning in 2008 because of a surge in turnout by young or minority voters - by people who never voted before. Exit polls from 2008 show the share of first time voters in 2008 was exactly the same as in 2004. The real key to Obama's and the Democrats' victories in 2008 was the return of working class voters to the Democratic fold. As shown in the figure below, Democrats have been experiencing a steady erosion of support among working class voters since the late 1950s.
Democrats cannot win back working class voters by imposing regressive and punitive taxes on them in the midst of a weak economic recovery. Governor O'Malley's proposals would increase the cost of driving to work and the cost of goods and services through higher gas taxes, they would decrease disposable income by raising the flush tax (especially in rural and poor parts of the state where septic systems are common) and increasing utility costs.
And while Democrats nationally claim to favor progressive taxation that would ensure the wealthiest pay "their fair share" Governor O'Malley's plan would impose a greater burden (as a percentage of income) on low income, working, and middle class voters in Maryland as compared to the wealthiest earners in the state.
O'Malley has said that he gave a great deal of thought to his proposed tax increases. If true, that may be the saddest commentary of all. Democrats cannot win without the working class, and working class families cannot emerge from the great recession under the burden of regressive taxes.
According to an analysis by the Post low and then middle income Marylanders will face the most significant increases in their tax burden should all of O'Malley's proposals be accepted. And which group would see the smallest increase in their tax burden? Families earning over $500,000 per year. In fact, the percentage increase in tax burden for a single person earning $34,000 per year would be double that of a family earning $500,000 per year. Of the nearly $1 billion in tax and fee increases proposed by the governor only $200 million - 20% - would come from limiting tax deductions from higher income Marylanders. The remaining 80% on the increases come from regressive excise taxes.
President Obama has repeatedly argued for tax increases only on folks earning at least $250,000 per year, arguing that Republican opposition stems from the Republican party's desire to protect the wealthy at the expense of every one else. Martin O'Malley is no mere bystander in this national debate. As Chair of the Democratic Governors Association he is a spokesperson and symbol for his party. O'Malley's incredibly regressive tax proposals undermine the Democratic party message and suggest a party unconcerned with the plight of working class families - and that's no small problem. No doubt, defenders of the Governor's proposal will be quick to point out that the increased out of pocket costs for a family earning $500,000 per year will be $1,347 while the increase for a single person earning $34,000 will be $112. But ask yourself - who will feel the loss of income more acutely?
Working class voters will be crucial to the Democrats' success or failure in the 2012 elections. Forget all of the talk about Barack Obama winning in 2008 because of a surge in turnout by young or minority voters - by people who never voted before. Exit polls from 2008 show the share of first time voters in 2008 was exactly the same as in 2004. The real key to Obama's and the Democrats' victories in 2008 was the return of working class voters to the Democratic fold. As shown in the figure below, Democrats have been experiencing a steady erosion of support among working class voters since the late 1950s.
Source: American National Election Studies
In 2008 there was a reversal of the trend and working class voters returned to the Democratic party. These voters abandoned the party in the 2010 midterms and delivered control of the House of Representatives to the Republicans. If Democrats cannot win them back in 2012 the party will lose the White House and the Senate and Republicans will once again have unified control of the Executive and Legislative branches. Democrats cannot win back working class voters by imposing regressive and punitive taxes on them in the midst of a weak economic recovery. Governor O'Malley's proposals would increase the cost of driving to work and the cost of goods and services through higher gas taxes, they would decrease disposable income by raising the flush tax (especially in rural and poor parts of the state where septic systems are common) and increasing utility costs.
And while Democrats nationally claim to favor progressive taxation that would ensure the wealthiest pay "their fair share" Governor O'Malley's plan would impose a greater burden (as a percentage of income) on low income, working, and middle class voters in Maryland as compared to the wealthiest earners in the state.
O'Malley has said that he gave a great deal of thought to his proposed tax increases. If true, that may be the saddest commentary of all. Democrats cannot win without the working class, and working class families cannot emerge from the great recession under the burden of regressive taxes.
Monday, January 30, 2012
O'Malley's Gas Tax Gambit
Everyone was waiting for Governor O'Malley's gas tax proposal - conspicuously absent from his recent budget submission - but few could have anticipated that O'Malley would propose adding a 6% sales tax to gasoline and effectively add $0.21 per gallon over the next three years.
This is, of course, a ludicrous proposal. No member of the General Assembly elected by a victory margin of less than 10 percentage points would even consider such an increase - especially when coupled with the other tax increases proposed by O'Malley.
But O'Malley has no expectation of a $0.21 per gallon tax increase - rather O'Malley has decided to give the General Assembly political cover and make whatever gas tax increase they ultimately pass seem like a bargain for state residents.
Most folks were anticipating a proposed increase of $0.15, in line a state commission’s recent recommendation. Senate President Mike Miller has argued a $0.10 tax increase was more reasonable. More reasonable compared to $0.15? Maybe. But compared to $0.21? Absolutely.
So do not be fooled. Governor O'Malley does not expect the Assembly to increase the gas tax by $0.21 per gallon. Rather he thinks the $0.21 per gallon proposal will make residents thankful when the Assembly approves an increase of "only" $0.10 or $0.15. Wait and see how long it takes for members of the Assembly to step forward and "challenge" their governor by expressing firm opposition to the proposal... and then support for a "much lower" or "more reasonable" increase.
It's a cynical ploy, but one that will likely work. Unfortunately, it will be another regressive tax passed on to working families and another hit to the recovering economy. Between gas taxes, flush taxes, and higher tolls it becomes harder and harder to see how working class families will be able to recover from the Great Recession (remember when Democrats represented working families?). It also becomes harder to see any indication that O'Malley cares... his attention seems to have shifted to 2016 and the Democratic presidential primary.
O'Malley's 2012 agenda for the state must be giving Lt. Governor Anthony Brown serious heartburn - as he'll be the one asked to defend the record should he seek the Democratic nomination for governor in 2014.
O'Malley may help Republicans accomplish something that they have been unable to do on their own - become competitive with Democrats statewide. Major elements of O'Malley's agenda are opposed by majorities in the state and his positive approval rating is driven entirely by voters in Baltimore City and Prince Georges County according to a recent Post poll. Though Democrats continue to maintain a clear voter registration advantage over Republicans the annual voter registration report from the State Board of Elections shows the Democratic and Republican voter rolls shrank while unaffiliated registration grew - but in Maryland, most unaffiliated voters vote Republican. Likewise, though Democrats dominated statewide and federal elections in 2010, Republicans won 50% of all local offices for the first time since... the Civil War.
Two party competition is slowly coming to Maryland, O'Malley seems to have committed himself to hastening its arrival.
This is, of course, a ludicrous proposal. No member of the General Assembly elected by a victory margin of less than 10 percentage points would even consider such an increase - especially when coupled with the other tax increases proposed by O'Malley.
But O'Malley has no expectation of a $0.21 per gallon tax increase - rather O'Malley has decided to give the General Assembly political cover and make whatever gas tax increase they ultimately pass seem like a bargain for state residents.
Most folks were anticipating a proposed increase of $0.15, in line a state commission’s recent recommendation. Senate President Mike Miller has argued a $0.10 tax increase was more reasonable. More reasonable compared to $0.15? Maybe. But compared to $0.21? Absolutely.
So do not be fooled. Governor O'Malley does not expect the Assembly to increase the gas tax by $0.21 per gallon. Rather he thinks the $0.21 per gallon proposal will make residents thankful when the Assembly approves an increase of "only" $0.10 or $0.15. Wait and see how long it takes for members of the Assembly to step forward and "challenge" their governor by expressing firm opposition to the proposal... and then support for a "much lower" or "more reasonable" increase.
It's a cynical ploy, but one that will likely work. Unfortunately, it will be another regressive tax passed on to working families and another hit to the recovering economy. Between gas taxes, flush taxes, and higher tolls it becomes harder and harder to see how working class families will be able to recover from the Great Recession (remember when Democrats represented working families?). It also becomes harder to see any indication that O'Malley cares... his attention seems to have shifted to 2016 and the Democratic presidential primary.
O'Malley's 2012 agenda for the state must be giving Lt. Governor Anthony Brown serious heartburn - as he'll be the one asked to defend the record should he seek the Democratic nomination for governor in 2014.
O'Malley may help Republicans accomplish something that they have been unable to do on their own - become competitive with Democrats statewide. Major elements of O'Malley's agenda are opposed by majorities in the state and his positive approval rating is driven entirely by voters in Baltimore City and Prince Georges County according to a recent Post poll. Though Democrats continue to maintain a clear voter registration advantage over Republicans the annual voter registration report from the State Board of Elections shows the Democratic and Republican voter rolls shrank while unaffiliated registration grew - but in Maryland, most unaffiliated voters vote Republican. Likewise, though Democrats dominated statewide and federal elections in 2010, Republicans won 50% of all local offices for the first time since... the Civil War.
Two party competition is slowly coming to Maryland, O'Malley seems to have committed himself to hastening its arrival.
Monday, January 23, 2012
O'Malley's Budget Would Jeopardize Economic Recovery
Now is not the time to introduce significant and regressive tax increases on working families, nor is it the time to lose ground on education equality by shifting costs to economically unequal counties.
Last week Governor O'Malley unveiled his FY 2013 budget. As with all prior years, O'Malley had to deal with a structural deficit - this time amounting to roughly $1 billion of the budget's $14 billion total. With the exception of a 2007 special session O'Malley has opted to bring the budget into balance every year through spending cuts and one-time transfers from special funds. Even in the 2007 special session of the Maryland General Assembly the $800 million in new revenue generated by taxes on businesses and individuals were were coupled with $500 million in spending reductions. All told, O'Malley has cut spending by $7.5 billion during his tenure - a commendable accomplishment during very lean times.
For FY 2013, O'Malley continues to make cuts - roughly $600-800 million depending on the math - but decided as well that the time was right for more tax increases, what O'Malley describes as a balanced approach. I do not disagree with the need to consider additional sources of revenue, unfortunately O'Malley's concept of "balance" is anything but balanced. O'Malley proposes capping deductions for singles making more than $100,000 and couples making more than $150,000. Estimates are this would impact the top 20% of wage earners in the state - so this tax increase is not targeted at the top 1%, 5% or 10% - it hits deeply into the middle class in a very high cost of living state.
The capping of tax deductions is not the worst offender, however. Though the income tax provisions would work to make Maryland's income tax structure more progressive (a good thing) it is offset by several proposals that would be especially harmful.
O'Malley has proposed an end to a decades old practice of the state covering the cost of teachers' pensions by beginning a steady shift of that responsibility to the counties. Under the proposed budget $239 million in teachers' retirement costs would be shifted to cash-strapped counties. The governor's budget offsets some of the cost transfer by having the state assume responsibility for some of the teachers' Social Security payroll tax (formerly handled by the counties) and via revenue sharing from the new tax policies. But even with these measures the cost shift to counties is tremendous. Maryland is home to significant income inequality across and between counties and this cost shift will be especially burdensome on poor counties - counties where quality teachers are already hard enough to attract. Consider the stark contrast between Allegany County with a median household income of roughly $39,000 and Howard County where the median household income is $104,000. Yes, wealthier counties would now see an increased income tax burdone, but the increase would hardly offset the increased pension costs shouldered by poorer counties - instead, residents of poor counties will see increases in their local taxes.
Not in the budget, but expected to follow soon, is a proposal from O'Malley to increase the gas tax by $0.15 a gallon - bringing the state tax to nearly $0.40 per gallon. O'Malley argues this is a reasonable increase given the infrastructure needs of the state and the fact that the gas tax has not been increased in years. It's true the state is in need of infrastructure improvements - making one question the governor's decisions to repeatedly raid the transportation trust fund for other purposes in the past - but an increase in the gas tax during a weak economic recovery is just a bad idea. Adding that gas tax increase on top of recent and dramatic increases in Maryland tolls makes it an unforgivable idea.
Excise taxes (like those placed on fuel) and tolls are especially regressive as they consume far more of the income of lower income earners. O'Malley is essentially raising the cost of working for Maryland families. He is also raising the cost of providing for those families. The higher fuel and toll costs will deplete the disposable income of working families - that means less money to save for college, for retirement, and less money to spend on goods and services that help maintain economic growth. Higher fuel and toll costs will also increase the prices of goods and services meaning that Maryland's working families will have less to spend on more expensive goods and services - a double whammy that makes no sense in the midst of a weak economy.
As if the increased fuel and toll costs were not enough, the Governor would also double the current $30 flush tax on most families. O'Malley proposes that the flush tax now be based on water usage, rather than a flat tax - but this only works for folks with public water (like Howard County). For folks living in rural Maryland (like Allegany County) who draw water from a well the tax would simply be doubled. The net effect likely to be a disproportionate cost shift to lower income Marylanders. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bottom 20% of wage earners pay three times more of their income on federal excise taxes on gasoline and motor fuel alone as compared to the top 20%. When all federal excise taxes are considered, the proportional burden placed on the bottom 20% rises to nearly six times that of the top 20%. Six times the burden for federal excise taxes alone - and O'Malley would add to the inequality through increases in state excise taxes. So much for progressive leadership.
In introducing the budget O'Malley declared "Job creation is our No. 1 priority..." Such a statement can hardly be reconciled with a budget that seeks balance by placing significant new costs on working class Marylanders by increasing the cost of driving to work, the costs of goods and services purchased, and even the cost of the water they drink.
In a state that tops the country in millionaires, O'Malley is relying on regressive taxation and a tremendous cost shift to counties to balance the budget. The approach is anything but balanced or fair and should be rejected by the General Assembly.
Last week Governor O'Malley unveiled his FY 2013 budget. As with all prior years, O'Malley had to deal with a structural deficit - this time amounting to roughly $1 billion of the budget's $14 billion total. With the exception of a 2007 special session O'Malley has opted to bring the budget into balance every year through spending cuts and one-time transfers from special funds. Even in the 2007 special session of the Maryland General Assembly the $800 million in new revenue generated by taxes on businesses and individuals were were coupled with $500 million in spending reductions. All told, O'Malley has cut spending by $7.5 billion during his tenure - a commendable accomplishment during very lean times.
For FY 2013, O'Malley continues to make cuts - roughly $600-800 million depending on the math - but decided as well that the time was right for more tax increases, what O'Malley describes as a balanced approach. I do not disagree with the need to consider additional sources of revenue, unfortunately O'Malley's concept of "balance" is anything but balanced. O'Malley proposes capping deductions for singles making more than $100,000 and couples making more than $150,000. Estimates are this would impact the top 20% of wage earners in the state - so this tax increase is not targeted at the top 1%, 5% or 10% - it hits deeply into the middle class in a very high cost of living state.
The capping of tax deductions is not the worst offender, however. Though the income tax provisions would work to make Maryland's income tax structure more progressive (a good thing) it is offset by several proposals that would be especially harmful.
O'Malley has proposed an end to a decades old practice of the state covering the cost of teachers' pensions by beginning a steady shift of that responsibility to the counties. Under the proposed budget $239 million in teachers' retirement costs would be shifted to cash-strapped counties. The governor's budget offsets some of the cost transfer by having the state assume responsibility for some of the teachers' Social Security payroll tax (formerly handled by the counties) and via revenue sharing from the new tax policies. But even with these measures the cost shift to counties is tremendous. Maryland is home to significant income inequality across and between counties and this cost shift will be especially burdensome on poor counties - counties where quality teachers are already hard enough to attract. Consider the stark contrast between Allegany County with a median household income of roughly $39,000 and Howard County where the median household income is $104,000. Yes, wealthier counties would now see an increased income tax burdone, but the increase would hardly offset the increased pension costs shouldered by poorer counties - instead, residents of poor counties will see increases in their local taxes.
Not in the budget, but expected to follow soon, is a proposal from O'Malley to increase the gas tax by $0.15 a gallon - bringing the state tax to nearly $0.40 per gallon. O'Malley argues this is a reasonable increase given the infrastructure needs of the state and the fact that the gas tax has not been increased in years. It's true the state is in need of infrastructure improvements - making one question the governor's decisions to repeatedly raid the transportation trust fund for other purposes in the past - but an increase in the gas tax during a weak economic recovery is just a bad idea. Adding that gas tax increase on top of recent and dramatic increases in Maryland tolls makes it an unforgivable idea.
Excise taxes (like those placed on fuel) and tolls are especially regressive as they consume far more of the income of lower income earners. O'Malley is essentially raising the cost of working for Maryland families. He is also raising the cost of providing for those families. The higher fuel and toll costs will deplete the disposable income of working families - that means less money to save for college, for retirement, and less money to spend on goods and services that help maintain economic growth. Higher fuel and toll costs will also increase the prices of goods and services meaning that Maryland's working families will have less to spend on more expensive goods and services - a double whammy that makes no sense in the midst of a weak economy.
As if the increased fuel and toll costs were not enough, the Governor would also double the current $30 flush tax on most families. O'Malley proposes that the flush tax now be based on water usage, rather than a flat tax - but this only works for folks with public water (like Howard County). For folks living in rural Maryland (like Allegany County) who draw water from a well the tax would simply be doubled. The net effect likely to be a disproportionate cost shift to lower income Marylanders. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bottom 20% of wage earners pay three times more of their income on federal excise taxes on gasoline and motor fuel alone as compared to the top 20%. When all federal excise taxes are considered, the proportional burden placed on the bottom 20% rises to nearly six times that of the top 20%. Six times the burden for federal excise taxes alone - and O'Malley would add to the inequality through increases in state excise taxes. So much for progressive leadership.
In introducing the budget O'Malley declared "Job creation is our No. 1 priority..." Such a statement can hardly be reconciled with a budget that seeks balance by placing significant new costs on working class Marylanders by increasing the cost of driving to work, the costs of goods and services purchased, and even the cost of the water they drink.
In a state that tops the country in millionaires, O'Malley is relying on regressive taxation and a tremendous cost shift to counties to balance the budget. The approach is anything but balanced or fair and should be rejected by the General Assembly.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
O'Malley's Lament
I do not envy Martin O'Malley. As chair of the Democratic Governor's Association and presidential aspirant O'Malley is under tremendous pressure to deliver at least one new Democratic House seat to bolster his party's chances of reclaiming the House of Representatives in 2012. The map proposed by his Redistricting Commission bowed to that national pressure.
But the only way to create 7 Democratic districts in Maryland (a state where Republicans routinely win 40% of the statewide vote and dominate every region of the state except central Maryland) is to take the substantial African-American vote in Baltimore City, Montgomery County and Prince Georges County and use those voters to dilute the Republican areas of the state. There is clear evidence of this in the recently proposed map.
Baltimore City voters are used to offset Republican votes in Baltimore County, Howard County, Harford County and Anne Arundel County. Montgomery County voters offset western Maryland (and Anne Arundel, and Baltimore County) and Prince Georges voters dilute Southern Maryland (and Anne Arundel).
This is an effective way to gerrymander a state, but the result is reduced minority voting power. Maryland's population is over 40% minority, but only two of the state's eight Congressional districts are majority-minority (the 4th and 7th). Even though the minority population has grown in the past decade, the new map would not create any additional majority-minority districts. Worse, it would weaken minority voting strength in five districts. Minority vote strength in the two majority-minority districts (the 4th and 7th) would decline slightly and in the 8th district minority vote strength would fall dramatically from roughly 37% to around 25% - all a result of the gerrymandering needed to turn Roscoe Bartlett's red 6th district marginally blue. The 6th district goes from being 10% minority to 22% minority.
Maryland's 1st district would be 15% minority, the 2nd 37% minority, the 3rd 29% minority, and the 5th 44% minority.
But African-American community leaders in Montgomery and Prince Georges counties are not happy with the manner in which the minority population has been divided and used to create Democratic districts. It's a sad reality of American politics that minority candidates, especially African-American candidates, are rarely elected from non majority-minority districts. So all of those districts with 29%, 37% or 44% minority membership simply rely on minority voters to elect white Democrats.
Given Maryland's population and the geographic concentration of minority voters, the state should be home to at least 3, if not 4, majority-minority districts. In light of that, it's easy to understand why minority community leaders are upset with consolation prize of two districts.
The Voting Rights Act of 1965 prevents redistricting that disadvantages minority voters and weakens their political power - based on that, some community leaders have threatened to file a lawsuit to stop the proposed map. The problem for O'Malley is the simple fact that you cannot create 3 or 4 majority-minority districts in Maryland without creating 2 or 3 Republican districts as a byproduct. You can either have more Democrats, but fewer minority representatives or more minority representatives, but fewer Democrats.
This brings us to the other pressure on O'Malley. O'Malley wants to be President - there can be little doubt about that. But to build a foundation for a presidential run, he needs a record of accomplishment as governor - this has eluded him thus far. O'Malley has been a competent and responsible manager of the state, but he needs a record of legislative accomplishment. O'Malley has chosen to take more risks in the coming legislative session by endorsing high profile issues like marriage equality. Marriage equality died in the prior legislative session when an odd alliance of African-American delegates, conservative Democrats, and Republicans joined to kill the measure.
As a voting bloc, African-American senators and delegates wield tremendous power in the General Assembly, and their opposition to O'Malley's agenda (coupled with Assembly Republicans and conservatives) could make the difference between a failed or successful second term. O'Malley knows this. As such, he cannot afford to ignore the rising tide of opposition to the map proposed by his advisory commission.
O'Malley faces a difficult choice - does he represent the interests of the national Democratic party and deliver them an additional seat in Congress (and risk alienating a key party voting bloc in Maryland) or does he represent the interests of the people of Maryland a present a map that respects the growing minority presence in the state (and risk alienating national party leaders whose support he will need if he runs for president).
In his speech before the 2004 Democratic convention O'Malley said "to govern is to choose." Today, he faces a very difficult choice and his decision will likely tell us much about his ambition and whether his focus remains on Maryland or his future plans. And he must decide soon.
But the only way to create 7 Democratic districts in Maryland (a state where Republicans routinely win 40% of the statewide vote and dominate every region of the state except central Maryland) is to take the substantial African-American vote in Baltimore City, Montgomery County and Prince Georges County and use those voters to dilute the Republican areas of the state. There is clear evidence of this in the recently proposed map.
Baltimore City voters are used to offset Republican votes in Baltimore County, Howard County, Harford County and Anne Arundel County. Montgomery County voters offset western Maryland (and Anne Arundel, and Baltimore County) and Prince Georges voters dilute Southern Maryland (and Anne Arundel).
This is an effective way to gerrymander a state, but the result is reduced minority voting power. Maryland's population is over 40% minority, but only two of the state's eight Congressional districts are majority-minority (the 4th and 7th). Even though the minority population has grown in the past decade, the new map would not create any additional majority-minority districts. Worse, it would weaken minority voting strength in five districts. Minority vote strength in the two majority-minority districts (the 4th and 7th) would decline slightly and in the 8th district minority vote strength would fall dramatically from roughly 37% to around 25% - all a result of the gerrymandering needed to turn Roscoe Bartlett's red 6th district marginally blue. The 6th district goes from being 10% minority to 22% minority.
Maryland's 1st district would be 15% minority, the 2nd 37% minority, the 3rd 29% minority, and the 5th 44% minority.
But African-American community leaders in Montgomery and Prince Georges counties are not happy with the manner in which the minority population has been divided and used to create Democratic districts. It's a sad reality of American politics that minority candidates, especially African-American candidates, are rarely elected from non majority-minority districts. So all of those districts with 29%, 37% or 44% minority membership simply rely on minority voters to elect white Democrats.
Given Maryland's population and the geographic concentration of minority voters, the state should be home to at least 3, if not 4, majority-minority districts. In light of that, it's easy to understand why minority community leaders are upset with consolation prize of two districts.
The Voting Rights Act of 1965 prevents redistricting that disadvantages minority voters and weakens their political power - based on that, some community leaders have threatened to file a lawsuit to stop the proposed map. The problem for O'Malley is the simple fact that you cannot create 3 or 4 majority-minority districts in Maryland without creating 2 or 3 Republican districts as a byproduct. You can either have more Democrats, but fewer minority representatives or more minority representatives, but fewer Democrats.
This brings us to the other pressure on O'Malley. O'Malley wants to be President - there can be little doubt about that. But to build a foundation for a presidential run, he needs a record of accomplishment as governor - this has eluded him thus far. O'Malley has been a competent and responsible manager of the state, but he needs a record of legislative accomplishment. O'Malley has chosen to take more risks in the coming legislative session by endorsing high profile issues like marriage equality. Marriage equality died in the prior legislative session when an odd alliance of African-American delegates, conservative Democrats, and Republicans joined to kill the measure.
As a voting bloc, African-American senators and delegates wield tremendous power in the General Assembly, and their opposition to O'Malley's agenda (coupled with Assembly Republicans and conservatives) could make the difference between a failed or successful second term. O'Malley knows this. As such, he cannot afford to ignore the rising tide of opposition to the map proposed by his advisory commission.
O'Malley faces a difficult choice - does he represent the interests of the national Democratic party and deliver them an additional seat in Congress (and risk alienating a key party voting bloc in Maryland) or does he represent the interests of the people of Maryland a present a map that respects the growing minority presence in the state (and risk alienating national party leaders whose support he will need if he runs for president).
In his speech before the 2004 Democratic convention O'Malley said "to govern is to choose." Today, he faces a very difficult choice and his decision will likely tell us much about his ambition and whether his focus remains on Maryland or his future plans. And he must decide soon.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Maryland Redistricting Plan is an Affront to Representative Democracy
Looking for my map? Check it out here.
Update: Want to learn more about gerrymandering and ask me questions? Come to St. Mary's College on October 12 for a screening of the documentary "Gerrymandering."
At the height of the national debate over raising the debt ceiling, Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley wrote a column for the Huffington Post in which he excoriated the Tea Party and Republicans in Congress.
I happen to think that much of O'Malley's criticism of the GOP and the Tea Party, though a bit hyperbolic, was often correct.
Unfortunately for O'Malley, recent events suggest that he is every bit as partisan and unconcerned with the health of our democracy as are the Republicans he so often criticizes.
As reported by the Washington Post, O'Malley's Redistricting Commission appears to have settled on two possible options for redrawing Maryland's congressional districts (see below). Each map represents no less than an assault on the very concept of democratic representation. Each map represents an act of puerile political cowardice drawn for the express purpose of suppressing the will of the people in the state of Maryland.
With these maps Governor O'Malley appears ready to embrace divisiveness and political gamesmanship with one goal and one goal only and that is to help Democrats reclaim the House of Representatives in 2012 - even if it means effectively disenfranchising four in ten Marylanders and risking our country's future by exacerbating the problem of polarized politics.
Simply stated, the O'Malley plans (as reported by the Washington Post) seek to alter Maryland's current Congressional delegation of six Democrats and two Republicans and create a delegation that is seven Democrats to one Republican, or, under a particularly egregious plan, eight Democrats.
As I demonstrated in a prior post, talk of Maryland being a two-to-one Democrat over Republican state often ignores the fact that Democrats represent only 56% of the state's registered voters - a clear majority, but hardly indicative of a one party state. More important than voter registration statistics, my analyses of statewide and district-specific elections showed that the Free State's growing bloc of unaffiliated voters vote overwhelmingly for Republicans. In truth, Maryland is not a two-to-one Democratic state - it is a 60/40 Democratic state - so more like 1.5-to-1. It makes sense that Democrats routinely win all statewide races, but they have regional weaknesses on the eastern shore, southern and western Maryland and in northern Baltimore and Harford counties.
If one were to apply the 1.5-to-1 ratio to the state's eight-seat congressional delegation the split would be five Democrats and three Republicans. The current six-to-two split is not too far off, but is the result of a particularly messy redistricting process completed in 2002. At the time of the state's last redistricting, Maryland had a four-to-four congressional delegation (also not far off the 1.5-to-1 ratio) and then Governor Parris Glendening and state Democrats dedicated themselves to correcting that "flaw." The result was the current map, which elevated Maryland to the proud status as one of the worst gerrymandered states in the nation. Casper Taylor (D-Allegany), then Speaker of the Maryland House, said the plan was the best way to elect more Democrats, arguing "We Democrats deserve six [Democrats] and two" Republicans.
Governor O'Malley had a chance to correct the abuse of process committed in the name of petty partisanship in 2002, but instead it seems he has doubled-down and bowed before the pressure of the national Democratic party and appears ready to gerrymander Maryland so drastically that the state will likely stand side-by-side with the Rorschach test that is the gerrymandered mess created by the GOP in Texas.
Under either of the maps attributed to the Redistricting Commission, Maryland's 2nd and 3rd congressional districts would continue to defy all logic and Baltimore City would continue to be treated like a ATM simply dispensing Democratic voters used to dilute more conservative voters in surrounding suburban counties. Under Option 1, the 4th, 6th, and 7th districts would throw down the gauntlet and openly compete for the title of most egregious affront to democracy. Counties would be sliced and diced, communities divided, and parts of the state with little or nothing in common would be combined all in the name of either maximizing Democratic votes or minimizing Republican votes.
Under Option 2, the 2nd and 3rd districts are altered, but continue to resemble an accidental ink spill and the 4th district is transformed into an odd merging of Prince Georges and Anne Arundel. But the 1st and 5th districts take the cake. The 5th district would stretch from Prince Georges county, down through southern Maryland, jump across the Chesapeake Bay and include the lower eastern shore. The 1st district would include the rest of the eastern shore, then drive across the Bay Bridge, cut through Anne Arundel county and end in, you guessed it, Prince Georges county.
Undermining Maryland's Diversity
The net effect of either Option 1 or Option 2 would be a Congressional delegation that fundamentally fails to represent the true political diversity of Maryland. Republicans and Independent voters are not the only folks who lose out under the proposed maps. According to the 2010 census, Maryland has a fast growing minority population - in fact, the state is just over 40% minority. However, minority voters are not as geographically diverse as the state's white population. Nearly 60 percent of the state's African-American population reside in Prince Georges county and Baltimore City. Montgomery county is home to over 40% of the Asian population and over 60% of the growing Hispanic population reside in Montgomery and Prince Georges counties.
Baltimore City has seen its population shrink to the point where it could occupy a single congressional district, inclusive of its Baltimore county suburbs - instead, both maps would continue to spread the City's 400,000 African-American voters across the 2nd, 3rd, and 7th congressional districts. African-Americans are the most loyal Democratic voting bloc and these maps rely on that loyalty to dilute more conservative voters in Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Harford counties. The same is true for minority voters in Montgomery and Prince Georges counties - in order to flip the Republican-held 6th congressional district the proposals would divide Montgomery county among 3 (option 1) or 4 (option 2) congressional districts to dilute more conservative voters in western Maryland and to protect the Democratic 3rd and 8th districts. Prince Georges county also would be divided among 3 (option 1) or 4 (option 2) congressional districts to dilute more conservative voters in southern Maryland (the 5th district), Anne Arundel county (the 4th) and the eastern shore (the first).
Montgomery, Prince Georges, and Charles counties, all part of the DC suburbs and home to 50% of the state's African-American population could occupy 3 congressional districts (as opposed to the 6 they collectively occupy in the two proposals) - such a map, coupled with a cohesive Baltimore City/suburbs district would likely result in a congressional delegation consisting of at least 3 members of the minority community. Instead, the Redistricting Commission appears ready to do what has been done in the past - dilute the power of the minority vote by dividing it and using it to offset more conservative white voters elsewhere. There is no way to gerrymander Maryland and prevent Republicans from winning at least 3 congressional seats without dividing minority communities - so the interest of the party trumps the interests of the state's diverse population. In Republican-held states, the GOP often seeks to pack minority voters into a single district drawn to prevent them from diluting conservative votes elsewhere. Whether the Democratic or Republican approach the result is the same - fewer minority members of Congress.
Why the Gerrymandering?
According to the Washington Post, O'Malley was motivated by the simple fact that, following the 2010 midterms, the GOP controls the redistricting process in enough states to effect 202 House seats, compared to 47 for Democrats. And make no mistake, Republicans have been busy. In states like Texas, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania Republicans have been hard at work protecting their House majority.
But the fact the Republicans are doing it other states is simply not an acceptable excuse for O'Malley to do it here. Maryland's voters deserve better. All voters deserve better. A small handful of states have sought to remove politics from the redistricting process. In these states, the needs of voters have been placed ahead of the needs of any political party - this is what Marylander's deserve and what O'Malley had a chance to deliver. Instead, O'Malley appears to have decided that he cares more about the demands of the national Democratic party than he does about representing the diverse views Marylanders.
How Bad is the Gerrymandering?
Republicans and Democrats have been so effective at gerrymandering the country that roughly 380 of the House's 435 seats are considered to be safe - that means there are about 55 competitive seats. Control of the House goes to whichever party controls at least 218 seats. At present, partisan gerrymandering has created a situation where Democrats have a floor of about 195 seats (they're just below that number right now) and Republicans have a floor of about 185 seats. This means that either party, when in the minority, is within striking distance of reclaiming the majority. It also means that either party, when in the majority, has a very tenuous hold on power. The result being that the minority party has every motivation to obstruct the majority and the majority party has every motivation to shut-out the minority in an effort to enact its agenda as quickly as possible.
Gerrymandering contributes to our polarized and dysfunctional politics in other ways as well. In the roughly 380 safe seats the majority party has been so protected from competition that there is no reason to ever listen to the demands or wishes of minority party voters in the district. In such a situation, there is no motivation for elected officials to seek compromise, no motivation to take into consideration the interests of minority party voters.
How bad is it? I'll leave that to conservative Democratic Representative Mike Ross (D-AR) “If you look at the Congress, the entire agenda is being driven by the extremes of both parties..., And that’s being driven by gerrymandering throughout the years.”
Some dismiss the impact of gerrymandering on polarization, often noting that the Senate is polarized as well - and you cannot gerrymander a state. What these folks fail to realize is that roughly 2/3 of our Senators (in any given year) previously held seats in an elective office subject to redistricting (either in the U.S. House or in a state assembly) - in other words, the Senate is a product of what gerrymandering has wrought.
Political Cowardice
The House of Representatives was meant to be the most democratic of all federal institutions. It was meant to be the body where the diverse interests of the people mingled and produced compromise. It was to be the place where the baneful influence of factions would be countered and moderated. Gerrymandering subverts all of that and subjugates the interests of the people to the interests of political parties.
Perhaps it was naive to have expected more from Governor O'Malley, but it certainly was not wrong to have expected better. I will confess to being a pretty liberal person (I know, a liberal college professor - shocking). I support a truly progressive tax code, I want the death penalty to end, I want single-payer national health insurance, I support marriage equality, and think we need comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship and in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants. I know that all of these things will only happen if Democrats are the folks making the laws. But process matters, the ends can never be used to justify the means, and democracy demands that the diverse interests and beliefs of the people be represented. It is better to lose a fair fight, than to win a rigged game.
The proposed maps for Maryland, as well as the GOP proposed maps in states like Texas, are supreme acts of political cowardice. If Democrats and Republicans truly believed that their ideas, their vision for America, were more powerful there would be no need rig the system like this. Maps such as these, represent a clear acknowledgement by the parties that they do not believe they can win a fair fight in the battlefield of ideas.
Update: Want to learn more about gerrymandering and ask me questions? Come to St. Mary's College on October 12 for a screening of the documentary "Gerrymandering."
At the height of the national debate over raising the debt ceiling, Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley wrote a column for the Huffington Post in which he excoriated the Tea Party and Republicans in Congress.
"Over the past few weeks, we've seen divisiveness and political gamesmanship like we've never seen before. We've seen a new wing of the Republican party emerge with one goal and one goal only and that is to defeat President Obama in the upcoming election -- even if it means killing the jobs recovery and risking our country's financial stability."Indeed, since becoming chair of the Democratic Governors' Association O'Malley has frequently criticized the GOP for placing party before country and for being partisan hostage takers - willing to risk our nation's very future in an effort to defeat President Obama in 2012.
I happen to think that much of O'Malley's criticism of the GOP and the Tea Party, though a bit hyperbolic, was often correct.
Unfortunately for O'Malley, recent events suggest that he is every bit as partisan and unconcerned with the health of our democracy as are the Republicans he so often criticizes.
As reported by the Washington Post, O'Malley's Redistricting Commission appears to have settled on two possible options for redrawing Maryland's congressional districts (see below). Each map represents no less than an assault on the very concept of democratic representation. Each map represents an act of puerile political cowardice drawn for the express purpose of suppressing the will of the people in the state of Maryland.
With these maps Governor O'Malley appears ready to embrace divisiveness and political gamesmanship with one goal and one goal only and that is to help Democrats reclaim the House of Representatives in 2012 - even if it means effectively disenfranchising four in ten Marylanders and risking our country's future by exacerbating the problem of polarized politics.
Simply stated, the O'Malley plans (as reported by the Washington Post) seek to alter Maryland's current Congressional delegation of six Democrats and two Republicans and create a delegation that is seven Democrats to one Republican, or, under a particularly egregious plan, eight Democrats.
As I demonstrated in a prior post, talk of Maryland being a two-to-one Democrat over Republican state often ignores the fact that Democrats represent only 56% of the state's registered voters - a clear majority, but hardly indicative of a one party state. More important than voter registration statistics, my analyses of statewide and district-specific elections showed that the Free State's growing bloc of unaffiliated voters vote overwhelmingly for Republicans. In truth, Maryland is not a two-to-one Democratic state - it is a 60/40 Democratic state - so more like 1.5-to-1. It makes sense that Democrats routinely win all statewide races, but they have regional weaknesses on the eastern shore, southern and western Maryland and in northern Baltimore and Harford counties.
If one were to apply the 1.5-to-1 ratio to the state's eight-seat congressional delegation the split would be five Democrats and three Republicans. The current six-to-two split is not too far off, but is the result of a particularly messy redistricting process completed in 2002. At the time of the state's last redistricting, Maryland had a four-to-four congressional delegation (also not far off the 1.5-to-1 ratio) and then Governor Parris Glendening and state Democrats dedicated themselves to correcting that "flaw." The result was the current map, which elevated Maryland to the proud status as one of the worst gerrymandered states in the nation. Casper Taylor (D-Allegany), then Speaker of the Maryland House, said the plan was the best way to elect more Democrats, arguing "We Democrats deserve six [Democrats] and two" Republicans.
Governor O'Malley had a chance to correct the abuse of process committed in the name of petty partisanship in 2002, but instead it seems he has doubled-down and bowed before the pressure of the national Democratic party and appears ready to gerrymander Maryland so drastically that the state will likely stand side-by-side with the Rorschach test that is the gerrymandered mess created by the GOP in Texas.
Under either of the maps attributed to the Redistricting Commission, Maryland's 2nd and 3rd congressional districts would continue to defy all logic and Baltimore City would continue to be treated like a ATM simply dispensing Democratic voters used to dilute more conservative voters in surrounding suburban counties. Under Option 1, the 4th, 6th, and 7th districts would throw down the gauntlet and openly compete for the title of most egregious affront to democracy. Counties would be sliced and diced, communities divided, and parts of the state with little or nothing in common would be combined all in the name of either maximizing Democratic votes or minimizing Republican votes.
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| Maryland Redistricting Commission - Proposed Option 1 |
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Maryland Redistricting Commission - Proposed Option 2 |
The net effect of either Option 1 or Option 2 would be a Congressional delegation that fundamentally fails to represent the true political diversity of Maryland. Republicans and Independent voters are not the only folks who lose out under the proposed maps. According to the 2010 census, Maryland has a fast growing minority population - in fact, the state is just over 40% minority. However, minority voters are not as geographically diverse as the state's white population. Nearly 60 percent of the state's African-American population reside in Prince Georges county and Baltimore City. Montgomery county is home to over 40% of the Asian population and over 60% of the growing Hispanic population reside in Montgomery and Prince Georges counties.
Baltimore City has seen its population shrink to the point where it could occupy a single congressional district, inclusive of its Baltimore county suburbs - instead, both maps would continue to spread the City's 400,000 African-American voters across the 2nd, 3rd, and 7th congressional districts. African-Americans are the most loyal Democratic voting bloc and these maps rely on that loyalty to dilute more conservative voters in Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Harford counties. The same is true for minority voters in Montgomery and Prince Georges counties - in order to flip the Republican-held 6th congressional district the proposals would divide Montgomery county among 3 (option 1) or 4 (option 2) congressional districts to dilute more conservative voters in western Maryland and to protect the Democratic 3rd and 8th districts. Prince Georges county also would be divided among 3 (option 1) or 4 (option 2) congressional districts to dilute more conservative voters in southern Maryland (the 5th district), Anne Arundel county (the 4th) and the eastern shore (the first).
Montgomery, Prince Georges, and Charles counties, all part of the DC suburbs and home to 50% of the state's African-American population could occupy 3 congressional districts (as opposed to the 6 they collectively occupy in the two proposals) - such a map, coupled with a cohesive Baltimore City/suburbs district would likely result in a congressional delegation consisting of at least 3 members of the minority community. Instead, the Redistricting Commission appears ready to do what has been done in the past - dilute the power of the minority vote by dividing it and using it to offset more conservative white voters elsewhere. There is no way to gerrymander Maryland and prevent Republicans from winning at least 3 congressional seats without dividing minority communities - so the interest of the party trumps the interests of the state's diverse population. In Republican-held states, the GOP often seeks to pack minority voters into a single district drawn to prevent them from diluting conservative votes elsewhere. Whether the Democratic or Republican approach the result is the same - fewer minority members of Congress.
Why the Gerrymandering?
According to the Washington Post, O'Malley was motivated by the simple fact that, following the 2010 midterms, the GOP controls the redistricting process in enough states to effect 202 House seats, compared to 47 for Democrats. And make no mistake, Republicans have been busy. In states like Texas, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania Republicans have been hard at work protecting their House majority.
But the fact the Republicans are doing it other states is simply not an acceptable excuse for O'Malley to do it here. Maryland's voters deserve better. All voters deserve better. A small handful of states have sought to remove politics from the redistricting process. In these states, the needs of voters have been placed ahead of the needs of any political party - this is what Marylander's deserve and what O'Malley had a chance to deliver. Instead, O'Malley appears to have decided that he cares more about the demands of the national Democratic party than he does about representing the diverse views Marylanders.
How Bad is the Gerrymandering?
Republicans and Democrats have been so effective at gerrymandering the country that roughly 380 of the House's 435 seats are considered to be safe - that means there are about 55 competitive seats. Control of the House goes to whichever party controls at least 218 seats. At present, partisan gerrymandering has created a situation where Democrats have a floor of about 195 seats (they're just below that number right now) and Republicans have a floor of about 185 seats. This means that either party, when in the minority, is within striking distance of reclaiming the majority. It also means that either party, when in the majority, has a very tenuous hold on power. The result being that the minority party has every motivation to obstruct the majority and the majority party has every motivation to shut-out the minority in an effort to enact its agenda as quickly as possible.
Gerrymandering contributes to our polarized and dysfunctional politics in other ways as well. In the roughly 380 safe seats the majority party has been so protected from competition that there is no reason to ever listen to the demands or wishes of minority party voters in the district. In such a situation, there is no motivation for elected officials to seek compromise, no motivation to take into consideration the interests of minority party voters.
How bad is it? I'll leave that to conservative Democratic Representative Mike Ross (D-AR) “If you look at the Congress, the entire agenda is being driven by the extremes of both parties..., And that’s being driven by gerrymandering throughout the years.”
Some dismiss the impact of gerrymandering on polarization, often noting that the Senate is polarized as well - and you cannot gerrymander a state. What these folks fail to realize is that roughly 2/3 of our Senators (in any given year) previously held seats in an elective office subject to redistricting (either in the U.S. House or in a state assembly) - in other words, the Senate is a product of what gerrymandering has wrought.
Political Cowardice
The House of Representatives was meant to be the most democratic of all federal institutions. It was meant to be the body where the diverse interests of the people mingled and produced compromise. It was to be the place where the baneful influence of factions would be countered and moderated. Gerrymandering subverts all of that and subjugates the interests of the people to the interests of political parties.
Perhaps it was naive to have expected more from Governor O'Malley, but it certainly was not wrong to have expected better. I will confess to being a pretty liberal person (I know, a liberal college professor - shocking). I support a truly progressive tax code, I want the death penalty to end, I want single-payer national health insurance, I support marriage equality, and think we need comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship and in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants. I know that all of these things will only happen if Democrats are the folks making the laws. But process matters, the ends can never be used to justify the means, and democracy demands that the diverse interests and beliefs of the people be represented. It is better to lose a fair fight, than to win a rigged game.
The proposed maps for Maryland, as well as the GOP proposed maps in states like Texas, are supreme acts of political cowardice. If Democrats and Republicans truly believed that their ideas, their vision for America, were more powerful there would be no need rig the system like this. Maps such as these, represent a clear acknowledgement by the parties that they do not believe they can win a fair fight in the battlefield of ideas.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Thank You Governor O'Malley
As expected, Governor O'Malley has announced his intentions to sponsor same-sex marriage legislation in Maryland.
I have been very critical of O'Malley and his lack of leadership on this issue during the 2011 legislative session. I also believe that the only reason he decided to support the bill was the active role played by Gov. Cuomo in New York when the state legislature legalized same sex marriage earlier this summer. I'll add that given the incredible success of the petition drive to place the Maryland DREAM Act on the ballot in 2012 the General Assembly may be hesitant to pass another bill that would most certainly trigger another petition drive and another ballot initiative - meaning that 2011 was really the year to get behind the bill.
But.... the bill has a far greater chance of passing with O'Malley's full and vocal support and given the controversy that this is likely to cause among Catholic and African-American religious leaders this represents a brave and bold decision by a governor who rarely takes political risks.
On behalf of all of us who are straight, but not narrow (minded) I say thank you Governor O'Malley for standing up for the simple, but essential concept of equality under the law. I stand with you and will certainly do whatever I can to support your legislation.
From O'Malley's Press Release:
"As a free and diverse people of many faiths, we choose to be governed under the law by certain fundamental principles or beliefs, among them “equal protection of the law” for every individual and the “free exercise” of religion without government intervention. In the 2012 legislative session, I will sponsor legislation that protects religious freedom and equality of marital rights under the law."
I have been very critical of O'Malley and his lack of leadership on this issue during the 2011 legislative session. I also believe that the only reason he decided to support the bill was the active role played by Gov. Cuomo in New York when the state legislature legalized same sex marriage earlier this summer. I'll add that given the incredible success of the petition drive to place the Maryland DREAM Act on the ballot in 2012 the General Assembly may be hesitant to pass another bill that would most certainly trigger another petition drive and another ballot initiative - meaning that 2011 was really the year to get behind the bill.
But.... the bill has a far greater chance of passing with O'Malley's full and vocal support and given the controversy that this is likely to cause among Catholic and African-American religious leaders this represents a brave and bold decision by a governor who rarely takes political risks.
On behalf of all of us who are straight, but not narrow (minded) I say thank you Governor O'Malley for standing up for the simple, but essential concept of equality under the law. I stand with you and will certainly do whatever I can to support your legislation.
From O'Malley's Press Release:
"As a free and diverse people of many faiths, we choose to be governed under the law by certain fundamental principles or beliefs, among them “equal protection of the law” for every individual and the “free exercise” of religion without government intervention. In the 2012 legislative session, I will sponsor legislation that protects religious freedom and equality of marital rights under the law."
Saturday, July 16, 2011
A model redistricting plan from the Maryland GOP
The following post is from a column that I wrote for the Washington Post - the full text (with nice maps) can be veiwed at the Washington Post's Opinions Page.
Maryland is home to some of the most gerrymandered congressional districts in the country. But the decennial redistricting getting underway gives Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley and state leaders a chance to remake the partisan, unrepresentative districts created 10 years ago under Gov. Parris Glendening, another Democrat — districts that have harmed Democratic and unaffiliated voters as much as they have Republicans.
And the good news is officials don’t have to spend much time reviewing voter rolls and computer data to achieve this good-government outcome. All they have to do is adopt the plan offered by Maryland Republicans. Yes, you read that correctly.
That’s not the process that’s in the offing, of course. Instead, a task force created by O’Malley will redraw districts so that each contains roughly 721,000 people, a map which will then be sent to the General Assembly for its rubber stamp. O’Malley has promised to produce a map representative of Maryland’s diversity. Given the Democratic makeup of the task force, however, I suspect this will be a decidedly partisan affair (as it is in most states) dedicated to the electoral interests of O’Malley’s party.
It is important to consider how Maryland’s bizarre congressional districts came into existence. Before the 2001 redistricting, the state’s congressional delegation included four Democrats and four Republicans. That split was unacceptable to Glendening and state Democratic leaders, given their party’s sizable registration advantage, so they drew lines to dilute Republican counties and expand the reach of Democratic strongholds.
The goal was clear — elect more Democrats — and it was met. But there was a cost. Rather than respecting political diversity and natural community boundaries, districts were designed solely to maximize Democratic influence.
Counties were sliced and diced. The boundaries of the 1st and 2nd districts were altered to pack more Republicans into the 1st and more Democrats in the 2nd. The 8th District, mostly Montgomery County, was spread over three districts, with the more Republican areas shifted into the 6th District along with Western Maryland and much of northern Baltimore and Harford counties. To offset Republican voters elsewhere in Baltimore, Harford and Howard counties, the city of Baltimore’s residents were treated as spoils to be divided among the 2nd, 3rd and 7th districts. As a result, the unique urban interests of Democratic Baltimore City residents were diluted by the suburban demands of Baltimore, Harford and Howard.
Closer in to Washington, Prince George’s County was divided among the 4th, 5th and 8th districts. Montgomery was spread across the 4th, 6th and 8th. Again, this was done to maximize the impact of these Democratic bastions.
Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford counties were divided in ways that defy all reason — except one: diluting the GOP vote. Harford was cut into thirds and given to the 1st, 2nd and 6th districts. Baltimore County was spread across the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th. Anne Arundel was divided among the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th. The 2nd and 3rd districts look like someone spilled ink on a map of Maryland.
Rather than correct the mess, however, most observers expect the O’Malley task force to try to make the congressional delegation even more Democratic. The 6th District, currently a Republican stronghold, is the most likely target, with many of the District’s Republican voters being shifted to the 1st District which would then stretch from Somerset County to Carroll County. The process is being driven by the National Democratic Party and its desire to gain the two-dozen seats needed to reclaim control of the House of Representative; representing the interests of Maryland’s voters is of little concern.
Meanwhile, state Republicans have proposed a map with compact districts that treat the borders of counties and communities with respect. Only Baltimore County would occupy more than two districts. A badly needed Baltimore City district (a new District 7) would be created by adding a sliver of Baltimore County’s population to the city’s 631,000 residents. Harford would occupy one district. Anne Arundel would be in two districts not four. Montgomery and Prince George’s would each be included in two districts — the minimum possible given their large populations.
But the Republican map will be ignored. Fatally, it would probably produce a five-to-three party split, with the newly drawn 1st, 3rd and 6th Districts likely to elect Republicans. The 2nd District would become a new swing district, and the 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th would almost certainly stay in Democratic hands.
Yet those results would better represent the political and geographic diversity of the state. Democrats make up 56 percent of Maryland voters and Republicans 27 percent. But the Democrats’ advantage is tightly confined to the city of Baltimore and the D.C. suburbs, with the remainder of the state more competitive or leaning Republican, and unaffiliated voters (about 15 percent) are the fastest rising voting bloc in the state. Because of that, a congressional map yielding a delegation of four Democrats and three Republicans, with one swing district, would be a fair representation of the true political geography of the state. It would without question be much more accurate than a map creating a seven-to-one Democratic advantage.
The Republicans’ proposal isn’t perfect, but it is the standard by which the coming O’Malley map should be judged.
Maryland is home to some of the most gerrymandered congressional districts in the country. But the decennial redistricting getting underway gives Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley and state leaders a chance to remake the partisan, unrepresentative districts created 10 years ago under Gov. Parris Glendening, another Democrat — districts that have harmed Democratic and unaffiliated voters as much as they have Republicans.
And the good news is officials don’t have to spend much time reviewing voter rolls and computer data to achieve this good-government outcome. All they have to do is adopt the plan offered by Maryland Republicans. Yes, you read that correctly.
That’s not the process that’s in the offing, of course. Instead, a task force created by O’Malley will redraw districts so that each contains roughly 721,000 people, a map which will then be sent to the General Assembly for its rubber stamp. O’Malley has promised to produce a map representative of Maryland’s diversity. Given the Democratic makeup of the task force, however, I suspect this will be a decidedly partisan affair (as it is in most states) dedicated to the electoral interests of O’Malley’s party.
It is important to consider how Maryland’s bizarre congressional districts came into existence. Before the 2001 redistricting, the state’s congressional delegation included four Democrats and four Republicans. That split was unacceptable to Glendening and state Democratic leaders, given their party’s sizable registration advantage, so they drew lines to dilute Republican counties and expand the reach of Democratic strongholds.
The goal was clear — elect more Democrats — and it was met. But there was a cost. Rather than respecting political diversity and natural community boundaries, districts were designed solely to maximize Democratic influence.
Counties were sliced and diced. The boundaries of the 1st and 2nd districts were altered to pack more Republicans into the 1st and more Democrats in the 2nd. The 8th District, mostly Montgomery County, was spread over three districts, with the more Republican areas shifted into the 6th District along with Western Maryland and much of northern Baltimore and Harford counties. To offset Republican voters elsewhere in Baltimore, Harford and Howard counties, the city of Baltimore’s residents were treated as spoils to be divided among the 2nd, 3rd and 7th districts. As a result, the unique urban interests of Democratic Baltimore City residents were diluted by the suburban demands of Baltimore, Harford and Howard.
Closer in to Washington, Prince George’s County was divided among the 4th, 5th and 8th districts. Montgomery was spread across the 4th, 6th and 8th. Again, this was done to maximize the impact of these Democratic bastions.
Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford counties were divided in ways that defy all reason — except one: diluting the GOP vote. Harford was cut into thirds and given to the 1st, 2nd and 6th districts. Baltimore County was spread across the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th. Anne Arundel was divided among the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th. The 2nd and 3rd districts look like someone spilled ink on a map of Maryland.
Rather than correct the mess, however, most observers expect the O’Malley task force to try to make the congressional delegation even more Democratic. The 6th District, currently a Republican stronghold, is the most likely target, with many of the District’s Republican voters being shifted to the 1st District which would then stretch from Somerset County to Carroll County. The process is being driven by the National Democratic Party and its desire to gain the two-dozen seats needed to reclaim control of the House of Representative; representing the interests of Maryland’s voters is of little concern.
Meanwhile, state Republicans have proposed a map with compact districts that treat the borders of counties and communities with respect. Only Baltimore County would occupy more than two districts. A badly needed Baltimore City district (a new District 7) would be created by adding a sliver of Baltimore County’s population to the city’s 631,000 residents. Harford would occupy one district. Anne Arundel would be in two districts not four. Montgomery and Prince George’s would each be included in two districts — the minimum possible given their large populations.
But the Republican map will be ignored. Fatally, it would probably produce a five-to-three party split, with the newly drawn 1st, 3rd and 6th Districts likely to elect Republicans. The 2nd District would become a new swing district, and the 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th would almost certainly stay in Democratic hands.
Yet those results would better represent the political and geographic diversity of the state. Democrats make up 56 percent of Maryland voters and Republicans 27 percent. But the Democrats’ advantage is tightly confined to the city of Baltimore and the D.C. suburbs, with the remainder of the state more competitive or leaning Republican, and unaffiliated voters (about 15 percent) are the fastest rising voting bloc in the state. Because of that, a congressional map yielding a delegation of four Democrats and three Republicans, with one swing district, would be a fair representation of the true political geography of the state. It would without question be much more accurate than a map creating a seven-to-one Democratic advantage.
The Republicans’ proposal isn’t perfect, but it is the standard by which the coming O’Malley map should be judged.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
With Eye on White House, O'Malley Shifts Tactics
The Washington Post is reporting that Governor Martin O'Malley is considering whether to sponsor legislation in the 2012 Legislative Session that would legalize same-sex marriage in Maryland. O'Malley was largely silent on the issue when it was considered, and defeated, during the 2011 session.
The defeat of same-sex marriage in Maryland was viewed as a major defeat for an issue that has recently earned the support of a majority of Americans, but remains deeply unpopular among many influential groups - including African-American religious leaders, the U.S. Catholic Conference of Bishops, and multiple conservative Christian organizations.
The movement was revitalized, however, when the New York Assembly approved a measure legalizing same-sex marriage in the Empire State. New York became only the sixth, but the largest, state to legalize same-sex marriage. That same-sex marriage was legalized in New York and not Maryland is made even more interesting given that the New York State Senate is controlled by Republicans. Maryland's State Senate is home to 35 Democrats and only 12 Republicans - Republicans lack even sufficient numbers to filibuster legislation - same sex marriage narrowly passed in the Maryland Senate in 2011. Maryland's House of delegates is home to 98 Democrats and 43 Republicans - same-sex marriage died in the House of Delegates after an intense effort by African-American religious leaders and state Catholic leaders convinced several sponsors of the legislation to withdraw their support.
Nearly every analyst agrees that the crucial player in New York was the state's governor Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo, a Democrat, is in his first term and has not shied away from wading into some of the most difficult positions facing his state. Cuomo fought vigorously both publicly and behind the scenes to ensure passage of the bill. Upon taking office he made legalization of same-sex unions a priority.
Like Maryland (and most other states), New York is facing tremendous budget troubles - in New York, like Maryland (and most other states) a significant portion of the budget woes stem from obligations to public employee health and pension plans. Cuomo negotiated a deal with state labor leaders that should save nearly $1.6 billion over 5 years via a three year wage freeze raise, the retirement age for most state workers was raised from 62 to 65 and from 57 to 65 for teachers. Additionally, workers’ contributions to their pensions are to increase from 3 percent to 6 percent of their salaries. And Cuomo won those concessions via amicable negotiations with union leaders.
All of this success has raised Cuomo's profile. Not only are folks viewing him as a leading contender for the 2016 Democratic nomination there have been recent whispers that he may replace Joe Biden as President Obama's running mate in 2012.
For O'Malley, Cuomo's success is anything but a cause for celebration. O'Malley has been using his current position as Chair of the Democratic Governor's Association to raise his own profile. He has picked fights with prominent Republicans like Chris Christie in New Jersey and Scott Walker in Wisconsin and he frequently wades into the national debate - especially with regard to the nation's debt.
O'Malley's intentions are clear - he wants to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016. Unfortunate to his plans, he is being upstaged by a younger, more dynamic, and far more aggressive Democratic governor - Andrew Cuomo. O'Malley's tenure as governor has been marked by a play it safe, take no chances approach to governing. One of O'Malley's first tests as governor was whether Maryland would allow slot machine gambling in the state - rather than propose legislation legalizing slots O'Malley proposed legislation calling for a voter referendum on the issue. When faced with a $1.4 billion budget shortfall during the 2011 legislative session O'Malley presented a budget with no tax increases, but said he would consider increases proposed by the assembly. O'Malley is not a risk taker - he's a caretaker. When public employees took to Annapolis streets to protest the rather modest changes he proposed to their health and pension system O'Malley joined the protest... he protested his own proposal to avoid alienating a key constituency.
I have argued on this blog that O'Malley has been an effective caretaker of the state's budget, but even there, O'Malley is more focused on balancing the books each year than he is with finding long term solutions. Such solutions would carry greater political risk and likely be tied to a grander vision for the state's future. Even when O'Malley has tried to express a vision, it's often little more than boilerplate slogans lacking in specifics. The problem for O'Malley is that voters tend not to respond to politicians that play it safe and govern with no real vision. There is little to inspire loyalty or to stir passions. Running for president requires the passionate commitment of supporters willing to give money, participate in caucuses and primaries, make phone calls, and knock on doors. Becoming governor of Maryland or Mayor of Baltimore simply requires being the candidate with a (D) after your name.
Governor O'Malley enjoys a House of Delegates that is 2 to 1 Democrat and a Senate that is 3 to 1 Democrat - yet he has struggled to have any of his modest agenda enacted. His proposal for the development of offshore wind power was rejected, his proposal for tax credits to bring investors to Maryland was dramatically scaled back. Maryland is home to one of the most powerful governors (on paper) in the nation and O'Malley won re-election in 2010 by a 14.5 point margin - yet he appears to have little influence over a General Assembly dominated by members of his own party. If he were President, he would likely face a Congress either partially or fully controlled by an opposition party.
Cuomo has worked successfully with a divided legislature and has been willing to challenge key members of his constituency. He bargained and exerted his influence on members of both parties to ensure passage of the bills that he supports. Cuomo is a risk taker.
O'Malley and his advisors have seen the future of the Democratic Party and that future looks like Andrew Cuomo - not Martin O'Malley. The O'Malley camp is now attempting to retool the Governor's image. For O'Malley the stakes are high. O'Malley must vacate the governor's mansion in January of 2015 and one assumes that he will transition immediately into full-time presidential candidate. But O'Malley will be coming off of a lame-duck term as governor and worries that his record may compare poorly to that of Cuomo who is likely to be in the midst of his second term as governor in a state with no term limits and therefor no lame-ducks.
Expect to see a more active O'Malley in the coming years - same-sex marriage will be one of many issues that he is likely to pursue more vigorously. Unfortunately for O'Malley his 2 most influential years were the years immediately following his election and subsequent re-election. If the General Assembly felt comfortable ignoring him after a 14.5 percentage point landslide, why would they start to listen to him now?
I support marriage equality, but it's quite unlikely that the Maryland General Assembly will consider, or pass, same-sex legislation in the foreseeable future - owing to the successful petition drive that has at least temporarily halted legislation enacted in 2011 that would grant in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants. Opponents of the measure gathered over 110,000 signatures (more than twice the number required) on a petition to have the measure placed on the ballot in 2012 and either approved or rejected by the voters - the first time in 20 years that such an effort has succeeded.
The success of that ballot initiative (regardless of the outcome in 2012) will serve as a warning to members of the Assembly as they consider same-sex marriage. A similar petition and ballot initiative would likely result in the question of same-sex marriage being put on the ballot in 2014 (though it's possible it would be on the 2012 ballot, state Republicans would likely use whatever means available to defer the issue until the 2014 election) - when Marylanders will elect a Governor, an Attorney General, and every member of the General Assembly. Members of the Assembly will not want to face election or re-election in a year that would see tremendous turn-out by conservative and religious voters determined to defeat same-sex marriage. O'Malley's support of the legislation is likely to have little impact, but had he taken the risk and thrown his support behind the measure in 2011 it may have made the difference.
The defeat of same-sex marriage in Maryland was viewed as a major defeat for an issue that has recently earned the support of a majority of Americans, but remains deeply unpopular among many influential groups - including African-American religious leaders, the U.S. Catholic Conference of Bishops, and multiple conservative Christian organizations.
The movement was revitalized, however, when the New York Assembly approved a measure legalizing same-sex marriage in the Empire State. New York became only the sixth, but the largest, state to legalize same-sex marriage. That same-sex marriage was legalized in New York and not Maryland is made even more interesting given that the New York State Senate is controlled by Republicans. Maryland's State Senate is home to 35 Democrats and only 12 Republicans - Republicans lack even sufficient numbers to filibuster legislation - same sex marriage narrowly passed in the Maryland Senate in 2011. Maryland's House of delegates is home to 98 Democrats and 43 Republicans - same-sex marriage died in the House of Delegates after an intense effort by African-American religious leaders and state Catholic leaders convinced several sponsors of the legislation to withdraw their support.
Nearly every analyst agrees that the crucial player in New York was the state's governor Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo, a Democrat, is in his first term and has not shied away from wading into some of the most difficult positions facing his state. Cuomo fought vigorously both publicly and behind the scenes to ensure passage of the bill. Upon taking office he made legalization of same-sex unions a priority.
Like Maryland (and most other states), New York is facing tremendous budget troubles - in New York, like Maryland (and most other states) a significant portion of the budget woes stem from obligations to public employee health and pension plans. Cuomo negotiated a deal with state labor leaders that should save nearly $1.6 billion over 5 years via a three year wage freeze raise, the retirement age for most state workers was raised from 62 to 65 and from 57 to 65 for teachers. Additionally, workers’ contributions to their pensions are to increase from 3 percent to 6 percent of their salaries. And Cuomo won those concessions via amicable negotiations with union leaders.
All of this success has raised Cuomo's profile. Not only are folks viewing him as a leading contender for the 2016 Democratic nomination there have been recent whispers that he may replace Joe Biden as President Obama's running mate in 2012.
For O'Malley, Cuomo's success is anything but a cause for celebration. O'Malley has been using his current position as Chair of the Democratic Governor's Association to raise his own profile. He has picked fights with prominent Republicans like Chris Christie in New Jersey and Scott Walker in Wisconsin and he frequently wades into the national debate - especially with regard to the nation's debt.
O'Malley's intentions are clear - he wants to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016. Unfortunate to his plans, he is being upstaged by a younger, more dynamic, and far more aggressive Democratic governor - Andrew Cuomo. O'Malley's tenure as governor has been marked by a play it safe, take no chances approach to governing. One of O'Malley's first tests as governor was whether Maryland would allow slot machine gambling in the state - rather than propose legislation legalizing slots O'Malley proposed legislation calling for a voter referendum on the issue. When faced with a $1.4 billion budget shortfall during the 2011 legislative session O'Malley presented a budget with no tax increases, but said he would consider increases proposed by the assembly. O'Malley is not a risk taker - he's a caretaker. When public employees took to Annapolis streets to protest the rather modest changes he proposed to their health and pension system O'Malley joined the protest... he protested his own proposal to avoid alienating a key constituency.
I have argued on this blog that O'Malley has been an effective caretaker of the state's budget, but even there, O'Malley is more focused on balancing the books each year than he is with finding long term solutions. Such solutions would carry greater political risk and likely be tied to a grander vision for the state's future. Even when O'Malley has tried to express a vision, it's often little more than boilerplate slogans lacking in specifics. The problem for O'Malley is that voters tend not to respond to politicians that play it safe and govern with no real vision. There is little to inspire loyalty or to stir passions. Running for president requires the passionate commitment of supporters willing to give money, participate in caucuses and primaries, make phone calls, and knock on doors. Becoming governor of Maryland or Mayor of Baltimore simply requires being the candidate with a (D) after your name.
Governor O'Malley enjoys a House of Delegates that is 2 to 1 Democrat and a Senate that is 3 to 1 Democrat - yet he has struggled to have any of his modest agenda enacted. His proposal for the development of offshore wind power was rejected, his proposal for tax credits to bring investors to Maryland was dramatically scaled back. Maryland is home to one of the most powerful governors (on paper) in the nation and O'Malley won re-election in 2010 by a 14.5 point margin - yet he appears to have little influence over a General Assembly dominated by members of his own party. If he were President, he would likely face a Congress either partially or fully controlled by an opposition party.
Cuomo has worked successfully with a divided legislature and has been willing to challenge key members of his constituency. He bargained and exerted his influence on members of both parties to ensure passage of the bills that he supports. Cuomo is a risk taker.
O'Malley and his advisors have seen the future of the Democratic Party and that future looks like Andrew Cuomo - not Martin O'Malley. The O'Malley camp is now attempting to retool the Governor's image. For O'Malley the stakes are high. O'Malley must vacate the governor's mansion in January of 2015 and one assumes that he will transition immediately into full-time presidential candidate. But O'Malley will be coming off of a lame-duck term as governor and worries that his record may compare poorly to that of Cuomo who is likely to be in the midst of his second term as governor in a state with no term limits and therefor no lame-ducks.
Expect to see a more active O'Malley in the coming years - same-sex marriage will be one of many issues that he is likely to pursue more vigorously. Unfortunately for O'Malley his 2 most influential years were the years immediately following his election and subsequent re-election. If the General Assembly felt comfortable ignoring him after a 14.5 percentage point landslide, why would they start to listen to him now?
I support marriage equality, but it's quite unlikely that the Maryland General Assembly will consider, or pass, same-sex legislation in the foreseeable future - owing to the successful petition drive that has at least temporarily halted legislation enacted in 2011 that would grant in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants. Opponents of the measure gathered over 110,000 signatures (more than twice the number required) on a petition to have the measure placed on the ballot in 2012 and either approved or rejected by the voters - the first time in 20 years that such an effort has succeeded.
The success of that ballot initiative (regardless of the outcome in 2012) will serve as a warning to members of the Assembly as they consider same-sex marriage. A similar petition and ballot initiative would likely result in the question of same-sex marriage being put on the ballot in 2014 (though it's possible it would be on the 2012 ballot, state Republicans would likely use whatever means available to defer the issue until the 2014 election) - when Marylanders will elect a Governor, an Attorney General, and every member of the General Assembly. Members of the Assembly will not want to face election or re-election in a year that would see tremendous turn-out by conservative and religious voters determined to defeat same-sex marriage. O'Malley's support of the legislation is likely to have little impact, but had he taken the risk and thrown his support behind the measure in 2011 it may have made the difference.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Redistricting in Maryland: Can O'Malley Make Maryland a Republican-Free Zone?
Update: Make sure your voice is heard - there will be 12 public hearings on the issue of redistricting - dates and times are available here.
Governor O'Malley has named the members of his Redistricting Task Force and no one should be surprised by its composition.
Recent Census data shows that Maryland's population has grown, but more important to the redistricting process, it has grown more in some Congressional Districts than in others. This means the redistricting Task Force must balance out the district populations such that each district has roughly 721,000 people.
The table below shows the districts that must shrink (Blue) and the ones that need to grow (Green).
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A quick review of the table should show why Democrats are excited about redistricting - 2 of the 3 districts that must shrink are home to Maryland's only two Republican members of Congress. Democrats would very much like to eliminate at least one of those Republicans and most of the focus is on the 1st Congressional District and Representative And Harris. Harris was narrowly defeated in 2008, but won decisively in 2010 in a district that is roughly equally split between Democrats and Republicans - it is Maryland's only swing district.
The 6th Congressional District is more solidly Republican and it would take more than a shift of 17,000 voters to make it competitive.
Democrats may have a very tough time trying to improve upon their current 6 to 2 advantage in the state's Congressional delegation and it largely results from the successful redistricting process completed after the 2000 Census. Prior to the 2001 round of redistricting, Maryland's Congressional delegation was split 4 to 4 between Republicans and Democrats. A Task Force (of 4 Democrats and 1 Republican) appointed by then Governor Parris Glendening developed a map that altered the boundaries of the 1st and 2nd Congressional districts so that two Republicans - Robert Ehrlich and Wayne Gilchrest would now be in the 1st Congressional district. Ehrlich opted to run for governor (and won). The newly open 2nd district was more Democratic and elected Democrat Dutch Ruppersberger.
Maryland's 8th Congressional district was home to moderate Republican Connie Morella. Morella's district consisted of much of Montgomery County and her strength came from the Republican northern suburbs. To eliminate Morella, Montgomery county was spread across three Congressional districts with the more Republican elements packed into the reliably conservative 6th Congressional district.
The plan in 2001 was clear - elect more Democrats. Casper Taylor (D-Allegany), then Speaker of the Maryland House said the plan was the best way to elect more Democrats, arguing "We Democrats deserve six [Democrats] and two" Republicans.
The plan worked. Morella was defeated, Ehrlich left - the delegation was 6 to 2. In 2008, moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the Republican primary by conservative Andy Harris. Harris narrowly lost to Frank Kratovil thanks largely to the Obama win in Maryland. For 2 years Democrats enjoyed a 7 to 1 advantage, but Harris won big in 2010 and now Democrats want the 7 to 1 advantage back.
But how can they do it? Below is a map of the current Congressional districts. The first thing that she be obvious is that the 2001 Task Force produce a work of partisan art - the 2nd, 3rd, 4th are ridiculously drawn districts - drawn not to preserve existing communities but to maximize Democratic votes. Baltimore City is chopped up and spread across 3 districts (denying Baltimore a dedicated member of Congress) and Montgomery County is spread across 3 districts to dilute Republican votes and maximize Democratic votes.
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Hoyer's strength is in Prince Georges and Charles County and he would likely protest the loss of parts of Prince Georges County, but the task force could compensate Hoyer by taking elements of Anne Arundel - a portion of his district that he lost in 2010. Hoyer won with 65% of the vote and an 85,000 vote margin in 2010 - but he lost Anne Arundel County by 12 percentage points (he'd be happy to see it go). Hoyer's district includes 231,000 voters in Prince Georges County and 37,000 in Anne Arundel - he can afford to lose some Prince Georges county voters so long as he loses most, if not all, of his Anne Arundel voters.
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Governor O'Malley has named the members of his Redistricting Task Force and no one should be surprised by its composition.
- Jeanne D. Hitchcock will serve as chair of Task Force. Hitchcock is O'Malley's Secretary of Appointments. Prior to joining the governor's office, she served as Deputy Mayor to then-Mayor Martin O'Malley.
- Thomas V. Mike Miller, Jr., Maryland State Senate President since 1987 and a veteran of past redistricting efforts in 1991 and 2001.
- Michael E. Busch, Maryland Speaker of the House since 2003.
- James King, a former member of the House of Delegates from 2007 to 2011. King is a Republican, but he sided with O'Malley in the past, specifically on the issue of a Slots referendum.
- Richard Stewart, President and Chief Executive Officer of Montgomery Mechanical Services Incorporated.
The Task Force is decidedly Democratic and regardless of O'Malley's promise that the task force will develop a map that represents the diversity of Maryland this will be a decidedly partisan affair and the only thing represented will be the interests of Martin O'Malley and the state Democratic Party.
Recent Census data shows that Maryland's population has grown, but more important to the redistricting process, it has grown more in some Congressional Districts than in others. This means the redistricting Task Force must balance out the district populations such that each district has roughly 721,000 people.
The table below shows the districts that must shrink (Blue) and the ones that need to grow (Green).
A quick review of the table should show why Democrats are excited about redistricting - 2 of the 3 districts that must shrink are home to Maryland's only two Republican members of Congress. Democrats would very much like to eliminate at least one of those Republicans and most of the focus is on the 1st Congressional District and Representative And Harris. Harris was narrowly defeated in 2008, but won decisively in 2010 in a district that is roughly equally split between Democrats and Republicans - it is Maryland's only swing district.
The 6th Congressional District is more solidly Republican and it would take more than a shift of 17,000 voters to make it competitive.
Democrats may have a very tough time trying to improve upon their current 6 to 2 advantage in the state's Congressional delegation and it largely results from the successful redistricting process completed after the 2000 Census. Prior to the 2001 round of redistricting, Maryland's Congressional delegation was split 4 to 4 between Republicans and Democrats. A Task Force (of 4 Democrats and 1 Republican) appointed by then Governor Parris Glendening developed a map that altered the boundaries of the 1st and 2nd Congressional districts so that two Republicans - Robert Ehrlich and Wayne Gilchrest would now be in the 1st Congressional district. Ehrlich opted to run for governor (and won). The newly open 2nd district was more Democratic and elected Democrat Dutch Ruppersberger.
Maryland's 8th Congressional district was home to moderate Republican Connie Morella. Morella's district consisted of much of Montgomery County and her strength came from the Republican northern suburbs. To eliminate Morella, Montgomery county was spread across three Congressional districts with the more Republican elements packed into the reliably conservative 6th Congressional district.
The plan in 2001 was clear - elect more Democrats. Casper Taylor (D-Allegany), then Speaker of the Maryland House said the plan was the best way to elect more Democrats, arguing "We Democrats deserve six [Democrats] and two" Republicans.
The plan worked. Morella was defeated, Ehrlich left - the delegation was 6 to 2. In 2008, moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the Republican primary by conservative Andy Harris. Harris narrowly lost to Frank Kratovil thanks largely to the Obama win in Maryland. For 2 years Democrats enjoyed a 7 to 1 advantage, but Harris won big in 2010 and now Democrats want the 7 to 1 advantage back.
But how can they do it? Below is a map of the current Congressional districts. The first thing that she be obvious is that the 2001 Task Force produce a work of partisan art - the 2nd, 3rd, 4th are ridiculously drawn districts - drawn not to preserve existing communities but to maximize Democratic votes. Baltimore City is chopped up and spread across 3 districts (denying Baltimore a dedicated member of Congress) and Montgomery County is spread across 3 districts to dilute Republican votes and maximize Democratic votes.
The 1st Congressional district covers the Eastern Shore and then slices of Harford and Baltimore County and hops across the Bay Bridge to include parts of Anne Arundel County.
So what can Democrats do in 2011 to improve upon their master gerrymandering stroke of 2001? First, they need to accept that the dream of an 8 to 0 delegation is a lost cause. It would require to many changes to current districts and the state's 6 sitting members of Congress are unlikely to accept that. Democrats should take the 17,000 voters from Bartlett's 6th Congressional district and add them to Edward's 4th and Cummings' 7th. Both districts are overwhelmingly Democratic and overwhelmingly African-American - they could easily absorb the 6th Districts excess (even if that excess is more Republican). Edwards won re-election with 83% of the vote and a 130,000 vote margin in 2010.
Cummings' 7th district would still be well shy of 721,000 and the best scenario would be to take a significant chunk of Prince Georges county from Hoyer's 5th district along with elements of Anne Arundel county. Cummings won with 75% and a 106,000 vote margin in 2010 - Cummings needs 60,000 new members in his district, but so long as some of those folks come from Prince Georges County he can absorb more Republican voters.
Hoyer's strength is in Prince Georges and Charles County and he would likely protest the loss of parts of Prince Georges County, but the task force could compensate Hoyer by taking elements of Anne Arundel - a portion of his district that he lost in 2010. Hoyer won with 65% of the vote and an 85,000 vote margin in 2010 - but he lost Anne Arundel County by 12 percentage points (he'd be happy to see it go). Hoyer's district includes 231,000 voters in Prince Georges County and 37,000 in Anne Arundel - he can afford to lose some Prince Georges county voters so long as he loses most, if not all, of his Anne Arundel voters.
Those changes would balance the populations in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th Districts - leaving only the 1st and the 2nd. The 1st Congressional district needs to shed 22,000 voters and the 2nd Congressional district must add nearly the same - this present Democrats with their greatest chance for a seat gain. Ruppersberger won reelection in 2010 with 64% of the vote and a 64,000 vote margin. Harris won 55% and a 35,000 vote margin. Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Harford counties accounted for nearly 28,000 of his 35,000 vote victory.
The Task Force could take elements of those three counties and move them into Ruppersberger's district - the problem being that Harris won by 35,000 votes and can only lose 22,000 (and some of the 22,000 would be Democrats). Ruppersberger won by 64,000 votes but any movement of Republicans into his district would make it more competitive - at present, it is the most competitive Democratic district in the state.
I believe that the scenario I just presented is the best option for the Democrats - the only way to ensure an 8 to 0 or even 7 to 1 delegation advantage would be via dramatic changes in the states current congressional districts - but I see no way that the state's 6 incumbent Democrats would accept such radical change. Rather, Democrats can make the 1st Congressional district more friendly to Democrats while only making the 2nd district slightly more competitive. The 6th Congressional district must remain a Republican stronghold.
As a final note, I would like to add that I find the whole process of partisan redistricting to be an affront to representative democracy. As with many states, Maryland's current Congressional district map is a ridiculous mess of oddly drawn districts. Communities are divided, counties spread across multiple districts, Baltimore City is treated like a cash machine for Democratic voters spread across 3 districts when it could have its own member of Congress. It would be nice to see the Task Force propose a map that respects county lines, regardless of partisan advantage - that, of course, will not happen.
I would also like to commend the Maryland GOP for releasing their own proposed map:
Notice how county lines are respected. Note as well that Maryland's traditionally recognized regions are represented. The Eastern Shore, Southern Maryland, the DC suburbs, Central Maryland, and Western Maryland. Baltimore City would have a dedicated member of Congress.
Compare the proposed map to the current map - no embarrassments like the presently drawn 2nd, 3rd and 4th Congressional districts. Baltimore County appears to be the only county in more than two districts and even there the division makes sense as elements of the county are joined with Baltimore City.
The Maryland GOP map would protect the 1st and 6th districts for the party. It's also likely that the 2nd, but especially the 3rd would become more competitive. In fact the 3rd would probably flip to the Republicans. But a 5 to 3 delegation would be more representative of Maryland than the current 6 to 2. Democrats make up 56% of Maryland voters, but hold all statewide offices and 75% of the Congressional Delegation. The current district map was drawn to ensure that Democrats won more seats than their registration advantage would naturally produce and it marginalizes Republicans and the growing number of unaffiliated voters in the state. If the Redistricting Task Force draws a map that would make Maryland a 7 to 1 state, 87.5% Democrats in Congress, it would be a body blow to the actual political diversity of the state, a tremendous abuse of process, and a victory for the worst kind of petty partisan politics.
If I were on the Governor's Redistricting Task Force I would walk into work today, hand out copies of the GOP proposal and declare the job done. That probably helps to explain why I am not on the Task Force. That said, the Maryland GOP has proposed a reasonable map, one not marked by partisan gerrymandering, will the Governor's Task Force rise to the occasion and release an equally responsible map?
In a future post I'll talk about Maryland's State Legislative districts - I think there will be a far more drama in the redrawing of those districts.
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