About the Hogan Poll Showing Him Ahead by 5 Points....

I have no idea how the MD gubernatorial race between Republican Larry Hogan and Anthony Brown will end, but the race appears to be very close. The Cook Political Report recently classified the contest as a tossup.  The Hogan camp caused a stir this past week by releasing an internal campaign poll that showed Hogan beating Brown 44-39%. Right away I was suspicious - a dead dog with a D after its name on the ballot would draw more than 39% in Maryland -right? So I contacted the Hogan campaign and convinced them to share all of the internals of the poll including questions asked and demographics of the sample and voting coalitions. Try as I might I could not find a flaw in the methodology or the questions. The sample size is a bit small so the error margin is a bit larger than usual. But if you consider the succession of polls from the Washington Post, to the Baltimore Sun, to Gonzales Research Marketing, and now to the Hogan poll there has been movement toward Hogan. Also, the three debates were good for Hogan. The first two were a tie, but Hogan won big in the third debate. Contrary to the dangerous candidate Brown accused Hogan of being, voters saw a candidate who was about as extreme as a vanilla milkshake.

The poll appeared to have a proper sample. It assumed an electorate that was 55% Democrats, 26% Republicans, and 19% Independents. Some have argued this is a bad sample as Democrats were 62% of the early voters and Independents were only 10% - wrong. Early voting attracts partisans eager to vote, but early voting is not a predictor of overall turnout.  In 2010, Democrats were 57% of the electorate and they have lost registration ground since then.

The Brown campaign has tried to downplay the poll, pointing to the 2 to 1 early vote Democratic turnout advantage last week. Problem is, that advantage was 3 to 1 in 2010. So Democrats are doing worse this election cycle than in 2012.  Of course in 2010 O'Malley crushed Ehrlich by a 14 point margin - so Democrats can lose some ground and still deliver for Brown. Then again, Ehrlich ran a horrible campaign in 2010 and surrendered votes a better GOP candidate would've won. This time around it's Brown who is running a bad campaign. As noted by Heather Mizeur, Brown's campaign has been relentlessly negative and, as described by the Baltimore Sun, "strikingly dishonest." Who knows how all of that will shake out.

The sample also assumed an electorate that would be 29% African American - essentially what it was in 2012. Based on weak primary turnout in PG County and Baltimore City, the final share may be lower than 29%. The poll found Hogan beating Brown 3 to 1 among white voters, but Hogan was only attracting 13% of the African American vote. Hogan was winning Independents by 2 to 1 and was receiving a 25% of the Democratic vote. The numbers all made sense. There were many undecideds and the poll pointed to a lot of unease with Brown.

And the most interesting aspect of the poll, to me, were the questions asking "How much have you seen, read, or heard recently about Anthony Brown/Larry Hogan and his campaign for Governor?" Then folks were asked "would you say you have a MUCH (more/less) favorable impression of him?" Now 2/3 of respondents said they learned some or a lot about Hogan during the campaign and by a 55-32% margin, what they learned made them feel more favorable toward him. But 3/4 indicated learning some or a lot about Brown and by 34-48% margin what the learned made them feel less favorable toward him.
It suggests Brown's negative campaign has backfired.

Is the poll a fluke? A bad sample? We'll find out Tuesday. But the findings certainly help to explain all of the high profile visitors like the Clintons and Obamas trying to rally support. The finding also help explain the recent mailing by the MD Democratic party that attempted to link the election to the incident in Ferguson, MO. The poll found Brown receiving 60% of the African-American vote. Hogan was at 13%. So 27% of African-Americans were undecided a week before an election where Brown could become the state's first African-American governor. You have wonder, if Brown can't count on the overwhelming support of the Democratic party's most loyal voters then how many other normally Democratic voters are equally ambivalent about him?

As a political scientist, I'm trained to predict the the future based observation of the past. As such, I have to believe that Brown is likely to win this race. Democrats have tremendous structural advantages in the state and come Tuesday we could see Hogan win by 3 or lose by 10. But it is becoming easier to see Hogan's path to victory. Though it's still hard to see how Hogan could be 5 points up in a state that has only elected two GOP governors in the last 45 years. It's hard as well to accept that Brown could be doing worse than Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. But this poll reveals real trouble for Brown. And he may well find himself the second MD heir apparent to have stumbled on his way to the coronation.

Tuesday will tell the tale.

 

Democratic Support Understated Due to Cell Phones? Not So Fast.

Over at Polising.com (and linked at Politicalwire.com), Jonathan Singer notes that the new McClatchy Poll finds Democrats in a much stronger position on the generic ballot and he thinks he knows why “The Democrats' strength among registered voters comes directly from the cell-only population... This data buttresses the findings published earlier this month by Pew that if pollsters are skipping cell-only voters -- exactly the type of voters who are more likely to vote Democratic -- their results may simply be too favorable for the GOP."

The problem is, pollsters are not excluding cell phone users. Pollster.com's Marc Blumenthal addressed this issue in a recent posting "At the national level, many organizations now routinely sample and call both landline and mobile phones. These include, in addition to the Pew Center, ABC News/Washington Post, AP/GfK, CBS News/New York Times, Gallup (both their daily tracking and the surveys in partnership with USA Today), Kaiser Family Foundation, McClatchy/Marist University, NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Newsweek."

Gallup, the most widely cited generic ballot pollster, has been including cell phones since 2008 and according their website "Gallup includes cell phones in each national Gallup poll. Further, cell phone-only households are now as likely to fall into national Gallup polls samples as those living in traditional landline households." Roughly 20% of households are cell phone only - and they are included in these national surveys.

If one looks at the recent polls at Realclearpolitics.com, it's clear that McClatchy is an outlier - I would advise against pinning Democratic hopes on some unmeasured mass of committed, eager to vote cell phone users (because they are in fact being measured). Could folks like Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, and Larry Sabato be so shortsighted?

As Early Voting Ends, Numbers Suggest A Republican Victory in MD-1

Update: Early voting ended yesterday and the trends in the 1st District have held - 46.4% of ballots cast by Republicans, 42.9% by Democrats, 10.7% by Others. These numbers must be very encouraging to Harris, and probably explain why the Democratic Party is now spending money on behalf of the Libertarian candidate in the 1st District - hardly a sign of confidence.

Original Post: Maryland's 1st Congressional district is the quintessential swing district. It is 41.6% Democrat, 41.7% Republican, and 16.7% Other (mostly unaffiliated). In 2008, Democrat Frank Kratovil won against Republican Andy Harris by 2,000 votes. Kratovil is facing Harris in a rematch. Recent polls have been inconsistent with the race either tied or with Harris ahead by 4 or 11 points.

According to early voting data in Maryland, turnout has been highest in the 1st Congressional district and the numbers thus far should encourage Harris supporters. Statewide, Democratic turnout has been stronger than Republican turnout, but not in the 1st District. Republican turnout is higher and as of 10/26 Republicans have cast 46.6% of the votes, Democrats 43.4%, and Other 10%.  These numbers take on added significance given that a poll released last week by Monmouth University caused quite a stir as it showed Harris opening an 11 point lead in the race. The partisan breakdown in that poll was 46% Republican, 45% Democrat, and 9% I - so far, Republican turnout is better and Democratic turnout worse than the Monmouth sample.

In the Monmouth poll, Harris and Kratovil did equally well among their respective party's, but Harris enjoyed a 24 point lead among Independents. If I take the Monmouth poll's level of support by party ID and apply it to the early voting numbers then Harris is leading 52.4% to 47.6% - a 5 point margin. But that may understate Harris' margin. Monmouth reported both actual respondent registration as well as self-reported registration. Actual registration was the 46% R, 45% D, and 9% I - but self reported ID was 39% R, 33%D and 28% I - meaning far more Democrats are rejecting the party label than are Republicans, and, according to Monmouth, supporting Harris.

As an aside, the Baltimore Sun released a poll this week showing this race to be tied, that same poll showed that Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley had opened a 14 point lead over former Governor Bob Ehrlich. Early voting data suggests that the Harris/Kratovil race is anything but tied - one must wonder if the O'Malley/Ehrlich numbers in the Sun poll are off as well. According to the Ehrlich campaign, a poll conducted for them by Public Opinion Strategies finds the race statistically tied at 47% O'Malley to 44% Ehrlich among likely voters.

A 3 Point Race for Maryland Governor?

According to an Ehrlich campaign internal poll the race for Maryland governor is within the margin of error:

"Contrary to what The Baltimore Sun and Washington Post want you to believe, this race is extremely close. A survey commissioned by the Ehrlich campaign shows that as of yesterday, the campaign for governor was statistically tied among those most likely to vote. That’s right: 47 percent of the most likely voters support O’Malley and 44 percent support Bob Ehrlich, with a margin of error of 4 percent."

The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, the same firm that polled for candidate Ehrlich in 2002. Public Opinion Strategies is a well respected polling firm that polls for NPR, NBC, and the Wall Street Journal.

I have requested additional details on the poll and will post more if I receive those details, but this result seems far more realistic than the 14 point race suggested by recent Washington Post and Baltimore Sun polls and would explain why the O'Malley campaign has been bringing heavy hitters like President Obama and former President Clinton to the state. If this were a 14 point race, or even a 10 point race, Obama and Clinton would be spending time elsewhere.

In Maryland: Two Polls, Two Very Different Findings, but the Same Results?

Two polls in as many days suggest that Martin O'Malley has opened a formidable 14 point lead over former governor Bob Ehrlich - the Baltimore Sun reports that O'Malley has a 52% to 38% lead over Bob Ehrlich. The next day the Washington Post reported an O'Malley lead of 54% to 40%. Reporters from both papers seemed less than convinced by the poll results, but took comfort in the seemingly similar results - two polls, two papers, two pollsters - a 14 point lead.

In reality, the polls are quite different. Consider:

The Washington Post sees an likely voter electorate that is 59% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 11% Independent or other. The Sun poll is 57%, 30%, and 13% - not much difference, but both likely overstate Democratic turnout.

Things get a little weird when you dig a bit deeper into the cross tabs- the Post reports that Ehrlich wins Republicans by a 92% to 6% margin and wins Independents 52% -36% - he also receives only 7% of the Democratic vote. In the Sun poll, Ehrlich is doing poorly among Republicans winning 78% to O'Malley's 12% (the rest are undecided). The Sun also reports that Ehrlich is losing among Independents 37% to O'Malley's 52% - a mirror image of the Post poll. Finally, Ehrlich wins 18% of Democrats to O'Malley's 72%. The Sun also finds Ehrlich losing among men, 43% to 48% and women, 34% to 55% - in the Post Ehrlich is winning men 48% to 46%, and losing women by 62% to 33%.

So, compared to the Post, the Sun finds Ehrlich doing far worse among Republicans, losing considerably among Independents, but faring much better among Democrats- yet the topline margins are the same 14 points. So how do they arrive at the 14 point margin?  The Sun assumes a higher turnout among Independents than does the Post, but has O'Malley winning them. The Post has Ehrlich doing well among Independents, but horribly among Democrats and over states Democratic turnout.

When I take the various results and turn them into more likely turnout and support assumptions - 56% Democratic, 31% Republican, 13% Independent - and assume, realistically, that Ehrlich wins Independents and Republicans by the margin in the Post, and Democrats by the margin in the Sun then this becomes a 6 point race - 53% to 47%, advantage O'Malley. I think that's about where this race is - and the Sun and the Post should resist using the other's polls to assuage doubts about each poll based on the significant differences evident in the cross-tabs. There can be no question, however, that Ehrlich is clearly behind and by more than just a few points.

As Expected, a Closer Race in Maryland

A new poll from Maryland's best pollster, Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies, shows the O'Malley/Ehrlich contest to be a 4.5 point race - 46.9% to 42.4%. This makes much more sense than other polls that have shown a much larger O'Malley lead. Ehrlich has had a serious problem breaking the mid-40s barrier in most polls. O'Malley's approval is below 50% (where it's always been) but probably close enough to 50% in this Democratic state.

The poll makes reasonable turnout assumptions and though it shows Ehrlich within 5 points it also suggests that Ehrlich will have a tough time winning the state. It is the first poll since Ehrlich began a new round of advertising and it reflects some post debate samples.

In general, the poll shows that Ehrlich needs to boost his numbers among Democrats and in the Baltimore suburbs. O'Malley enjoys a tremendous lead in the Wasington suburbs.

In Maryland, Can Ehrlich Halt the Slide?

Though I stand by my recent critique of the Washington Post poll that showed Martin O'Malley with an 11 point lead over Bob Ehrlich, the latest statewide survey from Rasmussen Reports shows that Ehrlich has clearly lost momentum in the race. I believe the reason is O'Malley's aggressive and effective advertising campaign. Every morning as parents are getting their kids ready for school or daycare or otherwise prepping for the day they are treated to a number of positive ads touting O'Malley's support for education funding and even more hard hitting negative ads linking Bob Ehrlich to corporate interest and, brazenly, attacking Ehrlich for tax and fee increases during his tenure and for a 72% electricity rate hike by BGE.



O'Malley could be called to the mat on many of these issues, but especially on the issue of tax increases and the BG&E rate hikes.  On taxes, it is astonishing that O'Malley has chosen to run against Ehrlich on that issue. Though Ehrlich did preside over increases in titling fees, a new flush tax for the Bay, and a small property tax increase, O'Malley called a special session of the General Assembly in 2007 and substantially increased the state sales tax and the income tax. But the ads and claims have gone largely unanswered. With regard to BG&E, Ehrlich inherited a rate increase that resulted from poorly crafted legislation. The General Assembly had imposed a multi-year rate freeze on BG&E and that freeze expired in 2006. BG&E responded by raising rates to market levels. During the 2006 campaign, Martin O'Malley pledged to "take on" BG&E and halt the rate increases - even running campaign ads based on the pledge.



In the end, however, for all of the sound and fury the BG&E rate hike went into effect under Martin O'Malley's newly elected administration. The Ehrlich campaign has produced a video refuting the BG&E claims by O'Malley - but good luck ever seeing the ad on TV.



O'Malley clearly enjoys a cash advantage in this race and he has used that advantage to run a very effective ad campaign that has driven Bob Ehrlich's negatives higher. Everyone knew this would be a race decided by 4 points here or there and the O'Malley team knew that they just needed to raise doubts in the minds of the small group of undecided voters. Recent surveys suggest that they have done just that. The question now is whether the Ehrlich campaign has the time and the resources to effectively counter the O'Malley machine. They have to hope that it's not already too late.

The candidates have agreed to two debates so far, the first of which will air on Oct. 11. Ehrlich needs to bring his best game and appeared passionate and engaged. He needs to remind voters of his recently released Roadmap 2020 and enunciate a clear vision for the state - something he failed to do in 2006. If he fails to do that, he may not be able to recover. O'Malley tends not to connect well with voters in formal events and he needs to avoid sounding rehearsed or detached.

Is the New Washington Post Poll "Out of Whack?"

Update - According to Blair Lee with the Gazette of Business and Politics the Washington Post weights it polls according to Census data and not actual turnout - as a result the poll is overstating turnout among key constituent groups and heavily Democratic Baltimore City.

Original Post with revised analysis based on material provided by the Washington Post:

Much news has been made in the past few days since the Washington Post released a new poll in the Maryland governors race that showed incumbent Democrat Martin O'Malley opening a huge 11 point lead over former governor Bob Ehrlich. No other poll has found this race to be anything but a dead heat and news that the O'Malley campaign is bringing President Obama to the state certainly suggests that this is a close race.

When asked about the new poll, Ehrlich described it as "out of whack." In a story about Ehrlich's comments, Washington Post reporter John Wagner noted that Ehrlich did not identify any problems with the polls methodology. Having read through the data made available by the Post I can see no obvious methodological problems, but I am left wondering about the Post's turnout assumptions, like some recent polls in California I think the Post may be overstating likely Democratic turnout.

The Post does not provide a breakdown of party ID among likely voters, but polling director Jon Cohen provided that data to me today. Party ID was 50% Dem, 26% Rep, and 23% Ind. The Post data also lacks cross tabs showing the level of support for each candidate by party ID among likely voters, Cohen provided that as well - O'Malley is winning 87% of Dems, 5% of Reps, and 31% of Inds, Ehrlich wins 10% of Dems, 93% of Reps, and 54% of Inds.

This is crucial information and suggests that the Washington Post is overstating Democratic turnout and understating Republican turnout in 2010.  Consider - the 2004 Maryland turnout (a decent Republican year)was 48% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 22% Independent; the 2008 turnout numbers (an incredible Democratic year) were 51% Democrat, 28% Republican and 21% Independent.

So the Post sees a 2010 electorate that every bit as Democrat as was 2008 and less Republican than either the bad year of 2008 or the good year of 2004. In other words, in a year marked by a tremendous enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans the Post thinks that Democrats will rival their 2008 turnout and Republicans will not even be able to reach their's - this is just not a reasonable assumption.

Those differences may seem slight, but based on the cross tab data provided by Jon Cohen it is possible to model the Post's data based on a turnout dynamic like 2004 and 2008. I've done this in Tables One through Four below.

If 2004 turnout numbers are applied to the Post poll (Table One) the results become 50% O'Malley to 45% Ehrlich - a statistical tie in line with all other polls.

Using the 2008 turnout assumptions (Table Four) the results of the poll become 54% O'Malley to 44% Ehrlich - essentially the margin reported by the Post. This leads me to believe that the Post is assuming/modeling a turnout dynamic similar to 2008 - and that seems highly unlikely in the current political environment. This primary season has been marked by historic levels of GOP voter turnout and in key races in VA, NJ, and MA Democratic turnout was well off of the 2008 levels while GOP turnout was steady.

For these reasons I would argue that 2004 is a much more likely scenario - and that would make this a 4 point race and within the margin of error.

The Post poll also found that Ehrlich is winning just 10% of Democrats. That seems low, in the Democratic primary just two weeks ago fully 14% of Democrats voted against O'Malley and for two unknown candidates.  If one assumes that Ehrlich wins 14% of Democrats (a number well below the roughly 22% he won in 2002 and the 15% he won in 2006) the poll results become 51% to 49% (Table Three).

Of course, if Ehrlich did receive 20% of the Democratic vote and the turnout is like 2004 then he's ahead 52% to 48% (Table Five). Even using a 2008 dynamic the race would be tied at 50% to 50% (Table Six).

In short, I suspect that the Washington Post poll actually confirms that the race between Martin O'Malley and Bob Ehrlich is a toss-up. I don't think that the poll is "out of whack" I just think that their turnout assumptions are wrong. Jon Cohen explained to me that the post weights "our adult sample to information we have good reason to believe is true, not an estimate about what a future population (voters might look like." That is of course their right, but it makes far more sense to base turn-out on actual past turnout numbers and not on a simple breakdown of the adult population - in other words a model should be based on actual voters not just all people.

I'd like to thank John Wagner and Jon Cohen for being so willing to speak with me about the poll and for being so accessible.

Stay tuned....

In Maryland, Comparing Ehrlich/Murphy to Townsend/ Fustero is Ridiculous

A new poll conducted by Center Maryland/OpinionWorks found what most analysts had long expected - that former Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich is in no danger of losing the GOP nomination to newcomer Brian Murphy. The survey of 600 likely General Election voters (and a much smaller sample of 170 Rebublicans) found that Ehrlich leads Murphy 75% to 13% with only 11% undecided.

The poll is devastating news for the Murphy campaign. It shows that after two weeks of generally positive news, a high profile interview on a national cable news station, multiple interviews on statewide television, talk radio, and newspapers- all the result of a surprise endorsement by Sarah Palin - Murphy has barely topped 10%. One cannot help but wonder - how low was his support before the last two weeks?

Center Maryland is to be commended for conducting this poll, it fills a much needed void in the Maryland race, but the write-up on the poll contained a very poor analogy.  It their write-up, Center Maryland states

But with 11 percent of likely Republican primary voters still undecided, it’s possible that Murphy could break through Maryland’s “Fustero line” – the 20 percent threshold that political observers suggest might represent a weakness in Ehrlich’s hold over his party base.
For many political observers, the performance of established gubernatorial candidates in primary elections against unknown or relatively unknown challengers marks an opportunity to assess how well those candidates will hold their base in general elections. Eight years ago, when then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend lost 20 percent of the Democratic primary vote to an unknown retired grocery clerk named Robert Fustero, many analysts quickly suggested that she was having trouble energizing core Democratic constituencies. Townsend ultimately lost to Ehrlich two months later. Similar questions might be raised about Ehrlich if Murphy were to exceed 20 percent of the vote in the September Republican primary.

This is simply a ridiculous analogy and no serious observer of Maryland politics should ever compare the Ehrlich/Murphy race to the Townsend/Fustero primary. In 2002, the campaign of Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was deeply embarrassed when David Fustero managed to win 20% of the primary vote. Fustero had no organized campaign of which to speak, virtually no money, and was all but ignored by the press. As the primary approached he was campaigning via letters to the editor. Fustero had spent less than $1,000 on his candidacy, compared to Townsend's $2.3 million. Fustero should not have received 5% of the vote, let alone 20%. It's safe to say that few who voted for Fustero had ever seen his name before reading it on the ballot - it was a pure protest vote against Townsend.

Murphy, on the other had, is an organized and reasonably well funded candidate. He has respectable name recognition, has run a rather good insurgent campaign and he's received plenty of press coverage. He has also raised over $200,000 and spent $170,000 on his campaign. It may well be much less than the $1.3 million that Ehrlich has spent, but there is a sizable difference between $1,000 and $170,000.

The question should not be whether breaking the "Fustero Line" of 20% indicates weakness by Ehrlich, the real question should be how is Murphy not doing any better than 13%? Reaching 20% on primary day will not signal dissatisfaction with Ehrlich, rather it would mark a low bar of achievement for Murphy's campaign. Spinning it any other way is just nonsense.

Poll: Maryland Voters Seem Comfortable with O'Malley and Ehrlich

A new poll confirms that the race for governor in Maryland continues to be tight. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Martin O'Malley and Bob Ehrlich tied at 47% to 47%. The race has been tied all summer and nothing much has changed.  Recent campaign fundraising reports show that Martin O'Malley has a $4.7 million cash advantage over Ehrlich - and these numbers suggest that O'Malley will need that advantage to turn out the vote. Ehrlich needs to use these numbers to convince potential donors that he can in fact win this race - so long as he has the money to compete.

There are several truly interesting findings in the latest poll and as always they offer areas of hope and concern for both campaigns. An equal share of voters consider each candidate to be "mainstream." This should worry team O'Malley - in a state that is 2 to 1 Democrat one would expect voters to see the Republican as less mainstream. Likewise, the candidates have equal favorability ratings. The O'Malley camp wants to convince voters that the Ehrlich years were not good for the state - but this finding suggests that voters have a rather positive recollection of Ehrlich's tenure.

Likewise, 77% of respondents describe Ehrlich as Somewhat or Very Conservative. For O'Malley, 25% describe him as Moderate and 55% describe him as Somewhat or Very Liberal. These numbers tell us something important about the Maryland electorate - commentators obsess over the Democrats' 2 to 1 voter registration advantage in the state portraying Democratic voters as a monolithic group. This is simply wrong. While the Democratic Party in much of the nation has slowly purged itself of the social conservatives who once called it home there is still a strong element of those old school Democrats in Maryland - call them "Boll Weevils" or "Blue Dogs" they are Democrats by tradition, even though the party is no longer aligned with many of their core beliefs. This is why Republicans win in counties where registered Democrats outnumber them. In only 7 of Maryland's 24 counties (Baltimore City is, in effect, a county) do Republicans hold an advantage - and it's often a slim one (Harford only recently switched from plurality Democrat to plurality Republican). Yet Ehrlich carried 21 counties in 2002 and 20 counties in 2006.

A look at Maryland's Senate makes that clear - the sea of red are legislative districts represented in the state Senate by Republicans - yet most of the counties included in these districts are majority Democrat.

O'Malley should should be a bit concerned that he is tied with a candidate that 3/4 of Marylanders consider to be Somewhat or Very Conservative - it may suggest that that many voters like that about Ehrlich - or that in 2010 many voters are looking for a conservative candidate.

O'Malley can take heart in the fact that his job approval rating has finally topped 50% - reaching 54% in this poll. President Obama has a 56% approval rating, so the president is unlikely to be a drag on the O'Malley ticket.

All things considered, I would give an edge to Bob Ehrlich based on the favorability and mainstream ratings, but mostly based on the last two questions in the survey:

9* Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

•  1% Excellent
• 7% Good
• 37% Fair
• 55% Poor
• 1% Not sure

10* Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse?

• 31% Better
• 41% Worse
• 23% About the same
• 4% Not Sure

I would not want to be associated with the party in power heading into an election in which 55% of potential voters rate the economy as poor and 41% say it is getting worse. That's a strong tide for O'Malley to fight.

If Ehrlich can get his fundraising in order this may well become his race to lose.

* Image courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com