It's Super Tuesday!

Guest post by Mark Snyder

Tonight looks like it'll be a pretty bleak night if your name isn't Romney. Gingrich will win Georgia, but won't get back 50% so it'll be by congressional district and Romney might be able to pick off some of those delegates, Virginia and Massachusetts are non-contests, and the fact Mitt is running only about a point behind Santorum in Tennessee really spells the end to the idea that "anyone but Mitt" might run away with this.

The race up until this point has been about narrative, and it would be hard to imagine waking up to another Colorado/Minnesota/Missouri surprise. At this point Santorum is just shooting himself in the foot left and right, no one is willing to give Gingrich another surge because we've seen him fall too many times already, and Paul will never appeal to more than 30% of the electorate. The narrative is now that Romney has repeated beat back his opponents with his superior money machine and organization at the state level, even though much of that "organization" is a single office in the state it's still comparatively better.

So if Romney wins Massachusetts outright, a popular/delegate advantage in Ohio (bonus points if he wins by more than 5%), picks up some delegates in Georgia, takes all of Virginia, gets close or wins Tennessee, and doesn't get romped in Oklahoma/the caucus states he's going to lock this thing up in all but name. He'll have trouble in Alabama and Mississippi, but if he does better than expected in Tennessee and Oklahoma tomorrow he might sail through the states on the claim of inevitability. Republican voters will start seeing the advantage he has and settle. And after that it's even smoother sailing.

Now a warning. This contest seems to settle into the paradigm for just long enough to have people think they've figured it out, and then we have the revolt in South Carolina or Santorum's triple win. In the end Michigan really was the "anyone but Mitt" contingent’s Waterloo. The media keeps building them up only to have them torn down, first in NH, then Florida, then Michigan and Arizona; eventually voters will start listening less to how a candidate is doing right now and focus on the long term.

Romney continues to have an enthusiasm gap as compared to the supporters of Santorum and Paul, but in the general election much of his base will be made up of disaffected moderates who will be voting against Obama more than for Romney. The attacks of Romney’s moderate tendencies may in fact help him in the long run if a majority of the Republican electorate recognizes that he is their best bet to beat Obama.

After Super Tuesday we'll finally see that Republicans may not have fallen in love with Romney over the last few months, but they're going to fall in line to beat Obama.

Romney and Inevitability by Any Other Name

A Guest Column by Mark Snyder:

After his decisive victory in Florida Mitt Romney looked all but assured to sail through the rest of the
contests and to the nomination, mostly due to Rick Santorum’s persisting inability to raise money
and organize volunteers and Newt Gingrich’s rapidly declining favorability numbers. He had shaken off the rebuke of South Carolina voters in Florida and ended up winning almost every major demographic group, winning the primary 46% of the vote and leading his next closest competitor, Gingrich, by 14 points.

Romney then went on the win Nevada with a full 50% of the vote, leaving Gingrich 29 points behind him. Even though Nevada was a state Romney was all but assured to win, the inevitability narrative seemed to be building. The month of February was not going to be a kind one to Gingrich, and Santorum still was not making enough money or building enough of a ground game to be taken seriously.

With Santorum’s sweep of Colorado, Minnesota, and the beauty contest in Missouri the inevitability narrative once again comes into some doubt.

Nate Silver opined after Romney’s win in Florida (and it looked even more true after his Nevada win) that there were a number of ways forward, but can be boiled down to four: the contest ends early and Romney
wins, the battle stretches on but Romney pulls it off, Santorum emerges as the anti-Romney that the media has been saying the Republican base is looking for, or the contest stretches on all the way to a brokered convention.

The first two looked like the likely scenarios, but now with Romney’s upset earlier this week are the latter too looking like better bets?

The answer, in my mind, is no. For several reasons.

First, Romney still holds a huge money lead. According to the latest FEC filing Romney has raised over $57 million, more than the rest of his competitors combined. Not only does this mean Romney will be able to control the airwaves if his campaign so chooses, but he will be able to go to the convention with just the money he has on hand at the moment, which differentiates him from his competitors. The super PAC
supporting Romney, Restore our Future, is also sitting high above the water financially, and showed its willingness to get involved aggressively on behalf of Romney in Iowa. The super PAC has also recently made a media buy in Ohio, a state seen as key for all of the contenders.

Second, though Romney’s favorability ratings have recently taken a hit he is not alone, as mentioned before Gingrich’s has as well, and now increased scrutiny of Santorum’s record and personal statements are
starting to have a negative effect on his ratings. Romney, though not seen as a good candidate by those who consider themselves very conservative, has maintained strong support from moderate Republicans and Independents in exit polls in the first four contests.

Finally the anyone but Romney contingent, Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul, face serious questions about how electable they actually are; all three trail Pres. Obama in Gallup surveys, while Romney is running even with him nationally, and beating him in many swing states. In Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida voters who thought that the ability to defeat Obama is the most important characteristic in a candidate overwhelmingly supported Romney. The exception was in South Carolina, where they support Gingrich 51%/37%, which can be attributed to the mini-implosion of the Romney campaign, marked by their handling of attack on Romney’s time at Bain Capital, his refusal to release his tax records, and his subjugation by Gingrich during the debates.

Looking forward Romney should be able to prove his inevitability with wins in Michigan and Arizona, but look for Gingrich and Santorum to stay long past those primaries. Due to the way the RNC fashioned
the primary season it is impossible for any one candidate to win enough delegates to become the nominee this early, however if Romney can cement his front runner status and make it stick this time, look for him to suck all of the oxygen out of the room, leaving Santorum and Gingrich languishing with dwindling funds and even dimmer prospects.

Romney’s relatively weak finish in Maine, along with the incredible low turnout, only bolsters the importance of the Michigan and Arizona primaries in the coming weeks. The current polling number suggest an interesting scenario: Romney could win Arizona by a large margin (50% to Gingrich’s 26% and Santorum’s 14%) and lose Michigan to Santorum (40% to Romney’s 27%, and Gingrich with 18%) With polling numbers in those states few and far between the current numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.

The Michigan and Arizona primaries are February 28th.

Mark Snyder is a Senior Political Science major at St. Mary's College.

Peter Franchot, the Progressive Conservative

I continue to be impressed with Comptroller Peter Franchot and his maneuvering toward the 2014 gubernatorial contest. With the redistricting "battle" behind us and the special legislative session of the General Assembly adjourned, all attention has shifted to the upcoming regular session and the question of tax increases. A panel convened by Governor O’Malley and tasked with identifying new revenue streams to pay for transportation infrastructure improvements has endorsed a $0.15 a gallon increase in the state's gas tax, they also endorsed significant increases in automobile titling and registration fees and a doubling of the vehicle emissions inspection fee. Not to be outdone, A state task force is considering doubling and then tripling the state's so-called "flush tax" from its current $30 per year to $90 by 2015.

In response to these proposals, Franchot has called for a two year freeze on all new taxes and fees to “give businesses and consumers time to catch their breath.”

A few months ago, Franchot made headlines arguning Maryland needed to be less reliant on the federal sector for job creation. I argued at the time that it was a smart move and showed Franchot was trying to position himself as the conservative option in a Democratic gubernatorial primary that is likely to feature two well-known, and progressive, Democrats - Attorney General Doug Gansler and Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown.

Democrats' routinely win about 60% of the statewide vote so winning the Democratic primary is a doorway to the governorship. Gansler is an unabashed liberal and Brown, the state's first African-American Lt. Governor and an accomplished legislator with an impressive resume, will undoubtedly lay an early claim to the significant African-American vote.  So Gansler and Brown will split two of the most reliable segments of the Democratic primary voting population - liberals and African-Americans.

This creates an opening for a moderate to conservative Democrat to lay claim to white, moderate and conservative Democrats, of whom there are many in Maryland.

But the situation is even better for Franchot. The three Democratic power centers in Maryland are Baltimore City, Montgomery county, and Prince Georges county. Democrats routinely lose most of the other counties in the state, but win those population centers. In a primary contest, a candidate who could claim those regions would be unbeatable - but if they are divided then the state's remaining, and far more conservative counties, become crucial.  Brown hails from Prince Georges county and if he is able to consolidate the African-American vote then he is likely to claim Prince Georges county and Baltimore City - much as Kweisi Mfume did in the 2006 Senate primary against Ben Cardin. Cardin bested Mfume by winning Montgomery county, Baltimore county and Anne Arundel county by nearly 2-to-1 margins.

Gansler and Franchot are from Montgomery county and both have held elective office there. They would likely split the county's vote. If one were to return to the 2006 Senate primary, a cursory review of election results would seem to suggest that Gansler and Franchot splitting the vote outside of Baltimore City and Prince Georges county would benefit Brown. But the 2006 Senate primary was missing something, something Franchot is looking to bring to the 2014 gubernatorial contest - a moderate/conservative option for Democratic primary voters. In 2006, Democratic turnout in more conservative counties (Allegheny, Carroll, Frederick, Washington) was below overall turnout. If Franchot offers moderate and conservative Democrats a reason to vote in a primary contest there is reason to suspect that turn-out in more conservative parts of the state would increase - this presents Franchot with his path to victory.

The greatest obstacle to Franchot would be the entry into the race of another moderate/conservative Democrat - like Howard county Executive Ken Ulman. Not only would Ulman lay claim to Howard county's crucial bloc of voters, he would divide the moderate/conservative primary vote. If that were to be the case, Brown would cruise to victory.

Franchot has one path to the nomination and it requires an undivided appeal to the state's sizeable bloc of moderate and conservative Democrats. His opposition to new tax increases stakes an early claim to those voters and is a wise move.

That said, there is cause for progressives to rally behind him as well. All of the tax increases currently being debated are incredibly regressive taxes that will disproportionately harm low-income and working class families. Raising taxes on gas and increasing fees for auto registration is not like raising the cigarette tax - people can simply decide to stop smoking to avoid that tax. But there is no substitute for gas and in most parts of Maryland public transportation is not an option. Worse, in a weak economy, people have to take jobs wherever they can find them and in a weak housing market they cannot simply sell their home and move to where jobs may be - so they need to drive to work and sometimes they need to drive a considerable distance (especially if you live in rural areas... conservative, rural areas). For low-income and working class families, cars and gasoline are not conveniences, they are crucial lifelines.

That the Governor and the General Assembly would even consider such a regressive assault on the economic well-being of working families is unconscionable. Democrats raising taxes and fees on working families is no less egregious than Republican attempts to cut services to these folks. But Democrats are avoiding more progressive forms of taxation and targeting the poor for the same reason Republicans refuse to consider tax increases for the wealthy and cut programs for the poor - the wealthy vote, but turn-out drops sharply as income levels fall.

Of course the counter argument would be that the new taxes and fees would effect everyone, rich and poor alike. But the poor lose a much greater share of their income to excise taxes and fees. Although state and county-level data is difficult to obtain, federal tax data does demonstrate the regressive nature of excise taxes in general and on fuel specifically. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bottom 20% of wage earners pay nearly 1% of their income on excise taxes on gasoline and motor fuel alone. By contrast, the top 20% pay only 0.3% of their income on such taxes. When all federal excise taxes are considered, the proportional burden placed on the bottom 20% rises to nearly 2.8%, while the burden placed on the top 20% is only 0.5%. A 3% burden compared to a 0.5% burden... that's the very definition of regressive folks.


Franchot's latest smart move is doubly smart - it appeals to more conservative minded Democrats by calling for greater fiscal responsibility AND it may play well with true progressives offended by the state's attempt to balance its books on the backs of the poor.

Well played Mr. Franchot.

Interesting Turnout Dynamics in Maryland

In 2002, when neither Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend nor Republican Bob Ehrlich faced serious primary threats Townsend received roughly 400,000 votes to Ehrlich's 200,000 - a 2 to 1 margin that closely matched the Democrats' registration advantage. Roughly 100,000 Democrats opted to vote against Townsend in the primary. So there was a 2.5 to 1 turnout advantage among Democrats, but 20% lodged a protest vote against Townsend and she went on to lose the general election.

In 2006, neither Ehrlich or Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley faced any primary challenge. O'Malley received 500,000 votes to Ehrlich's 200,000 - essentially the same 2.5 to 1 turnout in 2002, but the Democratic vote was unified.

In 2010, O'Malley faced no serious challenge and Ehrlich did. So far, there have been 411,000 Democratic votes cast and 255,000 Republican votes. Ehrlich has claimed 76% or 195,000. O'Malley has received 86% or 354,000. Three things stands out - 1) Democratic turnout is barely 1.6 to 1 over Republican, an incredibly low ratio, 2) O'Malley's advantage over Ehrlich is thus less than Townsend's over Ehrlich in 2002, and 3) 14% of Democratic voters have lodged a protest vote against O'Malley.

If these ratios hold then tonight will be a bad night for Martin O'Malley and perhaps indicative of a rough general election to come.

In the 5th Congressional District, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's district, Republicans have nominated newcomer Charles Lollar. In 2008 there were 110,000 Democratic votes cast in the primary and only 28,000 Republican votes - 3.5 to one in a district that is 2 to 1 Democrat. Hoyer won in 2008 75% to 25%. Tonight, there have been 53,000 Democratic votes so far to 25,000 Republican votes - about 2 to 1.  This suggests that even Hoyer may have a race on his hands - though odds are still very much in his favor.

In Maryland the Only Surprise is the Lack of Surprises

With early returns in the AP has called the gubernatorial races for Martin O'Malley and Robert Ehrlich. In the end, insurgent Republican Brian Murphy fizzled. Ehrlich carried 78% of vote in early returns - simply trouncing Murphy. Any suggestions that the result indicates a weakness for Ehrlich are simply wrong. Murphy was a reasonably well financed candidate with a strong organization, and Tea Party backing - Murphy should have cracked 25% or more. Look across the border in Delaware where Christine O'Donnell toppled establishment Republican Mike Castle in that state's Senate primary and you see how well insurgent Republicans are doing this year. Murphy underperformed...

In other news - Republican Andy Harris easily won the nomination for a rematch against Frank Kratovil in the 1st Congressional District and political newcomer Charles Lollar appears destined to challenge Majority Leader Steny Hoyer in Maryland's 5th Congressional District.

Midterm Clues In Primary Races

There were primary elections in several states on Tuesday and theyoffered some clues on the November midterms. In 2008, Barack Obama won 365 Electoral Votes to John McCain's 173. Among Obama's tally were Ohio's 20, Virginia's 15, and North Carolina's 13 votes. Key to Obama's victory was exceptionally high turnout among Democratic voters. There were statewide primaries in each of these states on Tuesday and Democratic turnout was down dramatically. As detailed by National Journal, Democratic turnout was down across the board - and not compared to the 2008 election, but compared to other off year primary elections. Republican turnout, however, was up. In Ohio, GOP turnout for the Secretary of State primary was up over 50% compared to 2006.

Gallup adds more to the challenge facing Democrats in a new poll that finds 43% of Republicans are "very enthusiastic" about voting, compared to just 33% of Democrats.

One can add one more ominous sign for Democrats - twenty term incumbent Rep. David Obey (WI-07), the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, has announced that he will not seek re-election. When someone as powerful as Obey sounds the retreat in a district with a Democratic voter registration advantage the evidence is clear that 2010 will not be a good year for Democrats, in fact it may be a disaster.