No fewer than seven candidates are vying for the opportunity to take on Larry Hogan in November. Polling shows that a significant number of Democrats are undecided as to who should be the party's standard bearer in 2018. That being said, three names consistently top the polls - Prince Georges County Exec Rushern Baker, Baltimore County Exec Kevin Kamenetz, and former NAACP leader Ben Jealous. Those his lead varies, Baker tops the other other two in every poll.
Situated well behind the top three, mired in single digits, you'll find State Senator Rich Madaleno, tech entrepreneur Alec Ross, attorney and Democratic party insider Jim Shea, and Krishna Vignarajah a former policy aide to Michelle Obama.
Precious little has changed in each candidate's polling standing since the first surveys were conducted in September of 2017 even though candidate name recognition is steadily improving. The latest Goucher poll found that nearly half of Democrats were undecided while the new Mason Dixon poll placed the share closer to one-third. Either way, such a high share of undecideds in a 7 person race suggests that much remains to be settled in this contest.
There is reason to suspect that Baker, Kamenetz, and Jealous top the polls because they enjoy much greater name recognition than do the remaining candidates. In fact, Kamenetz and Jealous have closed the gap with Baker as their name recognition numbers have risen. Among the grassroots, however, the state of the race looks a bit different.
There have been several candidate forums since October 2017 and many have featured a straw poll with a ballot cast prior to the forum and a ballot cast after the forum. Such pre/post surveys help to tease out support based on name recognition versus support based on a candidates positions.
In the United for Maryland forum held on 10/14/17, Ben Jealous (39 votes) and Rich Madaleno (37 votes) were the top choice of the 180 voting attendees on the pre ballot, Baker finished 3rd, followed by Ross and Vignarajah in 4th and Kamenetz in 5th. In the post ballot, Madaleno (now in 1st place), Ross, Vignarajah, and Kamenetz all saw there support increase while support for Baker and Jealous declined. The number of undecideds fell from 64 to 36. Regardless of who they supported going into the forum, over one-third of attendees changed their mind after hearing from the candidates.
Situated well behind the top three, mired in single digits, you'll find State Senator Rich Madaleno, tech entrepreneur Alec Ross, attorney and Democratic party insider Jim Shea, and Krishna Vignarajah a former policy aide to Michelle Obama.
Precious little has changed in each candidate's polling standing since the first surveys were conducted in September of 2017 even though candidate name recognition is steadily improving. The latest Goucher poll found that nearly half of Democrats were undecided while the new Mason Dixon poll placed the share closer to one-third. Either way, such a high share of undecideds in a 7 person race suggests that much remains to be settled in this contest.
There is reason to suspect that Baker, Kamenetz, and Jealous top the polls because they enjoy much greater name recognition than do the remaining candidates. In fact, Kamenetz and Jealous have closed the gap with Baker as their name recognition numbers have risen. Among the grassroots, however, the state of the race looks a bit different.
There have been several candidate forums since October 2017 and many have featured a straw poll with a ballot cast prior to the forum and a ballot cast after the forum. Such pre/post surveys help to tease out support based on name recognition versus support based on a candidates positions.
In the United for Maryland forum held on 10/14/17, Ben Jealous (39 votes) and Rich Madaleno (37 votes) were the top choice of the 180 voting attendees on the pre ballot, Baker finished 3rd, followed by Ross and Vignarajah in 4th and Kamenetz in 5th. In the post ballot, Madaleno (now in 1st place), Ross, Vignarajah, and Kamenetz all saw there support increase while support for Baker and Jealous declined. The number of undecideds fell from 64 to 36. Regardless of who they supported going into the forum, over one-third of attendees changed their mind after hearing from the candidates.
The story was similar at the United for Maryland event at Carderock on 2/18/18. Though nearly half of the attendees entered the forum undecided, Ben Jealous (19 votes) and Rich Madaleno (17 votes) led among those who did have a preference. Ross (10 votes) finished 3rd, followed by Kamenetz (6 votes), and Vignarajah (2 votes). After the forum, the number of undecideds fell by nearly two-thirds. Support for Madaleno (40 votes) and Vignarajah (17 votes) increased significantly occupying 1st and 2nd place respectively. Jealous fell to 5th place.
The United for Maryland and Greater Baltimore Grassroots forum on 2/24/18 told essentially the same tale. Out of 217 voting attendees at the start of the event, Ben Jealous was the clear favorite with 52 votes. Madaleno was a distant 2nd with 23 votes, closely followed by Alec Ross (22 votes). Vignarajah (18), Baker (13), Kamenetz (10), an Shea (7) finished out the list. After the forum, Jealous fell to 4th place with 28 votes. Madaleno (41 votes) moved to 1st place and Vignarajah (38 votes) moved to 2nd. Baker (5 votes) finished last behind Ross (33 votes), Kamenetz (22 votes), and Shea (9 votes).
So what does all of this mean? Well, maybe nothing. The crowds at these forums were young, and we know from years of research that the folks who attend Democratic forums tend to be more politically active and liberal than the general Democratic electorate. So the attendees are hardly a representative sample of all Democratic voters in Maryland. It's also possible for a candidate to pack a forum with his or her supporters in order to influence the poll results. That being said, years of research also tells us that the folks who tend to vote in Democratic primaries are more politically active and liberal than the general Democratic electorate. And, were a campaign trying to "stuff the ballot box" one would expect less difference between the pre forum and post forum results. The folks attending the Democratic forums are hearing something during the forums sufficient to make them shift their support - and not in the direction of the supposed front-runners.
Much can happen between now and the June 26th primary, but the high level of undecideds coupled with the volatility demonstrated by the candidate forum pre and post surveys all suggest that the Democratic race to succeed Hogan is far from settled.
