Labor Day Showdown in the Free State

This week, Governor Hogan issued an executive order mandating that the Maryland school year begin after Labor Day and end no later than June 15th. The motivation for the post Labor Day start being the desire to generate a little additional revenue from family vacations to Ocean City prior to the start of the school year. Estimates are that the revised start date could generate up to $74 million in economic activity. This is not a new issue in Maryland and multitude of other states have grappled with the Labor Day question as well. The MD General Assembly created a task force back in 2013 to study the issue and that task force recommended adopting the post Labor Day start date, but their recommendation had no authority. 

The task force report noted:

"All 24 local school system superintendents, the State Superintendent, union representatives, the Maryland Association of Boards of Education, and the Public School Superintendents’ Association of Maryland are opposed to a post-Labor Day start date."

The task force was not moved by that universal opposition, noting instead that "there was no compelling evidence that showed there was any impact on education starting post-Labor Day..." and "there was no quantifiable evidence that a post-Labor Day start is harmful to local schools systems."  

The post Labor Day start has been a favorite of Democratic Comptroller Peter Franchot and was endorsed by former Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley. But given opposition by local school systems and the Maryland State Education Association, the Maryland General Assembly was not willing to impose the mandated start date.

Maryland 2014: Part 1 - The Democrats Running for Governor

It's been awhile since I've written about the 2014 gubernatorial contest in Maryland. In a post last September, I profiled the four men most likely to seek the nomination - Attorney General Doug Gansler, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, Comptroller Peter Franchot, and Howard County Exec. Ken Ulman. I mentioned Heather Mizeur as a "rumored to be thinking about it" candidate. I argued then, that Brown was the odds on favorite to win the nomination.

"If the 2014 primary were like a typical Democratic primary in recent years with only two credible candidates then certainly Gansler would be the favorite - but in a three man race his odds drop considerably and in a 4 man race a clear new favored candidate emerges from the pack - Lt. Governor Anthony Brown."

Much has changed since September... and yet very little has changed.

Two of the expected candidates are now out of the race.  The Franchot folks always understood thy had a very narrow path to victory, it was a path that relied on moderate and conservative Democrats outside of the I-95 corridor. The Franchot team understood that if Gansler and Brown split the progressive vote, and Gansler, Brown, and Ulman divided the I-95 vote, and if Franchot could compete with Gansler in their shared home turf of Montgomery County, and if Franchot could win over Democrats from parts of the state that feel ignored by the Democratic party, then Franchot could build an electoral plurality in a multicandidate race. It was a path to victory that needed every "and if" to fall into place. In the end, Franchot decided that he enjoyed being Comptroller too much to risk everything on a series of and ifs. It was probably the correct call. I had written and spoken favorably of Franchot and make no secret of the fact that he would have been my preferred candidate. He openly and passionately challenged the Democratic party status quo in the state and would have been the candidate most likely to embrace the types of good government reforms so desperately needed in Annapolis.

As for Ken Ulman, there had been rumblings for some time that the Brown campaign was working feverishly behind the scenes to get Ulman on board as Brown's running mate. Those rumblings turned out to be true and the Brown/Ulman team have been traveling the state fundraising and securing nominations all summer long. At first blush, this was a smart move by Brown. Not only did he eliminate a dynamic and appealing opponent - someone with the only real claim to the Baltimore region, which can really matter in a primary contest - Brown also absorbed Ulman's campaign war chest, and Ulman had proven to be a damn good fundraiser. Going into this contest, Gansler enjoyed a tremendous cash advantage, but the merging of the Brown and Ulman coffers largely eradicated that advantage. I'm still not certain if taking Ulman out of the race was the best option for Brown - I argued in January of last year that Brown's chances of securing the nomination increased with each additional candidate in the race. By tapping Ulman, Brown may have created a simple two man contest between himself and Gansler. In that scenario, Gansler has an advantage.


But of course, it's not a simple two man race; rather it's shaping up to be a pretty exciting three person race. Heather Mizeur officially announced that she was joining the fray just one month ago this week, but her intentions were clear months beforehand. Mizeur is among the very few women to ever seek the nomination for Maryland governor, and if elected she would be the Free States's first female governor. Mizeur is also one of only 8 openly gay members of the Maryland General Assembly. If she were to win the nomination, she would become the first openly LGBT candidate to run for governor on a major party ticket. Given the recent swings in public opinion in favor of marriage equality, Maryland's legalization of same-sex marriage (uphold by the voters at referendum), and the election of Tammy Baldwin to the U.S. Senate, Mizeur must feel a little bit of the winds of change at her back.

There are still the occasional rumblings about another candidate hopping into the race (Dutch Ruppersberger anyone?), and there's certainly plenty of time for a new candidate to get in - but one is left with a strong sense that the Democratic field is set - Doug Gansler, Anthony Brown, and Heather Mizeur.

As everyone understands, Maryland is a heavily Democratic state. The party claims 56% of registered voters to the GOP's 27%. As a result, the Democratic nominee is the odds on favorite to become the states next governor). So who will win the Democratic primary?

Last year, many a political observer assumed Attorney General Doug Gansler was the favorite. He had an impressive campaign war chest and had twice run and won statewide. The GOP didn't even bother challenging him in 2010 (I'll more to say about the GOP in a follow-up post). Gansler enjoys high name recognition and his work on behalf of the Chesapeake Bay and his official opinion that the state would recognize same sex marriages performed out of state have endeared him to state progressives - crucial in a primary. And Gansler hails from Maryland's most populated county - Montgomery. After the disaster that was the 2012 session of the Maryland General Assembly, Gansler's stock rose significantly. Governor O'Malley absorbed a tremendous amount of criticism (deservedly so) for the failure that was the 2012 session. Being part of the O'Malley team was no feather in Brown's cap that year.

But O'Malley quickly realized that the bad press from the failed session was harming his own presidential ambitions. Over the summer of 2012 he called two special sessions, one to settle the state budget and the other to address the issue of casino gambling in the state. O'Malley took control of the casino issue and worked hard at crafting a proposal acceptable to the House and Senate. Then, in November of 2012 O'Malley found himself symbolically on the ballot in Maryland not once, but four times. The casino measured passed by the Assembly was subject to voter approval, and three laws - marriage equality, the MD DREAM Act, and the new Congressional district map - were successfully petitioned to referendum. Would the voters rebuke O'Malley? The answer was a resounding "No." O'Malley carried the day on all 4 issues.

Then, the 2013 legislative session came and went with nary a hitch. The Assembly tackled several high profile issues - including a gas tax increase, a ban on the death penalty, off-shore wind development, and comprehensive gun control. It was an incredible string of progressive victories. Things were clearly breaking in favor of Brown.  He received O'Malley's endorsement early and since naming Ulman as his running mate Brown has collected an impressive portfolio of endorsements. In addition to O'Malley, he's been endorsed by Senate President Mike Miller, U.S. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, the Laborers International Union of North America, VoteVets.Org... the list goes on. In fact, almost daily I receive a press release from the Brown campaign announcing a new endorsement.

Meanwhile, Gansler has not formally announce a candidacy and has offered no hints regarding a running mate. Gansler, and his people, argue that no one other than political insiders are paying any attention to the 2014 race at this point. As such, there is little to be gained from making an announcement, picking a running mate, or collecting endorsements. There is some truth to Gansler's argument. Most Marylanders are not paying any attention to the 2014 race, but Gansler's audience is not most Marylanders. In 2010, only 25% of registered Democrats turned out for the primary. Primary voters tend to be the most dedicated and attentive voters - and these folks are likely paying some attention to the 2014 contest.

But for Gansler, waiting may well be the best course of action. To the extent that voters are tuning out the campaign, Brown is making headlines and receiving largely positive press during the time of year when folks are more concerned with their kid's summer camp and weekend traffic on the Bay bridge. By the time they snap back into reality in September (when Gansler makes his campaign official), Brown will have burned through most of his high profile endorsements and his naming of Ulman will be a memory. When Gansler announces his candidacy, how will Brown/Ulman counter program? When Gansler announces his running mate, how will Brown/Ulman counter program? When Gansler receives endorsement, how will Brown/Ulman counter program? The Brown campaigns needs to worry about peaking too soon and about burning through their positive press stories too early in the cycle. If Brown comes to be seen as the obvious frontrunner, the press will inevitably start looking for his weaknesses and any sign of weakness will be exaggerated.

There is another silver lining for Gansler. Brown is running as the consummate political insider, he is collecting endorsement after endorsement from the Democratic party establishment. He cannot claim to be anything but the candidate of the status quo. Maybe that's not so damaging in Democrat-friendly Maryland, but public confidence in government is at an all time low and Maryland has been criticized for it's lack of transparency and accountability in government. Being seen as the establishment's candidate may not be a winning strategy in 2014.  Brown has created an opportunity for Gansler to run as the only candidate who can shake up the system and claim some level of independence. The Attorney General is free from gubernatorial influence and with all of the high profile endorsements flowing to Brown - who in the establishment would Gansler feel beholden too?

The establishment is circling the wagons around "their guy" Anthony Brown, the guy who won't rock boat. But then there's Doug Gansler - as Attorney General he was more than happy to rock things. He was making progress protecting the Chesapeake while the General Assembly was waffling on the permeable surface tax, he was fighting for consumer protection long before the White House decided we needed a federal consumer protection agency. And same-sex marriage? Gansler was ahead of everyone else in Maryland on that issue. At a time when Team O'Malley and the General Assembly would rather have ignored the issue, Gansler stated that Maryland would recognize marriages from other states. It would be reasonable to argue that he forced the rest of MD's Democratic establishment to get on board.

If I'm a member of the Gansler team (and I'm not), I'm making the case that on issue after issue, Gansler was doing what he believed to be right for all Marylanders and not just what was best for the party establishment. I'd ask the question, do Marylanders want a tested and proven agent of positive change or a foot soldier for the status quo?

It remains to be seen whether Gansler will choose that strategy, but, while Brown has been travelling the state collecting endorsements Gansler has been traveling the state talking policy specifics as part of a “Building Our Best Maryland” tour. And Gansler has not chosen to narrow his focus to just feel-good policy issues. In a recent forum he tackled the weighty issue of prisoner recidivism in Maryland. It's a sad fact that our prisons are good at only one thing - creating repeat offenders. Once someone has served their sentence it is extremely difficult for them to return to society as productive members and many get caught in a prison revolving door. Gansler has proposed a number of significant changes for Maryland - including transitional housing assistance, hiding criminal convictions from potential employers if someone has been "clean" for 5 years, and better training and rehabilitation while in prison. It's never popular to talk about investing in those convicted of crimes, but it's the only way we're going to tackle our prison crowding problem where over 40% of released prisoners return to prison. Reducing recidivism would mean reducing crime.

Gansler has also proposed changes that would make Maryland government more transparent. Last year, the Center for Public Integrity released its “Corruption Risk Report Card” on which Maryland received an overall grade of D- and ranked 40th among states. As reported in the Washington Post, Maryland received an F on public access to information and legislative accountability. Among other reforms, Gansler envisions the creation of an inspector general who would facilitate access to public information. A proven agent of positive change or a foot soldier for the status quo?

And then there is Heather Mizeur. Mizeur was largely ignored by the Maryland political press until she shocked everyone by coming in second in a straw poll of Western Maryland Democrats. Mizeur has decided to run a rather unorthodox campaign. But Mizeur's decision to focus her campaign events around the themes of community and service may well resonate with the folks who get out and vote in primaries. So far her campaign events have collected supplies for a women's shelter, restored a playground, and cleaned a marshland. Though some Democratic party insiders have grumbled that she is too young and has jumped the queue by getting into this race only to serve some future political ambitions, Mizeur has countered that if she loses the primary she's done with politics. Mizeur is from Montgomery county - a crucial and vote rich county and she has strong connections to the Eastern Shore as she and her spouse operate an organic farm there.

Though Mizeur makes headlines as an LGBT candidate, her record on issues hits the mark for many a party activist. Mizeur was central in the effort to allow college age kids in MD  to remain on their parents insurance - well before this became the law nationally. She is a passionate defender of the environment and leading voice in the effort to prevent natural gas extraction via fracking in Western Maryland. In addition to her policy positions, Mizeur offers Maryland women a chance to finally crack the Annapolis glass ceiling AND she offers Maryland progressives a chance to say that we have turned the page on the issue of LGBT equality. Despite the challenges she'll face, I consider her to be the most exciting candidate in the race - and in a primary, excitement matters.

So who has the upper hand? I still argue the odds favor Brown. Having the party establishment behind you is a big deal in a low turn-out election where getting people to the polls is all that matters. Gansler and Mizeur will divide the Montgomery county electorate while Brown will be uncontested in his home turf of PG county. Though running mates rarely impact an election, Ulman certainly can help Brown in Howard county and Brown's connection to O'Malley will help in Baltimore City. In a three way race it can take as little as 33.4% of the vote to win - Brown is the candidate most likely to cross that mark in a multi-candidate race.

If Maryland voters feel O'Malley fatigue in 2014, then Brown could suffer the consequences. And Gansler will need to run against the O'Malley record on several key issues if he's going to damage Brown.

For Mizeur, her best hope is an all out negative battle between Brown and Gansler (that's also the GOP's best hope). In the midst of such a battle, her focus on community and service may offer the perfect alternative.

So, much has changed since I last looked at the 2014 race... and yet, nothing much has changed.

Next, I'll look at the MD GOP and the candidates for governor (announced and unannounced), a recent Red Maryland poll offers some interesting results.

A Crowded Gubernatorial Primary in Maryland in 2014?

In January I published a piece in which I explored the likely Democratic field in the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial contest. As I saw it at the time: "there are likely to be four big names (and what a rarity that is - four credible candidates) seeking the Democratic nomination, Attorney General Doug Gansler, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, Comptroller Peter Franchot, and Howard County Executive Ken Ulman."

In that review I concluded that Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, and not Doug Gansler, was the likely favorite in a 4 person race.

Though many observers of state politics argue Gansler is the clear front runner, I would suggest that conclusion is anything but certain. If the 2014 primary were like a typical Democratic primary in recent years with only two credible candidates then certainly Gansler would be the favorite - but in a three man race his odds drop considerably and in a 4 man race a clear new favored candidate emerges from the pack - Lt. Governor Anthony Brown. In a multi-candidate race featuring Brown, the closest competitor will be the candidate who can appeal to rural Marylanders in Western Maryland, the Eastern Shore, and Southern Maryland - that candidate is not (at least not yet) Doug Gansler.

Franchot has positioned himself as the candidate of fiscal constraint and is clearly attempting to create a relationship with parts of Maryland long overlooked by Democrats and Democratic candidates. If Franchot can become the candidate of "the rest of Maryland" while dividing the I-95 corridor vote, he may emerge atop the pack.

In the 9 months since I made those assessments I believe that they still hold. I argued at the time that Brown's greatest threat was likely to be O'Malley fatigue. The disaster that was the 2012 legislative session followed by the two special sessions that yielded O'Malley advocated tax increases on Marylanders and substantial tax cuts for millionaire casino operators I think the O'Malley fatigue problem will weigh heavily on Brown.

Franchot has been a consistent and forceful voice of opposition to the tax hikes and the to expansion of casino gambling. But Franchot has been especially vocal in his anger over the role of money in influencing the casino issue during the special session. His demands for disclosure of gambling related donations received by members of the assembly and his recent call for real time disclosure of contributions were all welcome calls for reform - that I believe resonate well with the public.

For these reasons and more I see Franchot's stock rising in the 2014 guber-stakes. Hints that Montgomery County Del. Heather Mizeur is considering a run adds in many ways to Franchot's stock. Mizeur is a rising star in the state Democratic Party and no one should underestimate her future. But in a multi-candidate primary I believe that Mizeur's presence only serves to divide the core progressive Democratic base. In a contest featuring Mizeur, Ulman, Gansler, and Brown the I-95 corridor will be split multiple ways and suddenly "the rest of Maryland" as I termed it in January becomes that much more crucial. That only helps Franchot.

But there are storm clouds threatening Franchot's chance in that 5 person race - a cloud in the shape of former Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith. In a July, 2011 piece I wrote of the 2014 contest and theorized a 3 person race that included Gansler, Brown, and Franchot. I concluded then that a three person race helped Franchot, but offered this caveat:

In a three-way race, if Gansler and Brown have split the base vote of the party, Franchot can emerge the victor with no more than 34% of the vote. It's a wise strategy, but also the only strategy available to him.

Only one thing could upend Franchot's approach - Jim Smith. Smith is the former county Executive from Baltimore County and a former judge. He is a moderate Democrat with a base of support in an important part of the state.

If Smith enters the race and Gansler and Brown split the base vote and Franchot and Smith split the moderate to conservative vote then anyone of them could become the nominee with no more that 26% of the vote.

I had since dropped Smith from consideration as I was hearing quite clearly that he would not be running, but today Maryland Juice is reporting that Jim Smith is considering a run... a 6 person contest.

I still believe Smith and Franchot would split the moderate to conservative vote. In such a scenario I think the odds shift back to Brown - but in many ways this mix of candidates throws the race wide open.

Stay Tuned...

Defensive O'Malley Hurts Only Himself

Maryland is unique in that it has two independently elected executive branch offices closely involved with state finances. The Governor has the power under the state constitution to set the state's budget and the General Assembly can do little to alter the Governor's priorities. The Comptroller is the state's tax collector and sits on the Board of Revenue Estimates and more important is an equal voice to the Governor on the Board of Public Works.

Our current Comptroller, Peter Franchot, would like to be governor. Our current Governor, Martin O'Malley, would like to be President - increasingly the career goals of these two men have been on a collision course.

Sporting a very modest record of accomplishments during his time as governor, O'Malley has put forth a very aggressive legislative agenda. His agenda includes significant tax increases during a time of a weak economic recovery. From decreased deductions for middle and upper income Marylanders to incredibly regressive increases in the gas tax and the state's so-called flush tax O'Malley has spared few from the pain of tax increases.

To quote President Obama, raising taxes during a weak economy is not a good idea. Unfortunately for O'Malley, the state's electoral calendar does not mesh well with his needs. The next governor and every member of the General Assembly will be on the ballot in 2014 - 2 short years from now. As such, O'Malley knows that no rational member of the Assembly would be willing to take politically costly votes the closer we get to the next election. Likewise, as each year passes, state term limits make O'Malley more of a lame duck. For O'Malley he must swing for the fences in the current legislative session. Neither the 2013 nor 2014 session will be any more favorable territory.

So O'Malley has put forward an unpopular package of tax increases and he is experiencing significant push back from within his own party. If O'Malley loses and his proposals are defeated or significantly altered he will appear weak - a Democratic governor that cannot get an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature in a solidly Democratic state to approve tax increases. Such a loss would hardly form a solid foundation upon which to launch a national campaign.

Enter Comptroller Franchot. As the state's tax and revenue collector and as an independently elected representative of the people Franchot, like Comptrollers before him, has exercised the power of his office to wade into the fight over taxes and spending. A likely candidate for governor in 2014, Franchot has been vocal in his opposition to tax increases during a weak economy. Not opposition to tax increases, just opposition during a weak economy. For a potential gubernatorial candidate it's not a bad position to take given a recent Washington Post poll that showed significant opposition to O'Malley's agenda. I hasten to add that Ken Ulman, Howard County Executive and another possible contender for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, has been equally critical of other aspects of O'Malley's agenda - especially the Governor's proposal to improve the state's budget shortfalls by simply shifting a significant portion of the costs for teachers' pensions onto the counties (which would of course result in local tax increases).

Likely quite frustrated by all of the in-party push back, O'Malley lashed out at Franchot today calling him "our Mitt Romney." O'Malley explained that he views Franchot as an opportunistic flip-flopper simply voicing opposition for political expediency. Franchot's response was devastating "I’m sorry if I’m getting in the way of his presidential efforts."

For O'Malley the whole episode just looks bad. First, O'Malley has served to make the party divisions over his budget front page news. Instead of railing against tea party extremists, O'Malley is broadcasting the fact that in his own state many Democrats are opposed to his tax plans. Suddenly opposition to O'Malley's tax increases is not simply a partisan affair. Perhaps worse, by bringing Mitt Romney's name into the fight O'Malley plays right into the criticisms that he is too concerned with national politics and not paying sufficient attention to the state he was elected to govern. Why not call Franchot a "Pipkin Democrat" or an "O'Donnell Follower" or "another Jim Brochin"... anything that would demonstrate a connection to state politics?

What's more, O'Malley is the de facto head of the state's Democratic party. But his personal attack on Franchot and the dissension within the ranks that it spotlights suggests a chief executive unable to unify his party. Imagine if O'Malley had instead said of Franchot, "the great, and sometimes frustrating, thing about Democrats is that we do not insist on ideological purity. Unlike our Republican counterparts we embrace diverse perspectives. The Comptroller and I may disagree on this issue, but there are far more issues that unite us as Democrats." Instead, he launched an ill conceived attack.

In one sentence, O'Malley elevated the story of party divisions and opposition to his agenda and furthers the narrative that he is otherwise engaged in matters of national politics during a critical period in Maryland politics. He also gave Franchot a lot of free publicity and highlighted the fact that Franchot shares the opinion of most Marylanders when it comes to tax increases. In short, O'Malley hurt no one but himself.

Peter Franchot's Anti-partisan Message

Comptroller Peter Franchot was gracious enough to set aside time to meet with my Maryland Politics class today. Though the topic of his political future and the 2014 gubernatorial race never came up, I believe that my class heard key elements of Franchot's argument should he seek the party nomination.

I was especially impressed with the decidedly anti-partisan nature of his comments. And I do mean anti-partisan, not merely non-partisan. Franchot was equally critical of national party politics. He accused Democrats of using the issue of tax increases for the wealthy not as means by which to restore fiscal discipline, but rather a cynical effort to dived people and win votes. Likewise, he argued Republicans' insistence on tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts has noting to do with promoting economic growth, rather as with Democrats it's simply a strategy to divide and target elements of the electorate. In a state dominated by Democrats, the safe choice would be to criticize Republicans and embrace the Democrats, Franchot's criticism was risky and refreshing.

According to Franchot, the parties each have one central and overriding goal - winning elections. Not sound public policy, not responsible budgeting, and certainly not the common good - just winning for the sake of winning.

It was a refreshingly honest assessment of the sorry state of contemporary American politics.

When the discussion turned to Maryland politics, Franchot explained that he believes the tenuous nature of the economic recovery requires that Marylanders have some degree of predictability with regard to their finances. To that end he said he believes that state needs a moratorium on any tax increases. He singled out Governor O'Malley's proposed increases in the income tax burden of Marylanders earning more than $100,000 a year.

With regard to job creation, Franchot dismissed frequent Republican accusations that the state is hostile to business and instead offered perhaps a more damning critique - that the state's bureaucracy all to often seems indifferent to business. The Comptroller argued the state's bureaucracy has become too inefficient with too many redundancies.

When asked about the legislative session and whether there were any bills that he favored or opposed he quickly singled out the Budget Reconciliation and Financing Act - otherwise known as BRFA - which he said is being used to push through tax increases in manor that limits debate and the General Assembly's input.

In a recent post I argued that in a four person race, the person best positioned to compete with Lt. Governor Anthony Brown would be the candidate with a message that resonates with Democrats outside of the I-95 corridor. Franchot may have the makings of a message that appeals to the folks in all parts of Maryland.

My students will be meeting with Howard County Executive Ken Ulman next month and I look forward to that meeting and hope to write a similar follow-up. I'm currently working to coordinate a meeting with the Lt. Governor.

Maryland 2014 and the Men Who Would Be Governor

The 2014 Democratic primary for Maryland governor may seem a long way off, but for the men interested in the nomination it looms large on the horizon. With all eyes turned to the 2012 legislative session of the General Assembly and Martin O'Malley's high profile gambit for a resume' of actual accomplishments I think it's worth taking a moment to look at the men who wish to succeed him.

At present, there are likely to be four big names (and what a rarity that is - four credible candidates) seeking the Democratic nomination, Attorney General Doug Gansler, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, Comptroller Peter Franchot, and Howard County Executive Ken Ulman.

Only two Republicans have won statewide election since 1980 (can you name the two?) so the odds do favor a Democrat winning the general election, regardless of the Republican nominee.

Though many observers of state politics argue Gansler is the clear frontrunner, I would suggest that conclusion is anything but certain. If the 2014 primary were like a typical Democratic primary in recent years with only two credible candidates then certainly Gansler would be the favorite - but in a three man race his odds drop considerably and in a 4 man race a clear new favored candidate emerges from the pack - Lt. Governor Anthony Brown. In a multi-candidate race featuring Brown, the closest competitor will be the candidate who can appeal to rural Marylanders in Western Maryland, the Eastern Shore, and Southern Maryland - that candidate is not (at least not yet) Doug Gansler.

Quick Candidate Profiles

Gansler
In a recent profile, Gansler described himself as "fiscally conservative" and “an unabashed, pro-business, moderate centrist Democrat.” Though this may be the image Gansler would want to project in a general election, his record and reputation suggest otherwise. In 2008, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the 2nd Amendment right to keep and bear arms was an individual right and that states were limited in their power to restrict such rights. Prior to the ruling, Gansler joined a friend-of-the-court brief submitted to the Supreme Court urging the justices not to extend the Second Amendment to the states. During the 2010 legislative session of the General Assembly, Gansler sent waves through Maryland politics when he issued an opinion that Maryland courts would likely recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. As Attorney General, Gansler has made environmental protection a top priority and even created the Attorney General’s Environmental Advisory Council to advise him. In short, Gansler's tenure in office has been marked by the high profile pursuit of very liberal causes. To be fair, Gansler may be fiscally conservative, but there is little opportunity for an Attorney General to establishing those credentials. Make no mistake, Gansler will be the liberal in the 2014 primary. His advisory opinion on Maryland recognizing same-sex marriage, his environmental crusading, and his firm support of gun control would make it impossible for him to claim to be anything but a member of the progressive wing of the Democratic party. That said, Maryland has promoted past Attorneys General - seven have sought the governorship since 1900 and three have been elected. But no Attorney General has made the leap to Government House since 1946 - of the three that have tried since then none succeeded.

Franchot
This brings us to Comptroller Peter Franchot. Since early last year, Franchot has wisely used his role as Comptroller to lay claim to the banner of true fiscal conservative. Last summer, Franchot warned Maryland (but especially the Governor and General Assembly) that the state had become too reliant on the federal government for jobs and economic growth. What sounded like a wise warning in August now seems especially prescient given the failure of the Deficit Reduction Supercommittee. Maryland is uniquely dependent on the federal government. Fully 1/5 of the state workforce is employed by government at some level and 30% of the state's budget revenue comes from the federal government. If federal budget cuts are truly in our future, Maryland's golden days of low unemployment and job growth may be gone. More recently, Franchot criticized Governor O'Malley's FY 2013 budget proposal and argued for a moratorium on tax increases until the economy improves. In comments last week before the Maryland Association of Realtors Franchot singled out the Governor's plan to phase-out the mortgage interest deduction for upper middle class earners as especially troubling in a state with a still recovering housing market. In perhaps the most significant sign that Franchot will wear the banner of true fiscal conservative his warnings against state borrowing recently earned the scorn of the Baltimore Sun editorial page (a distinction likely to be viewed as a badge of honor by voters outside of the I-95 corridor). Franchot also has history on his side, of the six Comptrollers who have been elected in the past 90 years three were elected governor after serving as Comptroller. Marylanders tend to trust their Comptrollers.

Ulman
Howard County Executive Ken Ulman will have the benefit of being the only chief executive in the race and he will be the only candidate from the Baltimore region (authentically given that Ulman's parents are from Baltimore). Since the 1950s, 8 of the last 10 governors have come from Baltimore City or County. Five of the last 10 were county executives or mayors - suggesting Maryland voters like to elect candidates with executive experience. Though once the political power base in the state, Baltmore City and the larger Baltimore region have witnessed the state's population and political power as it slowly, but clearly migrates to the DC suburbs in Montgomery and Prince Georges Counties. The greater Baltimore region of Baltimore City, as well as Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Howard County is home to 41% of the state's registered Democrats. Ulman has been in the headlines recently criticizing the Governor's proposal to shifted millions of dollars in teacher's pension costs to the counties in an effort to balance the state budget. Ulman cannot easily be defined as liberal or conservative - he is, dare I say, post-partisan. Even as he criticized the Governor's budget, he has been lauded for the county's innovative health reform efforts and Ulman was central to the state's receipt of a federal grant to bring broadband to the state.

Brown
Then there is Anthony Brown. Brown has great resume' for governor. Brown is an Iraq War veteran and Bronze Star recipient, he served nearly 3 decades in the Army and is a Colonel in the Army Reserves. Brown represented legislative district 25 in Prince Georges County from 1998-2006 and was House Majority Whip. The downside for Brown is that even with that incredible resume' many folks in Maryland wonder just who he is. If his goal is to become the next governor of the state, he has not used his time as Lt. Governor as well as one might expect. Brown also has the weight of history working against him. Since the office of Lt. Governor was restored in 1970 no Lt. Governor has gone on to be elected Governor. In fact, only one has even managed to secure the party nomination. That said, he will undoubtedly lay an early claim to the significant African-American vote in the primary. African-Americans compose roughly a third of the Maryland population and a quarter of the registered voters, and are the most reliable Democratic voting bloc - yet the Democratic Party has never nominated and run an African-American candidate at the top of any statewide ticket. Brown is an accomplished legislator with an impressive resume and I believe that African-American voters would be quick to rally around his candidacy.

Looking at the Candidates Strengths/Weaknesses

Gansler and Liberals
In a primary, typically the most committed and partisan activist vote. For Democrats that would mean liberals. In the 2008 presidential primary, 52% of the Democrats voting described themselves as liberal. Laying claim to 52% of the electorate in a 4 man race is no small accomplishment, but it gets more complicated. A further review of the exit poll data suggests that no small share of the Democrats' liberal base is composed of a significant number of African-Americans. This worked out well for Barack Obama as he won 84% of the African-American vote. For Gansler, however, it means the liberal base will be divided and that 52% will be divided between Gansler and Brown - and do not discount Ulman's appeal, especially based on Howard County's health reforms.

Gansler is from Montgomery County and has a record of winning county-wide having served two terms as the states attorney. Montgomery County is home to 16% of the state's registered Democrats. Unfortunately for Gansler, Franchot is also from Montgomery County and represented parts of the county in the General Assembly - so the two men will split the county's votes. Well over a third of the county's registered Democrats are African-Americans and Brown is likely to claim a significant share of them as well.

Brown and African-Americans (please see ***note at end of post)
African-Americans are the Democratic Party's most loyal voting bloc and I believe that the state's many African-American communities will be eager to elect the state's first black chief executive. By my calculation, African-Americans are about 38% of the state's registered Democrats. Barack Obama received 84% of their vote in 2008 and, again based on my own calculations, Kweisi Mfume received about 85% of the African-American vote in the the 2006 Democratic Senate primary. This represents a significant advantage for Brown. In the 2006 primary (which featured a competitive nomination race for Comptroller and Senator) only 30% of state Democrats voted. By my estimation, African-Americans were roughly 38% of that turn-out.

Based on current voter registration totals, a 30% primary turn-out would translate into 577,600 voting Democrats. Assuming African-American and white turn-out is similar then 38%, or 219,500, of the Democrats would be African American and based on past elections Brown would win 84% of their vote, or 184,400 votes - 32% of the total votes cast. So before including his share of the white vote, Brown receives nearly 1/3 of the vote in a 4 man race.... that's quite an advantage.

Ulman and the Baltimore Region 
Those same 2008 exit polls show 48% of voters came from the greater Baltimore region. So being the Baltimore candidate would be a smart strategic move. No other candidate has a clear claim to the region, but of the 48%, nearly a third were from Baltimore City. Nearly two-thirds of City residents are African-American and that means that some of Ulman's "Baltimore advantage" would be diminished as he loses voters to Brown. That said, Howard County is a swing county in a crucial location. Howard is literally the connective tissue that links the Baltimore region with the DC suburbs in Montgomery and PG. Beyond that, western Howard County links the the urban and suburban I-95 corridor with rural Western Maryland. Additionally, Ulman's efforts in Howard County from the Healthy Howard program to environmental initiatives - such as green buildings - would allow him to challenge Gansler's claim to the liberal base.

In many ways, Howard county encapsulates the diversity (economically, geographically, socially) that make Maryland great. Ulman's ability to win there may speak to an ability to appeal to the diverse elements of Maryland's Democratic electorate. That said, Howard County is one of the wealthiest counties in the nation and that may work against Ulman as he campaigns in Allegany and Garret County in the west or Wicomico in the east - something will be necessary in a 4 person race. Ulman has maintained Howard's AAA bond rating and kept the county's books in balance - but I think he has a better chance of appealing to the party's liberal base than to more conservative Democrats outside the I-95 corridor.

Franchot and Forgotten Maryland
As I consider Franchot's emphasis on fiscal conservatism I am convinced that he has given a great deal of consideration to the 2014 primary as he has adopted a very wise campaign strategy should he run in a 3 or 4 man race for the nomination. As Comptroller, Franchot cannot initiate new programs like a County Executive, he cannot head taskforces like a Lt. Governor, and he cannot wade into high profile cases like an Attorney General. But, the Comptroller of the state of Maryland is uniquely positioned to take on issues of fiscal prudence. His position on the Board of Public Works makes him the equal of the Governor with regard to budget cuts when the Assembly is not in session and that role gives him every right to establish an independent fiscal identity in the state - he was, after all, elected by the voters independent of the Governor. The Comptroller commands a staff of over 1,100 and sits on the capital debt affordability commission, the commission on state debt, and the board of revenue estimates (among others) - those positions, combined with the Board of Public Works make the Comptroller a key point of citizen contact within the state.

Surveying the 2014 primary landscape one can easily see a battle for the I-95 corridor from Baltimore City, southern Baltimore County, north and west Anne Arundel County, as well as Howard, Montgomery and Prince Georges (and northern Charles) counties. Gansler, Ulman and Brown all have advantages that are very much confined to that area - an area home to 81% of the state's Democrats. But that leaves 17 counties and nearly 20% of the Democratic electorate with no champion. Franchot's fiscal conservatism and swipes at the federal dependency of central Maryland can clearly be understood as an appeal to voters outside of the I-95 corridor who often feel overlooked by the state's Democratic party.

The Role of "the Rest of Maryland" in 2014
All four potential candidates have some claim to the central Maryland I-95 corridor. Gansler, Brown, and Franchot hold statewide office, Brown hails from Prince Georges County, Franchot and Gansler have electoral histories in Montgomery County. Ulman represents Howard. The I-95 corridor may include 81% of the primary electorate, but 81% divided among 4 candidates comes out to about 20.25% per man - in a four person race someone needs to top 25% statewide. That's why rural Maryland is likely to figure far more predominantly in 2014 than it has in any recent Democratic primary.

At present, none of the 4 expected candidates has natural claim to voters in Western or Southern Maryland or on the Eastern Shore. Since none of the candidates are native to those parts of Maryland, the candidate who can find a message that resonates will be best positioned to claim those voters. For Gansler, I do not see how he overcomes his perceived liberalism. Further, he risks alienating his liberal base by trying to present himself as a fiscal conservative. Brown will be harmed by his affiliation with O'Malley. If this year's budget is approved then Brown will be part of an administration that was responsible for two significant tax increases (2007 and 2012) and that "declared war" on rural Maryland. Ulman's innovations in Howard County could become liabilities in rural Maryland where the median income is often half that of Howard County. For Franchot, his past as a liberal Democrat in the General Assembly is likely to be overshadowed by his more recent work as Comptroller. Because it is a fiscal position he does not have the added baggage of social issues to work against him in rural Maryland.

In a four way race featuring Brown, Franchot, Gansler, and Ulman the simple math favors Brown owing to the power of African-American voters in the Democratic electorate. But Brown is likely to be harmed in many parts of the state by his association with O'Malley. Gansler has the money and clearly the ambition but it's difficult to see how Gansler broadens his appeal beyond white liberals in central Maryland - and even among them he will face competition. Ulman brings established credentials as an executive and the promise of a post-partisan age, but will need to establish statewide name recognition beyond the orbit of Howard County. Franchot has positioned himself as the candidate of fiscal constraint and is clearly attempting to create a relationship with parts of Maryland long overlooked by Democrats and Democratic candidates. If Franchot can become the candidate of "the rest of Maryland" while dividing the I-95 corridor vote, he may emerge atop the pack.

The 2014 race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination will be anything but boring, recently released campaign fundrasing numbers show that all four men will have the money needed to compete. Each of the possible candidates bring much to the table in the form of strengths and limitations. Each can lay claim to crucial elements of the Democratic electorate. At present, Gansler has far more money, Brown has a crucial voting bloc and an incredible resume', Ulman has the experience as an executive, and Franchot has a message that truly resonates in the current environment.

I believe that a four man race favors Brown, but he may have to overcome O'Malley fatigue and an electorate hard-pressed to think of an O'Malley accomplishment. In that event, or if this turns into a three person race, the candidate who can consolidate the voters outside the I-95 corridor is likely to emerge the victor.

*** I hasten to add a very important caveat. In no way do I mean to suggest that African-Americans would support a candidate simply based on skin color. Republican Michael Steele's inability to make in-roads with African-American voters in 2006 and Republican Charles Lollar's similar inability in the 5th Congressional District in 2010 clearly demonstrate that African-American voters care more about issues than about race. What Obama in 2008 and Mfume in 2006 show, however, is that when faced with a choice of candidates who share similarly acceptable policy views African-American voters overwhelmingly support the African-American candidate. An easily justified choice given the population's history of being denied representation.

Peter Franchot, the Progressive Conservative

I continue to be impressed with Comptroller Peter Franchot and his maneuvering toward the 2014 gubernatorial contest. With the redistricting "battle" behind us and the special legislative session of the General Assembly adjourned, all attention has shifted to the upcoming regular session and the question of tax increases. A panel convened by Governor O’Malley and tasked with identifying new revenue streams to pay for transportation infrastructure improvements has endorsed a $0.15 a gallon increase in the state's gas tax, they also endorsed significant increases in automobile titling and registration fees and a doubling of the vehicle emissions inspection fee. Not to be outdone, A state task force is considering doubling and then tripling the state's so-called "flush tax" from its current $30 per year to $90 by 2015.

In response to these proposals, Franchot has called for a two year freeze on all new taxes and fees to “give businesses and consumers time to catch their breath.”

A few months ago, Franchot made headlines arguning Maryland needed to be less reliant on the federal sector for job creation. I argued at the time that it was a smart move and showed Franchot was trying to position himself as the conservative option in a Democratic gubernatorial primary that is likely to feature two well-known, and progressive, Democrats - Attorney General Doug Gansler and Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown.

Democrats' routinely win about 60% of the statewide vote so winning the Democratic primary is a doorway to the governorship. Gansler is an unabashed liberal and Brown, the state's first African-American Lt. Governor and an accomplished legislator with an impressive resume, will undoubtedly lay an early claim to the significant African-American vote.  So Gansler and Brown will split two of the most reliable segments of the Democratic primary voting population - liberals and African-Americans.

This creates an opening for a moderate to conservative Democrat to lay claim to white, moderate and conservative Democrats, of whom there are many in Maryland.

But the situation is even better for Franchot. The three Democratic power centers in Maryland are Baltimore City, Montgomery county, and Prince Georges county. Democrats routinely lose most of the other counties in the state, but win those population centers. In a primary contest, a candidate who could claim those regions would be unbeatable - but if they are divided then the state's remaining, and far more conservative counties, become crucial.  Brown hails from Prince Georges county and if he is able to consolidate the African-American vote then he is likely to claim Prince Georges county and Baltimore City - much as Kweisi Mfume did in the 2006 Senate primary against Ben Cardin. Cardin bested Mfume by winning Montgomery county, Baltimore county and Anne Arundel county by nearly 2-to-1 margins.

Gansler and Franchot are from Montgomery county and both have held elective office there. They would likely split the county's vote. If one were to return to the 2006 Senate primary, a cursory review of election results would seem to suggest that Gansler and Franchot splitting the vote outside of Baltimore City and Prince Georges county would benefit Brown. But the 2006 Senate primary was missing something, something Franchot is looking to bring to the 2014 gubernatorial contest - a moderate/conservative option for Democratic primary voters. In 2006, Democratic turnout in more conservative counties (Allegheny, Carroll, Frederick, Washington) was below overall turnout. If Franchot offers moderate and conservative Democrats a reason to vote in a primary contest there is reason to suspect that turn-out in more conservative parts of the state would increase - this presents Franchot with his path to victory.

The greatest obstacle to Franchot would be the entry into the race of another moderate/conservative Democrat - like Howard county Executive Ken Ulman. Not only would Ulman lay claim to Howard county's crucial bloc of voters, he would divide the moderate/conservative primary vote. If that were to be the case, Brown would cruise to victory.

Franchot has one path to the nomination and it requires an undivided appeal to the state's sizeable bloc of moderate and conservative Democrats. His opposition to new tax increases stakes an early claim to those voters and is a wise move.

That said, there is cause for progressives to rally behind him as well. All of the tax increases currently being debated are incredibly regressive taxes that will disproportionately harm low-income and working class families. Raising taxes on gas and increasing fees for auto registration is not like raising the cigarette tax - people can simply decide to stop smoking to avoid that tax. But there is no substitute for gas and in most parts of Maryland public transportation is not an option. Worse, in a weak economy, people have to take jobs wherever they can find them and in a weak housing market they cannot simply sell their home and move to where jobs may be - so they need to drive to work and sometimes they need to drive a considerable distance (especially if you live in rural areas... conservative, rural areas). For low-income and working class families, cars and gasoline are not conveniences, they are crucial lifelines.

That the Governor and the General Assembly would even consider such a regressive assault on the economic well-being of working families is unconscionable. Democrats raising taxes and fees on working families is no less egregious than Republican attempts to cut services to these folks. But Democrats are avoiding more progressive forms of taxation and targeting the poor for the same reason Republicans refuse to consider tax increases for the wealthy and cut programs for the poor - the wealthy vote, but turn-out drops sharply as income levels fall.

Of course the counter argument would be that the new taxes and fees would effect everyone, rich and poor alike. But the poor lose a much greater share of their income to excise taxes and fees. Although state and county-level data is difficult to obtain, federal tax data does demonstrate the regressive nature of excise taxes in general and on fuel specifically. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bottom 20% of wage earners pay nearly 1% of their income on excise taxes on gasoline and motor fuel alone. By contrast, the top 20% pay only 0.3% of their income on such taxes. When all federal excise taxes are considered, the proportional burden placed on the bottom 20% rises to nearly 2.8%, while the burden placed on the top 20% is only 0.5%. A 3% burden compared to a 0.5% burden... that's the very definition of regressive folks.


Franchot's latest smart move is doubly smart - it appeals to more conservative minded Democrats by calling for greater fiscal responsibility AND it may play well with true progressives offended by the state's attempt to balance its books on the backs of the poor.

Well played Mr. Franchot.

Franchot Makes A Smart Move for 2014

In an interesting statement at the Board of Public Works meeting, State Comptroller Peter Franchot said "We have become uniquely tied at the hip or joined at the hip to the federal government," and lawmakers need to rededicate Maryland toward "a business climate that inspires, promotes and rewards private-sector investment in Maryland."

In stark contrast to Governor Martin O'Malley's frequent lauding of Maryland's reliance on federal jobs Franchot further argued "We as a state simply can't allow ourselves to become complacent and allow the federal government to become the economic engine of first and last resort in Maryland."

Franchot's comments sound like something that might have been said by Republican Bob Ehrlich during the 2010 gubernatorial contest - Ehrlich lost the race by 14.5 percentage points, but I think these comments signal a wise strategic move by Franchot as he looks to the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary.

At present, there are likely to be at least three big names seeking the Democratic nomination, Attorney General Doug Gansler, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, and Franchot.

Odds favor a Democrat winning the general election, regardless of the Republican nominee, so winning the Democratic primary is just a doorway to the governorship.

If Franchot faces Gansler and Brown then embracing a moderate to conservative agenda will help him.

Gansler is an unabashed liberal, his advisory opinion on Maryland recognizing same-sex marriage, his environmental crusading, and his firm support of gun control would make it impossible for him to claim to be anything but a member of the progressive wing of the Democratic party. Brown will undoubtedly lay an early claim to the significant African-American vote in the primary. African-Americans compose roughly a third of the Maryland population and are the most reliable Democratic voting bloc - yet the Democratic Party has never nominated and run an African-American candidate at the top of any statewide ticket. Brown is an accomplished legislator with an impressive resume and I believe that African-American voters would be quick to rally around his candidacy.

So between Gansler and Brown two of the most reliable segments of the Democratic primary voting population will be claimed - liberals and African-Americans. The only way for Franchot to be competitive is to target the folks who would be left out - white, moderate and conservative working class Democrats, of whom there are many in Maryland.

In a three-way race, if Gansler and Brown have split the base vote of the party, Franchot can emerge the victor with no more than 34% of the vote. It's a wise strategy, but also the only strategy available to him.

Only one thing could upend Franchot's approach - Jim Smith. Smith is the former county Executive from Baltimore County and a former judge. He is a moderate Democrat with a base of support in an important part of the state.

If Smith enters the race and Gansler and Brown split the base vote and Franchot and Smith split the moderate to conservative vote then anyone of them could become the nominee with no more that 26% of the vote.

But a four way race like that would likely divide the party. If one of the liberal candidates emerge then Republicans will have a fighting chance in the general election, but if Franchot or Smith win then the race is over - for Democrats to win the general election with a liberal candidate (against an acceptable GOP candidate) they need a unified party.

2014 seems so far away, but Franchot's comments remind us that it's closer than it seems.