To Reclaim the Governor's Mansion, MD GOP Should Look to McKeldin

In 1950, incumbent Democratic governor William Preston Lane was seeking reelection. Lane had won the office 4 years earlier by a wide margin. But by 1950, Lane was in trouble. He had committed his administration to taking on the numerous infrastructure improvements that had been delayed by WWII - including the Bay Bridge. Lane financed these improvements with an increased sales tax. Few could dispute the need for the improvements, yet the tax proved to be quite unpopular. In 1950, Lane was challenged for the Democratic nomination by George Mahoney. Mahoney was a conservative Democrat who appeared often on ballots during that era. Lane survived the primary challenge but emerged from the contest weakened.

In the general election he faced off against the former Republican Mayor of Baltimore City, Theodore Roosevelt McKeldin. McKeldin trounced Lane 57% to 42% in the election. At the time, it was the widest victory margin for any gubernatorial candidate in the state and it remains the high watermark for GOP candidates for governor. McKeldin was an effective and successful chief executive. He was what many today would call a New England Republican or a Rockefeller Republican. He did not dismiss government as evil or even a necessary evil - rather it served an important purpose. For McKeldin, that purpose was largely infrastructure and Marylanders benefit from his legacy any time they travel I-695, I-495, or US Route 50. McKeldin was re-elected in 1954 and after leaving public life in 1959, was reelected Mayor of Baltimore City from 1963-1967. He was the last two term Republican governor in MD and the last Republican Mayor of Baltimore City.

So what does any of this have to do with 2014 and the MD Republican gubernatorial nominating contest? I argue there are several things to be learned from McKeldin and the 1950 election. One important lesson being unpopular policies can harm a candidate even if voters support the need for the policies. Lane was seriously harmed by the increased sales tax - even as voters recognized the good that was coming from the revenue. Over the past 7 years, Marylanders have been subject to numerous tax increases - sales, income, gas, fees - voters in this Blue state may support the programs being funded, but that doesn't mean they're not smarting from the lost income. The increased sales and gas taxes may be the most onerous. Voter anger weakened Lane and created an opening for McKeldin.

The 1950 contest tells us as well that divisive primaries can provide opportunities for Republicans. The battle between Mahoney and Lane left the party divided and Lane weakened. This kind of party division also helped Republican Spiro "Ted" Agnew win the governorship in 1966. There is tremendous potential for a very divisive Democratic primary contest in 2014. At present, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and Attorney General Doug Gansler have nowhere to go other than the governor's mansion. Each man will fight like hell to win the party's nomination. Such a pitched battle could leave the Democratic electorate divided - providing an opening for the GOP. Such divisions occurred in 1950, 1966, and even in 2002 - when many in the party were less than thrilled by the coronation of the lackluster Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Townsend furthered party divisions by tapping a white Republican to be her running mate. Republicans won the governor's mansion in each of those years.

Finally, McKeldin was the right kind of Republican for Maryland. Make no mistake, McKeldin was a partisan. He was a proud Republican. But McKeldin was also a realist. In 1950, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by about 2.6-1. McKeldin could not win without winning over Democrats. Ever the pragmatist, McKeldin worked hard to win over elements of the Democratic electorate left divided after their party's primary. McKeldin took elements of Mahoney's and Lane's agendas and made them part of his own. He downplayed partisanship, instead focusing on accountability. He argued Lane had presided over wasteful spending and unnecessarily high taxes. He argued that Lane was inaccessible and simply a part of the Democratic party machine. As governor, he focused on governmental reform and increased transparency in the state. He stood up to unions and other entrenched interests - rarely invoking party.

Republicans do have an opportunity in 2014 to repeat 1950 (though repeating McKeldin's 15 point victory margin is beyond impossible- but winning by 1.5% or 0.15% is still winning). If Anthony Brown is nominated, he will carry with him the weight of Martin O'Malley's tenure in office. For all of the good - spending in check, funding for education, same sex marriage, etc... - he will also bear the burden of the bad - a declining tax base, mediocre job growth, higher gas, sales, and income taxes, and a government sorely lacking in transparency and electoral accountability. The GOP must look to the McKeldin model, it must run on an agenda that is economic and not social. It should make government a central issue, but not by portraying it as a force of evil. Rather, it must be presented as an essential partner. But a partner in need of reform and oversight. Brown must be portrayed as being part of the party machine, a candidate incapable of and unwilling to commit to needed reforms (his laundry list of endorsements by the establishment should make that an easy argument). The GOP needs to run a campaign based on reform and accountability. A campaign about anything else will just elect the democratic nominee.

In an upcoming post I'll look at the candidates for the GOP nomination, but at present, only one declared candidate appears ready to carry forward the McKeldin mantle and reclaim the governor's mansion in Maryland. And that's Harford County Executive David Craig.

As Early Voting Ends, Numbers Suggest A Republican Victory in MD-1

Update: Early voting ended yesterday and the trends in the 1st District have held - 46.4% of ballots cast by Republicans, 42.9% by Democrats, 10.7% by Others. These numbers must be very encouraging to Harris, and probably explain why the Democratic Party is now spending money on behalf of the Libertarian candidate in the 1st District - hardly a sign of confidence.

Original Post: Maryland's 1st Congressional district is the quintessential swing district. It is 41.6% Democrat, 41.7% Republican, and 16.7% Other (mostly unaffiliated). In 2008, Democrat Frank Kratovil won against Republican Andy Harris by 2,000 votes. Kratovil is facing Harris in a rematch. Recent polls have been inconsistent with the race either tied or with Harris ahead by 4 or 11 points.

According to early voting data in Maryland, turnout has been highest in the 1st Congressional district and the numbers thus far should encourage Harris supporters. Statewide, Democratic turnout has been stronger than Republican turnout, but not in the 1st District. Republican turnout is higher and as of 10/26 Republicans have cast 46.6% of the votes, Democrats 43.4%, and Other 10%.  These numbers take on added significance given that a poll released last week by Monmouth University caused quite a stir as it showed Harris opening an 11 point lead in the race. The partisan breakdown in that poll was 46% Republican, 45% Democrat, and 9% I - so far, Republican turnout is better and Democratic turnout worse than the Monmouth sample.

In the Monmouth poll, Harris and Kratovil did equally well among their respective party's, but Harris enjoyed a 24 point lead among Independents. If I take the Monmouth poll's level of support by party ID and apply it to the early voting numbers then Harris is leading 52.4% to 47.6% - a 5 point margin. But that may understate Harris' margin. Monmouth reported both actual respondent registration as well as self-reported registration. Actual registration was the 46% R, 45% D, and 9% I - but self reported ID was 39% R, 33%D and 28% I - meaning far more Democrats are rejecting the party label than are Republicans, and, according to Monmouth, supporting Harris.

As an aside, the Baltimore Sun released a poll this week showing this race to be tied, that same poll showed that Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley had opened a 14 point lead over former Governor Bob Ehrlich. Early voting data suggests that the Harris/Kratovil race is anything but tied - one must wonder if the O'Malley/Ehrlich numbers in the Sun poll are off as well. According to the Ehrlich campaign, a poll conducted for them by Public Opinion Strategies finds the race statistically tied at 47% O'Malley to 44% Ehrlich among likely voters.

A 3 Point Race for Maryland Governor?

According to an Ehrlich campaign internal poll the race for Maryland governor is within the margin of error:

"Contrary to what The Baltimore Sun and Washington Post want you to believe, this race is extremely close. A survey commissioned by the Ehrlich campaign shows that as of yesterday, the campaign for governor was statistically tied among those most likely to vote. That’s right: 47 percent of the most likely voters support O’Malley and 44 percent support Bob Ehrlich, with a margin of error of 4 percent."

The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, the same firm that polled for candidate Ehrlich in 2002. Public Opinion Strategies is a well respected polling firm that polls for NPR, NBC, and the Wall Street Journal.

I have requested additional details on the poll and will post more if I receive those details, but this result seems far more realistic than the 14 point race suggested by recent Washington Post and Baltimore Sun polls and would explain why the O'Malley campaign has been bringing heavy hitters like President Obama and former President Clinton to the state. If this were a 14 point race, or even a 10 point race, Obama and Clinton would be spending time elsewhere.

In Maryland: Two Polls, Two Very Different Findings, but the Same Results?

Two polls in as many days suggest that Martin O'Malley has opened a formidable 14 point lead over former governor Bob Ehrlich - the Baltimore Sun reports that O'Malley has a 52% to 38% lead over Bob Ehrlich. The next day the Washington Post reported an O'Malley lead of 54% to 40%. Reporters from both papers seemed less than convinced by the poll results, but took comfort in the seemingly similar results - two polls, two papers, two pollsters - a 14 point lead.

In reality, the polls are quite different. Consider:

The Washington Post sees an likely voter electorate that is 59% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 11% Independent or other. The Sun poll is 57%, 30%, and 13% - not much difference, but both likely overstate Democratic turnout.

Things get a little weird when you dig a bit deeper into the cross tabs- the Post reports that Ehrlich wins Republicans by a 92% to 6% margin and wins Independents 52% -36% - he also receives only 7% of the Democratic vote. In the Sun poll, Ehrlich is doing poorly among Republicans winning 78% to O'Malley's 12% (the rest are undecided). The Sun also reports that Ehrlich is losing among Independents 37% to O'Malley's 52% - a mirror image of the Post poll. Finally, Ehrlich wins 18% of Democrats to O'Malley's 72%. The Sun also finds Ehrlich losing among men, 43% to 48% and women, 34% to 55% - in the Post Ehrlich is winning men 48% to 46%, and losing women by 62% to 33%.

So, compared to the Post, the Sun finds Ehrlich doing far worse among Republicans, losing considerably among Independents, but faring much better among Democrats- yet the topline margins are the same 14 points. So how do they arrive at the 14 point margin?  The Sun assumes a higher turnout among Independents than does the Post, but has O'Malley winning them. The Post has Ehrlich doing well among Independents, but horribly among Democrats and over states Democratic turnout.

When I take the various results and turn them into more likely turnout and support assumptions - 56% Democratic, 31% Republican, 13% Independent - and assume, realistically, that Ehrlich wins Independents and Republicans by the margin in the Post, and Democrats by the margin in the Sun then this becomes a 6 point race - 53% to 47%, advantage O'Malley. I think that's about where this race is - and the Sun and the Post should resist using the other's polls to assuage doubts about each poll based on the significant differences evident in the cross-tabs. There can be no question, however, that Ehrlich is clearly behind and by more than just a few points.

I'm Martin O'Bama and I Approve of this Message

Bob Ehrlich and Martin O'Malley met for a third time today on WOLB radio. The station has a largely African American audience and issues of concern to the African American community topped the agenda early on and throughout. 

A casual listener may have been confused, however, and wondered if President Obama was running for governor of Maryland. On question after question O'Malley made reference to President Obama - President Obama is moving America forward and he needs our help to move Maryland forward. The great recession is ending and President Obama prevented a great depression.

O'Malley referred to health care as a great and "courageous" accomplishment for President Obama, his response had little to do with the question asked, but O'Malley again had to link himself to President Obama. Ehrlich offered a reasonable critique of the health reform bill, he defended some of it, criticized others - it's what a governor, what any thinking person, should do. O'Malley was so busy trying to convince voters that a vote for O'Malley was the same as a vote for Obama that he refused to even consider questioning anything the President has done and at times it seemed that he spent more time discussing Obama's record than his own. I fully expect the next O'Malley ad to end with the tag "I'm Martin O'Bama and I approve of this message."

O'Malley's worst response came early on when host Larry Young asked O'Malley to defend his zero tolerance policy while Mayor of Baltimore - a policy that resulted n the mass arrests of innocent African American men. O'Malley completely ignored the question and never defended the program.

Ehrlich had no "worst moment" but at times spent too much time talking about fact checkers instead of just refuting O'Malley. But Ehrlich did come across as a moderate and reasonable voice in a debate where O'Malley seemed like little more than a cheerleader and yes-man for President Obama.

In general I would have rated the debate a draw, if not for O'Malley's constant deference to everything President Obama has ever done. It simply came across as cheap pandering. I have to assume that the audience saw through the incredibly obvious tactic - and they should have been somewhat offended by it.

I commend Larry Young for doing an excellent job hosting the debate.

As Expected, a Closer Race in Maryland

A new poll from Maryland's best pollster, Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies, shows the O'Malley/Ehrlich contest to be a 4.5 point race - 46.9% to 42.4%. This makes much more sense than other polls that have shown a much larger O'Malley lead. Ehrlich has had a serious problem breaking the mid-40s barrier in most polls. O'Malley's approval is below 50% (where it's always been) but probably close enough to 50% in this Democratic state.

The poll makes reasonable turnout assumptions and though it shows Ehrlich within 5 points it also suggests that Ehrlich will have a tough time winning the state. It is the first poll since Ehrlich began a new round of advertising and it reflects some post debate samples.

In general, the poll shows that Ehrlich needs to boost his numbers among Democrats and in the Baltimore suburbs. O'Malley enjoys a tremendous lead in the Wasington suburbs.

Ehrlich v O'Malley Round Two....

The debate is over, what a difference from Monday. Ehrlich was focused and on message and I believe that he won the debate. O'Malley's answers to nearly every question were essentially the same as his answers on Monday, rather than seeming polished they seemed rehearsed. Also, during the Monday debate it was clear that neither man liked the other. Today, Ehrlich was much more respectful toward O'Malley, but O'Malley was almost dismissive of Ehrlich.

Ehrlich was also strong in response to the question about O'Malley's reference to "coded language" in the last debate. When asked, O'Malley again suggested that Ehrlich was not friendly to the interest of "poor black" citizens and Ehrlich quickly turned that into a criticism of the sales tax which he said was a regressive tax that hit poor families the hardest.

I wasn't a fan of the "silly" rapid fire questions, but one was revealing. When asked about things people may not know about the candidates and favorite music, Ehrlich had fun with the question. O'Malley revealed that he "works too hard" and passed on the favorite song question. It reinforced this rather cold demeanor that had throughout the debate.

I think O'Malley's worst moment was the discussion of pensions for state workers his "I've appointed a commission" answer is wearing thin.  Ehrlich clearly stated that defined benefit must end, as has nearly everywhere for private employees. O'Malley would not commit to ending defined benefit pensions. Mr. Governor, that ship has sailed and this election cycle voters do not want to hear about protecting generous pensions for public employees. O'Malley stumbled.

Ehrlich's weakest moment was actually on the question of the state recognizing same sex marriage. He dismissed the issue before the question was complete. It is a serious matter and deserved more serious treatment. O'Malley's defense was strong, yet O'Malley's record of leadership on the issue is non-existent.

I thought the Ehrlich's closing statement was much stronger this time as well , he was very focused on taxpayers and small business. Stated that O'Malley views citizens as a source of revenue, Ehrlich sees them as a source of jobs. He mentioned rising taxes and collapsing 401(k)s - I think he tapped into the narrative of the national political landscape well.

I give round two to Ehrlich, he was the clear winner of the debate.

Quick Reaction to Maryland Gubernatorial Debate

My very quick take on the debate:

No game changers and no clear winner. O'Malley was more polished, Ehrlich had a chance to answer O'Malley's ads.

I think that O'Malley crossed a line with his reference, twice, to the use of "coded language" during the discussion of student performance in Baltimore. It was a thinly veiled accusation of racism and I think that it was so out of left field that it tainted O'Malley's performance. Ehrlich says that the "being born poor should not determine the quality of a child's education" and O'Malley responds by accusing Ehrlich of racism. It was not O'Malley's finest moment.

Ehrlich's insistence on giving the final closing statement was just a bad moment for him. Who cares who goes first, O'Malley was happy to go first or second. The exchange diminished Ehrlich in comparison and his closing statement wasn't especially powerful or focused so I'm not sure why he cared about the order.

Live Blogging the Maryland Gubernatorial Debate - Keep Refreshing the Page

So, who won?  O'Malley was more polished - as he usually is - I'm not sure that 2010 is a year for polished politicians. That said, O'Malley stayed more focused, used questions to his advantage and had key talking points that he hammered away at. I think that his defense of taking federal funds and his tax increase may have been missteps.

Ehrlich had weak opening and closing statements, but found his footing in between. He needed to hammer away at O'Malley on the sales tax and income tax increases, and did so only late in the debate. His focus on federal funds to prop up spending was wise. I also think that he did a good job of talking about non-Republican issues like furlough, help for minority child in failing schools, working families and the sales tax.

On balance, I think O'Malley was more focused and on message, but his reference, twice, to the use of "coded language" suggesting that Ehrlich was race baiting was a very unfortunate, and frankly indefensible attack.  It was a cheap shot made, I assume, to motivate African American voters. It tainted O'Malley's performance.

Ehrlich entered tonight's debate trailing in the polls. I can't think of anything in the debate that would change the dynamic of the race. I can see why Ehrlich has agreed to multiple debates. O'Malley has a clear cash advantage and the debates are free advertising for Ehrlich - but he needs to be more focused and clearly refute O'Malley's ads. O'Malley needs to reconsider his defense of using federal stimulus funds to plug the state's budget - that issue is a loser in 2010.

I cannot wait for the next debate.

7:55 - Closing Statements - who cares who goes first? Ehrlich looked bad in that exchange.

O'Malley mentions new economy and states that will win and move forward. Innovation economy mentioned again. I am on your side. Big "everything" have people on their side. I'm on your side. I need your help.

Ehrlich - Big is evil, except when it's a casino and gives O'Malley $16,000. Ehrlich defends record on employment, ICC, Maryland has record unemployment, tax increases and we have a choice in November.

Ehrlich does not do opening and closing statements well.

7:50 - Immigration - Ehrlich mentions tuition and driver licenses - he blocked in-state tuition and could not block the drivers licenses. Casa de Maryland using state money to assist illegal behavior. We are all immigrants, but should accept one culture. No in state tuition, no driver's licenses. Democrats and Republicans have failed on this policy.

O'Malley criticizes existing immigration law and defers to federal government. Need comprehensive reform. Mentions that Ehrlich said multiculturalism in bunk.  Do not blame new Americans for our problems. Mentions Wall Street and unfunded Wars.

7:45 - Campaign Ads- Why negative? O'Malley calls his ads fair and pointing out Ehrlich's "fantasy world." "I have an obligation to compare and contrast records." We've run positive ads as well. Mentions new business developments.

Ehrlich - O'Malley spent $24 billion more. Thanks "Andrew" for the question.  O'Malley has run "over the top" negative ads. "Blamed me for the Louisiana oil spill" Ehrlich says that with all of his advantages O'Malley has gone negative, because negatives work. But O'Malley went negative so early. But Ehrlich should have challenged specific ads and didn't. His answer is not focused enough. Cute response about buying ads on Ehrlich's radio show.

O'Malley criticizes Ehrlich's radio show and mentions that Ehrlich took federal money as well.

Ehrlich now mentions the $1.4 billion tax increase under O'Malley. He needs to hammer away at that. Mentions "victory parties" but no new jobs and doubled unemployed. Again you spent more, I left you a $1 billion surplus.

O'Malley makes an odd reference to President Bush and defends tax increase. Argues that taxes are lower for 41% of Marylanders due to tax exemptions and earned income tax credit.

Ehrlich accuses O'Malley of class warfare. Maryland General Assembly would not cut taxes. O'Malley blames Bush, but what about jobs?

7:40 - Firearms? Why does anyone care? Ehrlich reaffirms defense of 2nd amendment. Gun violence driven by addiction. Mentions Supreme Court affirmation of gun rights.

O'Malley - Gun and gun violence fuel crime. O'Malley believes in limiting access to rapidfire guns. Defends Baltimore's crime reduction record. Parole, probation, juvenile services part of solution.  O'Malley is making better use of the question to talk about crime.  Mentions 24,000 DNA backlog lleft by Ehrlich. Caught 270 violent offenders.  Strong answer from O'Malley.

Ehrlich - DNA sample bill was an Ehrlich initiative. Ehrlich created the database and the new work. Mentions the blanket arrests in Baltimore under O'Malley. This is a tough, but accurate criticism. Ehrlich needs to be more focused though. That was a tough hit at O'Malley and he should have spent more time on it. Stop talikng about guns - get back to the mass arrests in Baltimore.

O'Malley - DNA backlog went analyzed. "C'mon, man" Steep decline in homicide rates.

Ehrlich - but law enforcement endorsed me.

7:30 - Teachers - O'Malley defends furloughs as better than mass layoffs. O'Malley says that we protected children's achievement levels. Education should not be a recession victim.

Ehrlich again says no to furloughs. May not save what you expected. Ehrlich speaks directly to state employees. Interesting tactic, may help in Maryland. Stands him apart from Republican Party. Speaks to low income single families working for state, sales tax, community college increases- Ehrlich is appealing to working families. Interesting tactic.

O'Malley says that Ehrlich worked to overthrow union contracts and that Ehrlich would cut education funding. O'Malley is back to education.

Ehrlich says that O'Malley is not funding things that he claims to support, but rather he is using temporary federal funds not fixed dollars. Ehrlich says that O'Malley is using federal funds to continue spending and that money will go away.

O'Malley defends using federal funding. Not sure if that is a good tactic.

Ehrlich attacks again the use of federal money.

7:25 - Public Education - O'Malley should be strong on this. Says he provided record funding for schools, recognized as among the best, won Race to the Top federal grant. Doubled charter schools. Incentives to recruit teachers to hard schools.

Ehrlich - Supported funding Thorton. We have some very good schools in well off areas.  But what of the failing schools in Baltimore City? Schools that O'Malley would not help them in 2006. Ehrlich is being passionate about Baltimore schools. Takes credit for charter schools in the state. "Born poor should not determine quality of education." This is Ehrlich's strongest answer so far.

O'Malley's response was below the belt and a bit disturbing. Ehrlich made a passionate defense of quality education and O'Malley accused him of using coded language - essentially suggesting that Ehrlich was denegrating "children of color."

Ehrlich's response was strong, we must defend the rights of children of color.

O'Malley's use again of the term "coded languge" that's such a loaded accusation.

I think Ehrlich wins that exchange because O'Malley went dirty.


7:15 - Taxes?  O'Malley will not pledge to not raise taxes, mentions Ehrlich's increases in fees, property taxes, and business filing fees.  Says that he decreased spending - state spending (he is excluding federal dependent spending).  O'Malley says the state is creating jobs. Mentions innovation economy again - is this a message that resonates?

State workers? Ehrlich says no to furloughs. It demoralizes workers. On the Budget - O'Malley's budgets were $24 billion more than Ehrlich's - O'Malley just used federal dollars. Ehrlich needs to do a better job clearly stating what he's talking about. Says he doubled need based aid for college. Fewer Maryland kids are being admitted to Maryland schools - makes it more affordable for out of staters.

O'Malley - Making college more affordable is crucial, "innovation economy" again. College prices increased under Ehrlich by 40%. Ehrlich did not freeze college tuition, forced a 40% increase. O'Malley had a 4 year freeze. Ehrlich did vote to increease property tax.

Ehrlich - property tax went down. Governors do not set tuition. O'Malley ads are half truths.


7:10 - The Economy - Ehrlich needs to win on this issue. Maryland "hostile" to business. Too much regulation, no net gain of jobs. "Small business community is backbone of community. Business people need answers, not hostility. Small business and source to tax or a source of jobs. We cannot rely on federal spending or base closings."  Strong answer from Ehrlich, but still needs to be focused.

O'Malley reminds that all are hurting. O'Malley links regulation to the health of the Bay. "Key to creating jobs is transformation into innovation. Biotech, life science." O'Malley says 33,000 net new jobs in Maryland - not sure of his math there. Unemployment has doubled. US Chamber of Commerce named Maryland #2 state for technology.

Ehrlich - Reminds all that we get a lot of federal dollars from NHI, Military, 216,000 Marylanders out of work. Maryland had higher "pro-business" rating under Ehrlich. This is about "private sector jobs" not public sector jobs.

7:05 - Opening statements, Casual Bob Ehrlich has come to the debate, Ehrlich needed to be more formal in in this debate. His opening statement was not focused. Spent more time thanking people than anything else.

Too Serious Martin O'Malley has come, he's trying to hypnotize the audience with his stare.  His statement is more foccused. Ehrlich says "Governors matter" but O'Malley is explaining why.

O'Malley wins the opening statement.

7PM - The stakes are high, especially for Ehrlich. He's trailing and needs a solid performance. O'Malley just needs to avoid any mistakes.

I'll be live blogging the gubernatorial debate in Maryland tonight starting at 7pm.

Maryland Morning Discussion of the Citizens United Ruling

On Friday October 8th, I spoke with Sheilah Kast of WYPR's Maryland Morning about the effect of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Citizens United v. FEC on Maryland as well as the gubernatorial race and the race in the 1st Congressional District. Listen to the segment.

In Maryland, Can Ehrlich Halt the Slide?

Though I stand by my recent critique of the Washington Post poll that showed Martin O'Malley with an 11 point lead over Bob Ehrlich, the latest statewide survey from Rasmussen Reports shows that Ehrlich has clearly lost momentum in the race. I believe the reason is O'Malley's aggressive and effective advertising campaign. Every morning as parents are getting their kids ready for school or daycare or otherwise prepping for the day they are treated to a number of positive ads touting O'Malley's support for education funding and even more hard hitting negative ads linking Bob Ehrlich to corporate interest and, brazenly, attacking Ehrlich for tax and fee increases during his tenure and for a 72% electricity rate hike by BGE.



O'Malley could be called to the mat on many of these issues, but especially on the issue of tax increases and the BG&E rate hikes.  On taxes, it is astonishing that O'Malley has chosen to run against Ehrlich on that issue. Though Ehrlich did preside over increases in titling fees, a new flush tax for the Bay, and a small property tax increase, O'Malley called a special session of the General Assembly in 2007 and substantially increased the state sales tax and the income tax. But the ads and claims have gone largely unanswered. With regard to BG&E, Ehrlich inherited a rate increase that resulted from poorly crafted legislation. The General Assembly had imposed a multi-year rate freeze on BG&E and that freeze expired in 2006. BG&E responded by raising rates to market levels. During the 2006 campaign, Martin O'Malley pledged to "take on" BG&E and halt the rate increases - even running campaign ads based on the pledge.



In the end, however, for all of the sound and fury the BG&E rate hike went into effect under Martin O'Malley's newly elected administration. The Ehrlich campaign has produced a video refuting the BG&E claims by O'Malley - but good luck ever seeing the ad on TV.



O'Malley clearly enjoys a cash advantage in this race and he has used that advantage to run a very effective ad campaign that has driven Bob Ehrlich's negatives higher. Everyone knew this would be a race decided by 4 points here or there and the O'Malley team knew that they just needed to raise doubts in the minds of the small group of undecided voters. Recent surveys suggest that they have done just that. The question now is whether the Ehrlich campaign has the time and the resources to effectively counter the O'Malley machine. They have to hope that it's not already too late.

The candidates have agreed to two debates so far, the first of which will air on Oct. 11. Ehrlich needs to bring his best game and appeared passionate and engaged. He needs to remind voters of his recently released Roadmap 2020 and enunciate a clear vision for the state - something he failed to do in 2006. If he fails to do that, he may not be able to recover. O'Malley tends not to connect well with voters in formal events and he needs to avoid sounding rehearsed or detached.

Is the New Washington Post Poll "Out of Whack?"

Update - According to Blair Lee with the Gazette of Business and Politics the Washington Post weights it polls according to Census data and not actual turnout - as a result the poll is overstating turnout among key constituent groups and heavily Democratic Baltimore City.

Original Post with revised analysis based on material provided by the Washington Post:

Much news has been made in the past few days since the Washington Post released a new poll in the Maryland governors race that showed incumbent Democrat Martin O'Malley opening a huge 11 point lead over former governor Bob Ehrlich. No other poll has found this race to be anything but a dead heat and news that the O'Malley campaign is bringing President Obama to the state certainly suggests that this is a close race.

When asked about the new poll, Ehrlich described it as "out of whack." In a story about Ehrlich's comments, Washington Post reporter John Wagner noted that Ehrlich did not identify any problems with the polls methodology. Having read through the data made available by the Post I can see no obvious methodological problems, but I am left wondering about the Post's turnout assumptions, like some recent polls in California I think the Post may be overstating likely Democratic turnout.

The Post does not provide a breakdown of party ID among likely voters, but polling director Jon Cohen provided that data to me today. Party ID was 50% Dem, 26% Rep, and 23% Ind. The Post data also lacks cross tabs showing the level of support for each candidate by party ID among likely voters, Cohen provided that as well - O'Malley is winning 87% of Dems, 5% of Reps, and 31% of Inds, Ehrlich wins 10% of Dems, 93% of Reps, and 54% of Inds.

This is crucial information and suggests that the Washington Post is overstating Democratic turnout and understating Republican turnout in 2010.  Consider - the 2004 Maryland turnout (a decent Republican year)was 48% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 22% Independent; the 2008 turnout numbers (an incredible Democratic year) were 51% Democrat, 28% Republican and 21% Independent.

So the Post sees a 2010 electorate that every bit as Democrat as was 2008 and less Republican than either the bad year of 2008 or the good year of 2004. In other words, in a year marked by a tremendous enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans the Post thinks that Democrats will rival their 2008 turnout and Republicans will not even be able to reach their's - this is just not a reasonable assumption.

Those differences may seem slight, but based on the cross tab data provided by Jon Cohen it is possible to model the Post's data based on a turnout dynamic like 2004 and 2008. I've done this in Tables One through Four below.

If 2004 turnout numbers are applied to the Post poll (Table One) the results become 50% O'Malley to 45% Ehrlich - a statistical tie in line with all other polls.

Using the 2008 turnout assumptions (Table Four) the results of the poll become 54% O'Malley to 44% Ehrlich - essentially the margin reported by the Post. This leads me to believe that the Post is assuming/modeling a turnout dynamic similar to 2008 - and that seems highly unlikely in the current political environment. This primary season has been marked by historic levels of GOP voter turnout and in key races in VA, NJ, and MA Democratic turnout was well off of the 2008 levels while GOP turnout was steady.

For these reasons I would argue that 2004 is a much more likely scenario - and that would make this a 4 point race and within the margin of error.

The Post poll also found that Ehrlich is winning just 10% of Democrats. That seems low, in the Democratic primary just two weeks ago fully 14% of Democrats voted against O'Malley and for two unknown candidates.  If one assumes that Ehrlich wins 14% of Democrats (a number well below the roughly 22% he won in 2002 and the 15% he won in 2006) the poll results become 51% to 49% (Table Three).

Of course, if Ehrlich did receive 20% of the Democratic vote and the turnout is like 2004 then he's ahead 52% to 48% (Table Five). Even using a 2008 dynamic the race would be tied at 50% to 50% (Table Six).

In short, I suspect that the Washington Post poll actually confirms that the race between Martin O'Malley and Bob Ehrlich is a toss-up. I don't think that the poll is "out of whack" I just think that their turnout assumptions are wrong. Jon Cohen explained to me that the post weights "our adult sample to information we have good reason to believe is true, not an estimate about what a future population (voters might look like." That is of course their right, but it makes far more sense to base turn-out on actual past turnout numbers and not on a simple breakdown of the adult population - in other words a model should be based on actual voters not just all people.

I'd like to thank John Wagner and Jon Cohen for being so willing to speak with me about the poll and for being so accessible.

Stay tuned....

In Maryland, O'Malley Hits the the Big 5-0

Democratic turnout on primary day may not have held much good news for Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, but the latest survey from Rasmussen Reports finds O'Malley in new territory - at the 50% mark. This marks the first time since former Governor Robert Ehrlich entered the race that O'Malley has seen his reelect number reach 50%. Since February, O'Malley's level of support has ranged from 49% to 45% and now to 50%. Ehrlich's support has ranged from a low of 43% to it's present high watermark of 47%.

The poll also finds O'Malley with a 51% approval rating - one of the few polls to find a positive approval rating for the Governor. In all, the poll offers considerable good news for O'Malley. His reelect number and his approval rating are each hovering at the 50% mark and very few Marylanders describe themselves as being "undecided."

The poll results offer further evidence that the race will be close, but Ehrlich needs to win over the few remaining undecideds and hope for better turn-out to win this race and last week's primary clearly indicated an enthusiasm gap in Maryland.

Ehrlich Beats Back Tea Party, O'Malley Gets the "Fustero Treatment"

The big news in Maryland so far has got to be the size of Bob Ehrlich's victory over Tea Party and Sarah Palin favorite Brian Murphy. On a night when conservative insurgents scored a dramatic victory in Delaware and battled to a near tie in New Hampshire Bob Ehrlich defeated Brian Murphy 76% to 24%.

On the other side of the ballot, Martin O'Malley has to deal with the unexpected embarassment of losing 14% of the vote to two unknowns with 10% going to J.P. Cusick, a candidate whose entire campaign is based on reforming child support and custody laws. This is like Kathleen Kennedy Townsend losing 20% of the vote to grocery store clerk Robert Fustero in 2002.

Winning 76% to 24% against a known and financed candidate in a year of upsets is far more impressive than winning 86% to 14% over two unknowns with no campaign organization of which to speak.

Worse, the ratio of Democratic turnout compared to Republican turnout is lower than in any recent election and thus far O'Malley is on track to underperform compared to his own performance of 500,000 votes in 2006 and to finish roughly on par with Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's 400,000 in 2002. Though Ehrlich received only 76% of the GOP vote he is on track to receive roughly that same number of votes as 2002 and 2006.

Interesting Turnout Dynamics in Maryland

In 2002, when neither Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend nor Republican Bob Ehrlich faced serious primary threats Townsend received roughly 400,000 votes to Ehrlich's 200,000 - a 2 to 1 margin that closely matched the Democrats' registration advantage. Roughly 100,000 Democrats opted to vote against Townsend in the primary. So there was a 2.5 to 1 turnout advantage among Democrats, but 20% lodged a protest vote against Townsend and she went on to lose the general election.

In 2006, neither Ehrlich or Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley faced any primary challenge. O'Malley received 500,000 votes to Ehrlich's 200,000 - essentially the same 2.5 to 1 turnout in 2002, but the Democratic vote was unified.

In 2010, O'Malley faced no serious challenge and Ehrlich did. So far, there have been 411,000 Democratic votes cast and 255,000 Republican votes. Ehrlich has claimed 76% or 195,000. O'Malley has received 86% or 354,000. Three things stands out - 1) Democratic turnout is barely 1.6 to 1 over Republican, an incredibly low ratio, 2) O'Malley's advantage over Ehrlich is thus less than Townsend's over Ehrlich in 2002, and 3) 14% of Democratic voters have lodged a protest vote against O'Malley.

If these ratios hold then tonight will be a bad night for Martin O'Malley and perhaps indicative of a rough general election to come.

In the 5th Congressional District, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's district, Republicans have nominated newcomer Charles Lollar. In 2008 there were 110,000 Democratic votes cast in the primary and only 28,000 Republican votes - 3.5 to one in a district that is 2 to 1 Democrat. Hoyer won in 2008 75% to 25%. Tonight, there have been 53,000 Democratic votes so far to 25,000 Republican votes - about 2 to 1.  This suggests that even Hoyer may have a race on his hands - though odds are still very much in his favor.

In Maryland the Only Surprise is the Lack of Surprises

With early returns in the AP has called the gubernatorial races for Martin O'Malley and Robert Ehrlich. In the end, insurgent Republican Brian Murphy fizzled. Ehrlich carried 78% of vote in early returns - simply trouncing Murphy. Any suggestions that the result indicates a weakness for Ehrlich are simply wrong. Murphy was a reasonably well financed candidate with a strong organization, and Tea Party backing - Murphy should have cracked 25% or more. Look across the border in Delaware where Christine O'Donnell toppled establishment Republican Mike Castle in that state's Senate primary and you see how well insurgent Republicans are doing this year. Murphy underperformed...

In other news - Republican Andy Harris easily won the nomination for a rematch against Frank Kratovil in the 1st Congressional District and political newcomer Charles Lollar appears destined to challenge Majority Leader Steny Hoyer in Maryland's 5th Congressional District.

In Maryland, Comparing Ehrlich/Murphy to Townsend/ Fustero is Ridiculous

A new poll conducted by Center Maryland/OpinionWorks found what most analysts had long expected - that former Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich is in no danger of losing the GOP nomination to newcomer Brian Murphy. The survey of 600 likely General Election voters (and a much smaller sample of 170 Rebublicans) found that Ehrlich leads Murphy 75% to 13% with only 11% undecided.

The poll is devastating news for the Murphy campaign. It shows that after two weeks of generally positive news, a high profile interview on a national cable news station, multiple interviews on statewide television, talk radio, and newspapers- all the result of a surprise endorsement by Sarah Palin - Murphy has barely topped 10%. One cannot help but wonder - how low was his support before the last two weeks?

Center Maryland is to be commended for conducting this poll, it fills a much needed void in the Maryland race, but the write-up on the poll contained a very poor analogy.  It their write-up, Center Maryland states

But with 11 percent of likely Republican primary voters still undecided, it’s possible that Murphy could break through Maryland’s “Fustero line” – the 20 percent threshold that political observers suggest might represent a weakness in Ehrlich’s hold over his party base.
For many political observers, the performance of established gubernatorial candidates in primary elections against unknown or relatively unknown challengers marks an opportunity to assess how well those candidates will hold their base in general elections. Eight years ago, when then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend lost 20 percent of the Democratic primary vote to an unknown retired grocery clerk named Robert Fustero, many analysts quickly suggested that she was having trouble energizing core Democratic constituencies. Townsend ultimately lost to Ehrlich two months later. Similar questions might be raised about Ehrlich if Murphy were to exceed 20 percent of the vote in the September Republican primary.

This is simply a ridiculous analogy and no serious observer of Maryland politics should ever compare the Ehrlich/Murphy race to the Townsend/Fustero primary. In 2002, the campaign of Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was deeply embarrassed when David Fustero managed to win 20% of the primary vote. Fustero had no organized campaign of which to speak, virtually no money, and was all but ignored by the press. As the primary approached he was campaigning via letters to the editor. Fustero had spent less than $1,000 on his candidacy, compared to Townsend's $2.3 million. Fustero should not have received 5% of the vote, let alone 20%. It's safe to say that few who voted for Fustero had ever seen his name before reading it on the ballot - it was a pure protest vote against Townsend.

Murphy, on the other had, is an organized and reasonably well funded candidate. He has respectable name recognition, has run a rather good insurgent campaign and he's received plenty of press coverage. He has also raised over $200,000 and spent $170,000 on his campaign. It may well be much less than the $1.3 million that Ehrlich has spent, but there is a sizable difference between $1,000 and $170,000.

The question should not be whether breaking the "Fustero Line" of 20% indicates weakness by Ehrlich, the real question should be how is Murphy not doing any better than 13%? Reaching 20% on primary day will not signal dissatisfaction with Ehrlich, rather it would mark a low bar of achievement for Murphy's campaign. Spinning it any other way is just nonsense.

Poll: Maryland Voters Seem Comfortable with O'Malley and Ehrlich

A new poll confirms that the race for governor in Maryland continues to be tight. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Martin O'Malley and Bob Ehrlich tied at 47% to 47%. The race has been tied all summer and nothing much has changed.  Recent campaign fundraising reports show that Martin O'Malley has a $4.7 million cash advantage over Ehrlich - and these numbers suggest that O'Malley will need that advantage to turn out the vote. Ehrlich needs to use these numbers to convince potential donors that he can in fact win this race - so long as he has the money to compete.

There are several truly interesting findings in the latest poll and as always they offer areas of hope and concern for both campaigns. An equal share of voters consider each candidate to be "mainstream." This should worry team O'Malley - in a state that is 2 to 1 Democrat one would expect voters to see the Republican as less mainstream. Likewise, the candidates have equal favorability ratings. The O'Malley camp wants to convince voters that the Ehrlich years were not good for the state - but this finding suggests that voters have a rather positive recollection of Ehrlich's tenure.

Likewise, 77% of respondents describe Ehrlich as Somewhat or Very Conservative. For O'Malley, 25% describe him as Moderate and 55% describe him as Somewhat or Very Liberal. These numbers tell us something important about the Maryland electorate - commentators obsess over the Democrats' 2 to 1 voter registration advantage in the state portraying Democratic voters as a monolithic group. This is simply wrong. While the Democratic Party in much of the nation has slowly purged itself of the social conservatives who once called it home there is still a strong element of those old school Democrats in Maryland - call them "Boll Weevils" or "Blue Dogs" they are Democrats by tradition, even though the party is no longer aligned with many of their core beliefs. This is why Republicans win in counties where registered Democrats outnumber them. In only 7 of Maryland's 24 counties (Baltimore City is, in effect, a county) do Republicans hold an advantage - and it's often a slim one (Harford only recently switched from plurality Democrat to plurality Republican). Yet Ehrlich carried 21 counties in 2002 and 20 counties in 2006.

A look at Maryland's Senate makes that clear - the sea of red are legislative districts represented in the state Senate by Republicans - yet most of the counties included in these districts are majority Democrat.

O'Malley should should be a bit concerned that he is tied with a candidate that 3/4 of Marylanders consider to be Somewhat or Very Conservative - it may suggest that that many voters like that about Ehrlich - or that in 2010 many voters are looking for a conservative candidate.

O'Malley can take heart in the fact that his job approval rating has finally topped 50% - reaching 54% in this poll. President Obama has a 56% approval rating, so the president is unlikely to be a drag on the O'Malley ticket.

All things considered, I would give an edge to Bob Ehrlich based on the favorability and mainstream ratings, but mostly based on the last two questions in the survey:

9* Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

•  1% Excellent
• 7% Good
• 37% Fair
• 55% Poor
• 1% Not sure

10* Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse?

• 31% Better
• 41% Worse
• 23% About the same
• 4% Not Sure

I would not want to be associated with the party in power heading into an election in which 55% of potential voters rate the economy as poor and 41% say it is getting worse. That's a strong tide for O'Malley to fight.

If Ehrlich can get his fundraising in order this may well become his race to lose.

* Image courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com

Is Ehrlich Debate Challenge a Smoke Screen?

Update III: And now it makes sense - Ehrlich raised $3.2 million, but only has $2 million in the bank. So O'Malley has a tremendous cash advantage. No wonder Ehrlich wanted to change the story.

Update II: The Ehrlich camp is reporting that they raised $3.2 million - essentially on par with what the O'Malley camp raised during the same period. There is no doubt that O'Malley will have raise more cash - in total - but Ehrlich will have more than enough to run a competitive race. I'm not sure why they waited until Friday to release this data.  I assume that they worried about comparisons between Ehrlich's cash on hand and O'Malley's. 

Update: Julie Bykowicz is reporting at the Baltimore Sun that team Ehrlich is going to wait until tomorrow to release their numbers. To me, this is further evidence that the numbers will be weak and the debate challenge was a smoke screen. It is a tried and true tactic in politics to issue bad or otherwise unflattering news on a Friday so that it will be lost in a weekend full family activities and other real life distractions.

Seemingly out of the blue, and one month before the nominating primary, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Ehrlich has issued a pretty detailed debate challenge to his likely Democratic opponent, Governor Martin O'Malley.

The general election is 3 months away and the race is pretty much tied - why issue a debate challenge now?  Call be suspicious but I have to wonder if Ehrlich is trying to change the storyline and there are three possible stories that he's trying to quash:

1. He wants people to stop talking about Brian Murphy. His rival for the GOP nomination has been receiving a great deal of free press following his surprise endorsement from Sarah Palin. Murphy has been all over the pages of the Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun and has landed interviews on local TV and radio as well as the Fox Business channel.
2. O'Malley just announced that he has a campaign war chest loaded with $6.7 million - a hefty sum heading into the campaign and a number that may dampen enthusiasm among Ehrlich supporters.
3. Speaking of fundraising, Ehrlich still has not released his current fundraising totals. O'Malley released his yesterday (so that he could brag about the impressive haul) but the Ehrlich camp seems to be waiting. I find it odd that they would issue a debate challenge on the same day they intend to release their fundraising totals - unless those totals are less than impressive. Ehrlich wanted to raise $3 million, if he came in under that number the press spin would be very negative and it would make Ehrlich appear weak against the fundraising prowess of O'Malley.

I suspect Ehrlich issued the debate challenge to grab back some headlines, but wait until his campaign releases their fundraising totals. If those numbers are below $3 million, then we'll know exactly why he issued the challenge - distraction.

With Palin Endorsement is Murphy a "Mama Grizzly"?

Sarah Palin waded into Maryland politics last week when she released a short statement endorsing Brian Murphy in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Palin said Murphy is "a pro-life, pro-second amendment, commonsense conservative and a firm believer in the free market and the cause for energy independence. Brian has the private sector experience that is so lacking in government today. He knows how to incentivize industry to get our economy moving again." Murphy, a little known 33 year old, is fighting an uphill battle against the well known and well financed former governor Robert Ehrlich.

Though some are quick to dismiss the impact of Palin's endorsement, it is worth noting that Palin's track record so far this election cycle has been pretty good. And for Murphy, the endorsement provided two things that he desperately needed - free advertising and better name recognition. CNN,the New York Times, the Baltimore Sun, and the Washington Post have all committed new ink to the Murphy campaign. Murphy even landed an interview on the Fox Business channel and the endorsement was covered by all the local news stations. In the near term, this endorsement will help Murphy, but it is unlikely that Palin will come to the state and campaign for him and equally unlikely that there will be a long term effect.

As for the impact of her endorsement on Robert Ehrlich's campaign - I think that Tom Schaller got it mostly right in the Baltimore Sun: "Mr. Ehrlich said the snub didn't matter, but he knows better and ought to be giddy. Ms. Palin would have done far more harm to his candidacy by endorsing him, and if anything she gave Mr. Ehrlich the opportunity to polish his preferred image as a non-ideological pragmatist."

Come the general election, Governor Martin O'Malley will likely claim that Bob Ehrlich is a dangerous, right-wing conservative, out of step with Maryland voters. Ehrlich can respond by reminding voters (the majority of whom will be Democrats) that he was too moderate for Sarah Palin.

Liberal commentators like Schaller are too quick to dismiss Palin and her impact on politics - this is a mistake. Palin has had a tremendous effect on national politics since being plucked from obscurity in 2008. But her brand of conservatism is simply a poor fit with Maryland, a state that has sent only three Republican governors to Annapolis since 1950 and each - Theodore McKeldin, Spiro "Ted" Agnew, and Ehrlich - was a moderate Republican with significant bi-partisan appeal (yes, even Agnew). Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 2 to 1 margin in Maryland and although many Maryland Democrats are of the conservative "Blue Dog" variety they are not Republicans. Any statewide Republican candidate needs to win about 25% of the Democratic vote - an endorsement from Sarah Palin is not an effective strategy to achieve that mark.

Brian Murphy should enjoy the exposure that Palin's endorsement has afforded him, and his time in Maryland politics may yet come, but not this year and not in this race. In the end, Palin's endorsement of Murphy will have roughly the same impact on the campaign as the economic stimulus bill signed by President Obama last year had on the economy - the effect will near-term, limited, and mostly inconsequential - other than to boost the political fortunes of his opponents.