On the morning after the Maryland primary I wrote a piece in which I argued the results revealed some dangers for Maryland Democrats. In the newly gerrymandered 6th congressional district more Republicans than Democrats turned-out to vote even though the 6th district featured the only contested Democratic congressional primary in the state.
I argued then that the presence of ballot initiatives on marriage equality and the Maryland Dream Act may boost conservative and Republican turn-out in November. Such a boost may be enough to protect Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (the Republican targeted by the 6th district gerrymander) and could provide a boost ( a boost, not a win) to Republican Dan Bongino's challenge to incumbent Senator Ben Cardin.
Democrats in the state reacted as they always do when I dare to be critical of them - by accusing me of being a Republican plant trying to provide spin (the fact that I support marriage equality, the Dream Act, and Sen. Cardin are apparently all a part of my brilliant cover). I'm just a fan of good government and two party competition - it helps keep the parties honest and responsive to the public when in power.
I stand by what I wrote in April and I think the new Gonzales poll lends credence to what I wrote. The just released poll finds Ben Cardin receiving the support of only 50% of potential voters. Cardin is vulnerable. He's the most vulnerable Democrat in the state either statewide or at the federal level.
For reasons that I cannot fully explain, Cardin has consistently received the lowest approval ratings of all statewide Democrats. This is surprising to me in that Cardin is one of the few grown-ups left in DC. He demonstrates no clear partisan zeal and seems dedicated above else to simply doing his job. His reward for being an adult has been marginal approval ratings in prior polls and a bare minimum 50% reelect number in this new poll.
The only explanation I can offer is that the lingering effects of the Cardin/Mfume primary in 2006 and the Cardin/Muse contest in April have resulted in soft support for Cardin among African-American Democrats. Cardin receives 71% of the African-American vote in this poll - low for an incumbent Democrat. African-Americans are they most loyal and important voting bloc for the Maryland Democratic Party, yet the party has repeatedly passed over African-American candidates for statewide office. And the newly gerrymandered Congressional districts denied African-Americans a deserved third majority-minority district so that African-American voters could be used to instead protect incumbent white Democrats. African-American voters have cause to be upset with the state party and Cardin may be the outlet for their frustrations.
Yet Cardin will win reelection by double digits. Why? Because two candidates are vying for the 50% of voters not committed to Cardin. The Republican nominee, Dan Bongino, is a political neophyte with precious little money but an impressive life story and credentials. The other candidate on the ballot is Rob Sobhani, an Independent candidate with deep pockets (and equally impressive credentials) who has twice sought and lost the Republican nomination for Senate in Maryland - both times to horrible alternatives.
Bongino has spent nothing on advertising (his first ads start tomorrow) and Sobhani has spent $1.4 million over a recent two week period. The Gonzales poll shows the result of that spending imbalance - Bongino and Sobhani split the anti-Cardin vote down the middle.
The Bongino/Sobhani split reveals one of the greatest contributions to the ongoing success of the Maryland Democratic party (despite it's many problems) - the complete dysfunction of the Maryland Republican Party. Sobhani is a moderate Republican and that likely explains his prior nomination defeats. The Gonzales poll shows him drawing more support among Independents than either Cardin or Bongino. But Maryland's Republican Party refuses to acknowledge a simple reality - the path to being a viable alternative to the Maryland Democratic Party runs through the political center and not to the political right.
Republicans in Democratic states like Massachusetts have shown that moderate GOP candidates can win, but the Maryland GOP keeps running to the right. And that opens the party to a third party threat that will only protect Democrats.
In the last 35 years Democrats have witnessed their voter registration advantage fall from a 70% - 25% split to a 56% - 26% split. Voters have been leaving the the party. But they have been registering as Independents or unaffiliated voters. Maryland Republicans have not been able to capitalize on that decades long flight from the Democrats. In fact, Republicans did better in Maryland when Democrats had a larger registration advantage - because the party ran candidates like Connie Morella, Wayne Gilchrest, and Mac Mathias. Those folks would be run out of the party today - in fact Gilchrest was.
Unless state Republicans can broaden their appeal and design an agenda and a message tailored to Maryland voters and not the national GOP base they will continue to lose races - even ones that are winnable. The Maryland GOP seems to think it can just run on an agenda of "we oppose everything the Democrats do" and win. No, not enough. The Maryland GOP were first to nominate a woman for Governor and first to nominate an African-American for statewide office. Yet they've done nothing policy-wise to broaden their appeal. Nominating candidates is not enough. African-Americans may be frustrated with the state Democratic Party, but the MD GOP has given no reason in recent years for African-Americans (or any minority group for that matter) to even consider supporting a Republican.
The smartest thing the MD GOP could do to begin broadening their appeal is open their primaries to Independent and unaffiliated voters. The Republican base may not like that option or the centrist nominees it would produce, but one has to assume they'd come around pretty quickly if they actually started winning elections again. Of course an upside to this would be that Democrats would then open their primaries and the two parties would compete for Independent voters.
In the absence of a competitive Republican Party, Marylanders will be left with the governance of a single dominant party that has grown complacent and arrogant in the absence of any check on its power. No one is served well by such a situation (No one other than deep pocketed special interest groups like the gambling industry that was able to buy a special session of the General Assembly).
If the goal for the GOP and Sobhani is to defeat Cardin then either Sobhani or Bongino need to exit the race. If the goal, however, is to help reelect a worthy public servant by a comfortable margin then both men are doing an excellent job.
Showing posts with label cardin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cardin. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Thoughts on the Maryland Primary
The headline of course is the Romney sweep of Maryland. Romney won the state and all 8 congressional districts. He won every county accept for Somerset and Garrett. Add that to the Wisconsin (and DC) win and this race is over - whether Rick Santorum wants to admit it or not. Santorum was strongest where one would expect - western MD, southern MD, and the eastern shore. But in those areas he was not a s strong as he should've been. He won Garrett but lost Allegany. In the south he ran well in St. Mary's but was crushed in Calvert, a pattern repeated on the shore. Romney won the state by 20 points and is on the cusp of 50% of the vote in a 4 man race. Maryland delivered the nomination to Romney.
In the Senate contest between Ben Cardin and Anthony Muse, Muse failed catch fire. Muse claimed 16% of the vote, but only ran strong in his home base of Prince Georges county - where he pulled nearly 40% of the vote. In Baltimore City he finished shy of 20%. Muse should've focused his efforts on Baltimore City. That said, Cardin received just under 75% of the vote and received 42,000 fewer votes than President Obama.
In 1970, incumbent Democratic Senator Joseph Tydings was seeking reelection against a relatively unknown GOP challenger. That same election Governor Marvin Mandel was running and widely expected to win comfortably. Indeed Mandel did win, but a sufficient number of voters withheld their vote from Tydings (he had taken some actions that angered the party base) that he narrowly lost the race. Cardin needs to find out why 25% of voting Democrats opted for someone else. Cardin was weakest in Baltimore City, Charles County and Prince Georges County - clearly suggesting a weakness with African American voters. The lesson to learn for Joseph Tydings is that Cardin cannot take for granted that folks who turnout in November 2012 to vote for President Obama will vote for Cardin as well. Cardin is the clear favorite to win, but there is an opening for the GOP nominee Dan Bongino.
The other big story of the night was in the newly drawn 6th Congressional District. The 6th district had been a reliably Republican district, but Maryland Senate President Mike Miller redrew the district specifically for MD Senate Majority Leader Rob Garagiola. He took care to draw the boundaries such that potential challengers lived outside the district. Garagiola had the backing of state Democratic party establishment including Steny Hoyer and Martin O'Malley. But he was crushed last night by John Delaney. Delaney has never held elective office and - to add insult to injury - he doesn't even live in the district. This was an embarrassing defeat for many Democratic bigwigs, especially O'Malley. Delaney was endorsed by current O'Malley foil Comptroller Peter Franchot. Delaney's victory raises questions about O'Malley's level of influence in the state and boosts Franchot's expected run for governor in 2014.
Another very interesting aspect of the 6th district contest was the number of Republicans and Democrats voting. As redrawn Democrats hold a voter registration advantage over Republicans of 183,000 to 141,000, with "Unaffiliated/Other" at about 90,000. The real contest in the 6th was in the Democratic primary as everyone expected GOP incumbent Roscoe Bartlett to win. Yet in this newly created Democratic district with a hard fought Democratic contest more Republicans cast ballots. In every other district (except the conservative 1st) Democrats outvoted Republicans - but not in the 6th. Come November, the presence of several high profile ballot measures (same-sex marriage, the MD Dream Act, and possibly even the new Congressional Districts) will boost turnout by Republicans and social conservatives. At this point, I would not be surprised to see the GOP hold onto the 6th district seat.
In the Senate contest between Ben Cardin and Anthony Muse, Muse failed catch fire. Muse claimed 16% of the vote, but only ran strong in his home base of Prince Georges county - where he pulled nearly 40% of the vote. In Baltimore City he finished shy of 20%. Muse should've focused his efforts on Baltimore City. That said, Cardin received just under 75% of the vote and received 42,000 fewer votes than President Obama.
In 1970, incumbent Democratic Senator Joseph Tydings was seeking reelection against a relatively unknown GOP challenger. That same election Governor Marvin Mandel was running and widely expected to win comfortably. Indeed Mandel did win, but a sufficient number of voters withheld their vote from Tydings (he had taken some actions that angered the party base) that he narrowly lost the race. Cardin needs to find out why 25% of voting Democrats opted for someone else. Cardin was weakest in Baltimore City, Charles County and Prince Georges County - clearly suggesting a weakness with African American voters. The lesson to learn for Joseph Tydings is that Cardin cannot take for granted that folks who turnout in November 2012 to vote for President Obama will vote for Cardin as well. Cardin is the clear favorite to win, but there is an opening for the GOP nominee Dan Bongino.
The other big story of the night was in the newly drawn 6th Congressional District. The 6th district had been a reliably Republican district, but Maryland Senate President Mike Miller redrew the district specifically for MD Senate Majority Leader Rob Garagiola. He took care to draw the boundaries such that potential challengers lived outside the district. Garagiola had the backing of state Democratic party establishment including Steny Hoyer and Martin O'Malley. But he was crushed last night by John Delaney. Delaney has never held elective office and - to add insult to injury - he doesn't even live in the district. This was an embarrassing defeat for many Democratic bigwigs, especially O'Malley. Delaney was endorsed by current O'Malley foil Comptroller Peter Franchot. Delaney's victory raises questions about O'Malley's level of influence in the state and boosts Franchot's expected run for governor in 2014.
Another very interesting aspect of the 6th district contest was the number of Republicans and Democrats voting. As redrawn Democrats hold a voter registration advantage over Republicans of 183,000 to 141,000, with "Unaffiliated/Other" at about 90,000. The real contest in the 6th was in the Democratic primary as everyone expected GOP incumbent Roscoe Bartlett to win. Yet in this newly created Democratic district with a hard fought Democratic contest more Republicans cast ballots. In every other district (except the conservative 1st) Democrats outvoted Republicans - but not in the 6th. Come November, the presence of several high profile ballot measures (same-sex marriage, the MD Dream Act, and possibly even the new Congressional Districts) will boost turnout by Republicans and social conservatives. At this point, I would not be surprised to see the GOP hold onto the 6th district seat.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Ballot Initiatives May Impact 2012 Election in Maryland
The possibility of two high profile ballot measures - repeal of the MD DREAM Act and Same-Sex marriage - may make the 2012 election in Maryland anything but boring.
Ordinarily, a presidential election year in Maryland is pretty boring stuff. No Republican presidential candidate has carried the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988 and no Republican has won a Senate race since Mac Matthias in 1980. In 2008 Maryland delivered Barack Obama one of his largest victory margins.
At first blush, one would be forgiven for expecting 2012 to be another boring presidential election year in the Free State. Though President Obama's approval rating nationally is languishing in the mid-forties his approval in Maryland is just north of 50% - thanks largely to the overwhelming support of African American voters. Democratic Senator Ben Cardin will be seeking election to a second term and in the midst of the 2010 Republican tidal wave, Cardin's senior counterpart, Barbara Mikulski, cruised to reelection with 60% of the vote.
Maryland's Congressional districts were just redrawn as well and the state's two safe Republican districts (the 1st on the Eastern shore and the 6th in Western Maryland) were reduced by half with Rep. Roscoe Bartlett's district redrawn to include a host of new Democratic voters from Montgomery county.
Normally, one would expect 2012 to be year in which Republicans and conservative Independents and Democrats might decide to stay home - but there's reason to believe that 2012 will be anything but a normal presidential election in Maryland. Indeed, 2012 may reveal serious divisions within the state's Democratic electorate and the creation of some strange political bedfellows.
During the 2011 legislative session, the General Assembly passed a controversial measure known as the Maryland DREAM act. Under the bill, signed into law by Governor O'Malley, the children of undocumented residents would be granted the opportunity to attend Maryland colleges and universities and pay in-state tuition. The public backlash to the new law was significant and with precious little effort or money an opposition group quickly gathered enough signatures to suspend the law and place it on the ballot in 2012. By design, it is very difficult in Maryland to mount a successful petition drive against a piece of legislation but organizers gathered twice the number of required signatures in record time.
The 2011 session also saw the defeat of Same-Sex marriage legislation. Though such measures have passed in the House of Delegates in the past they always died in the Senate. In 2011, the Maryland political world was shaken when then the Senate narrowly passed the measure. Under tremendous pressure from community religious leaders the bill died in the House when an unlikely coalition of black Democrats from Baltimore City and Prince Georges County joined with rural Democrats and Republicans in opposition to the bill.
Same-Sex marriage will be up for a vote during the 2012 session and if it is approved this time there is every expectation that another petition drive will place it on the ballot along with the DREAM Act in 2012.
To understand the potential impact of these two measures on the 2012 vote one need only review the new poll from Gonzales Research. The poll finds voters evenly divided on both measures with 49% opposing the DREAM Act and 48% supporting it. On same-sex marriage 49% favor it and 47% oppose it. The more interesting results, however, come from the results among specific voting blocs.
Democrats (62%) and Independents (56%) support same-sex marriage, but 76% of Republicans oppose it. Independents and Republicans make-up 40% of the state's electorate and the high level of opposition among Republicans coupled with the 4 in 10 Democrats and Independents opposed helps explain the state's split support. The more interesting division, however, is between Democrats overall and black voters (nearly all of whom vote Democratic in Maryland). Though 62% of Democrats support same-sex marriage, nearly the same share - 60% - of black voters oppose it. This represents a significant division among the Democratic electorate.
On the DREAM Act Republicans (71%) and Independents (52%) oppose it Democrats (61%) support it - but not overwhelmingly. Black voters (56%) support the measure.
So how can these numbers help us understand the 2012 election?
Ben Cardin vs. Anthony Muse
Prince Georges County Senate Democrat C. Anthony Muse has announced his intention to challenge Ben Cardin the Democratic party primary. Muse has been a vocal opponent of same-sex marriage and voted against the measure in the 2011 session. Though Cardin enjoys a 68% approval rating among state Democrats, Muse could use the same-sex marriage issue to drive a wedge between Cardin and black voters and conservative Democrats. Cardin has spoken favorably with regard to protecting the civil rights of same-sex partners but has largely avoided taken a position on the issue of same-sex marriage. A challenge by Muse would likely force Cardin to take a firm position. If Cardin endorses same-sex marriage it may provide an opening for Muse.
Even if Cardin wins the nomination, a serious challenge by Muse could weaken him heading into November (Cardin only has a 51% job approval rating) and the presence of same-sex marriage on the ballot may undermine his support among black voters even as they turnout to reelect President Obama. If a credible GOP candidate could siphon some of the Black vote, or more realistically they withhold their vote for Senate, that combined with turn-out by social conservatives opposed to same-sex marriage and the DREAM Act could face Cardin with a serious challenge.
Maryland's 6th, 8th, and 2nd Congressional Districts
In the newly drawn 6th Congressional District, the ballot measures may save Roscoe Bartlett's job. Based on a vote analysis of the prior and newly adopted congressional districts one would expect a Democrat to win the new 6th district in a presidential election year. But, increased turn-out by conservatives and social conservative would likely make the electorate more similar to the 2010 midterm. In that case, Bartlett may just squeak to victory - dashing Democratic plans to claim a new seat in Congress.
Turn-out by social conservatives and any degree of dissension within the ranks of key Democratic voting blocs could spell trouble for Chris Van Hollen and his newly drawn and decidedly less Democratic 8th district as well as Dutch Ruppersberger in the 2nd district where black voters are crucial to his reelection success.
In the end, Maryland is a democratic state. Republicans have won statewide elections only twice in the last 32 years. Odds favor a strong democratic showing in 2012, but do not discount the impact of these two ballot measure and their potential to disrupt what would otherwise be a boring election year in Maryland.
Ordinarily, a presidential election year in Maryland is pretty boring stuff. No Republican presidential candidate has carried the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988 and no Republican has won a Senate race since Mac Matthias in 1980. In 2008 Maryland delivered Barack Obama one of his largest victory margins.
At first blush, one would be forgiven for expecting 2012 to be another boring presidential election year in the Free State. Though President Obama's approval rating nationally is languishing in the mid-forties his approval in Maryland is just north of 50% - thanks largely to the overwhelming support of African American voters. Democratic Senator Ben Cardin will be seeking election to a second term and in the midst of the 2010 Republican tidal wave, Cardin's senior counterpart, Barbara Mikulski, cruised to reelection with 60% of the vote.
Maryland's Congressional districts were just redrawn as well and the state's two safe Republican districts (the 1st on the Eastern shore and the 6th in Western Maryland) were reduced by half with Rep. Roscoe Bartlett's district redrawn to include a host of new Democratic voters from Montgomery county.
Normally, one would expect 2012 to be year in which Republicans and conservative Independents and Democrats might decide to stay home - but there's reason to believe that 2012 will be anything but a normal presidential election in Maryland. Indeed, 2012 may reveal serious divisions within the state's Democratic electorate and the creation of some strange political bedfellows.
During the 2011 legislative session, the General Assembly passed a controversial measure known as the Maryland DREAM act. Under the bill, signed into law by Governor O'Malley, the children of undocumented residents would be granted the opportunity to attend Maryland colleges and universities and pay in-state tuition. The public backlash to the new law was significant and with precious little effort or money an opposition group quickly gathered enough signatures to suspend the law and place it on the ballot in 2012. By design, it is very difficult in Maryland to mount a successful petition drive against a piece of legislation but organizers gathered twice the number of required signatures in record time.
The 2011 session also saw the defeat of Same-Sex marriage legislation. Though such measures have passed in the House of Delegates in the past they always died in the Senate. In 2011, the Maryland political world was shaken when then the Senate narrowly passed the measure. Under tremendous pressure from community religious leaders the bill died in the House when an unlikely coalition of black Democrats from Baltimore City and Prince Georges County joined with rural Democrats and Republicans in opposition to the bill.
Same-Sex marriage will be up for a vote during the 2012 session and if it is approved this time there is every expectation that another petition drive will place it on the ballot along with the DREAM Act in 2012.
To understand the potential impact of these two measures on the 2012 vote one need only review the new poll from Gonzales Research. The poll finds voters evenly divided on both measures with 49% opposing the DREAM Act and 48% supporting it. On same-sex marriage 49% favor it and 47% oppose it. The more interesting results, however, come from the results among specific voting blocs.
Democrats (62%) and Independents (56%) support same-sex marriage, but 76% of Republicans oppose it. Independents and Republicans make-up 40% of the state's electorate and the high level of opposition among Republicans coupled with the 4 in 10 Democrats and Independents opposed helps explain the state's split support. The more interesting division, however, is between Democrats overall and black voters (nearly all of whom vote Democratic in Maryland). Though 62% of Democrats support same-sex marriage, nearly the same share - 60% - of black voters oppose it. This represents a significant division among the Democratic electorate.
On the DREAM Act Republicans (71%) and Independents (52%) oppose it Democrats (61%) support it - but not overwhelmingly. Black voters (56%) support the measure.
So how can these numbers help us understand the 2012 election?
Ben Cardin vs. Anthony Muse
Prince Georges County Senate Democrat C. Anthony Muse has announced his intention to challenge Ben Cardin the Democratic party primary. Muse has been a vocal opponent of same-sex marriage and voted against the measure in the 2011 session. Though Cardin enjoys a 68% approval rating among state Democrats, Muse could use the same-sex marriage issue to drive a wedge between Cardin and black voters and conservative Democrats. Cardin has spoken favorably with regard to protecting the civil rights of same-sex partners but has largely avoided taken a position on the issue of same-sex marriage. A challenge by Muse would likely force Cardin to take a firm position. If Cardin endorses same-sex marriage it may provide an opening for Muse.
Even if Cardin wins the nomination, a serious challenge by Muse could weaken him heading into November (Cardin only has a 51% job approval rating) and the presence of same-sex marriage on the ballot may undermine his support among black voters even as they turnout to reelect President Obama. If a credible GOP candidate could siphon some of the Black vote, or more realistically they withhold their vote for Senate, that combined with turn-out by social conservatives opposed to same-sex marriage and the DREAM Act could face Cardin with a serious challenge.
Maryland's 6th, 8th, and 2nd Congressional Districts
In the newly drawn 6th Congressional District, the ballot measures may save Roscoe Bartlett's job. Based on a vote analysis of the prior and newly adopted congressional districts one would expect a Democrat to win the new 6th district in a presidential election year. But, increased turn-out by conservatives and social conservative would likely make the electorate more similar to the 2010 midterm. In that case, Bartlett may just squeak to victory - dashing Democratic plans to claim a new seat in Congress.
Turn-out by social conservatives and any degree of dissension within the ranks of key Democratic voting blocs could spell trouble for Chris Van Hollen and his newly drawn and decidedly less Democratic 8th district as well as Dutch Ruppersberger in the 2nd district where black voters are crucial to his reelection success.
In the end, Maryland is a democratic state. Republicans have won statewide elections only twice in the last 32 years. Odds favor a strong democratic showing in 2012, but do not discount the impact of these two ballot measure and their potential to disrupt what would otherwise be a boring election year in Maryland.
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