After 2 days of early voting I estimated that Maryland was on track for 16% turnout. It ended up at 16.72%. Compared to the 8.33% in 2014, that’s a 100% increase in turnout. That's pretty much the same as the increase in 2016 over 2012. Based on past trends, I believe that we’re on track for overall turnout of 52% or 53%. That would be better than the abnormally low turnout level in 2014, but below 2006 and 2010.
Some folks have been comparing the increase in total early voters between 2014 and 2018. But such a comparison doesn’t actually measure turnout increases. Since 2014, the total number of registered voters in Maryland has increased by 250,000. So to calculate any change in turnout, one needs to compare the percent of registered voters who turned out in 2014 (8.33%) to the percent of early voters who turned out in 2018 (16.72%).
The fact that early vote turnout in 2018 increased by essentially the same rate as 2016 over 2012 offers a reminder that even though early voting doubled in 2016, overall turnout only increased by 5.6%. Early voting turnout is yet to be predictive of overall turnout in Maryland.
The partisan breakdown of early voting is in line with expectations based on prior elections. Democrats were 64% of early voters. This is common in early voting in Maryland. Democrats were 65% of early voters in 2016 and 62% of early voters in 2014. But once Election Day voters were included in the counts, Democrats were 56% & 57% of overall voters, respectively. In other words, Democrats vote early at a higher rate than do other voters.
Looking at the early vote totals by gender also reveals similar patterns. Women cast 57% of the early vote in 2018 as compared to 56% in 2014. Their high watermark was in 2016 when they accounted for 59% of early voters.
Competitive County Executive races appear to have driven turnout above the statewide total in Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Howard County, and Montgomery County. The contest between Jesse Colvin and Andy Harris may have helped boost turnout in the counties of the 1st Congressional District - but it's worth noting that Eastern Shore counties have traditionally outpaced the rest of the state in early voting.
Early voting turnout in Western Maryland was low - and it usually is. Baltimore City lagged behind the statewide total - and it usually does. Prince Georges County started out with lackluster turnout, but finished strong and above the statewide total. This is a promising sign for Ben Jealous because Prince Georges County is likely to offer his greatest source of voters.
Same Day voter registration was not a big hit during early voting. Out of the 661,000 early voters only 3,700 registered on-site. That's about one half of 1%. It's likely that folks were not aware of the same day registration option. I'd expect to see more people take advantage of it in the future as they become more aware - much as better awareness of early voting has led to increased turnout in successive elections.
What does all of this mean for the outcome of the governor's race between Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous? Who knows! The early voting patterns are so in line with past early voting patterns that it would be folly to read too much into them. From the very beginning of this election the polls have clearly indicated that the outcome will be determined by Democratic voters and their willingness to crossover and vote for Hogan. Polls since August have consistently shown Hogan receiving support from 30-38% of Democrats. When Hogan won in 2014 it's estimated that nearly 25% of Democrats voted for him. So Ben Jealous needs to have Democratic voters "come back home" and vote for their party. In the end, Jealous needs to hold Hogan to no more than 25% of Democrats. That's a tall order, but the last two weeks of controversy surrounding President Trump may well encourage many Democrats to cast a vote against Trump and his party.
We'll know all of the answers on Tuesday night!
