Does the MD GOP have a Deep Bench?

In a recent interview I was quoted as saying:

“It speaks to the sorry state of the Republican party in Maryland... You’re not going to have Doug Gansler … you’ve got an open race, the potential for a divisive Democratic primary. If they want anyone to ever take them seriously, they’ve got to win some statewide offices every now and then, which means trying to build a bench instead of running these throwaway challenges.”

 

Apparently this annoyed Red Maryland's Greg Kline. After taking the obligatory GOP talking point swipe against college professors (for the record, no one who knows me would ever think I read the Huffington Post) he suggested that the MD GOP has a significant and impressive bench of potential candidates.

The good assistant professor (actually I'm an Associate Professor) is right that a lack of a candidate even being discussed does reflect poorly on the MDGOP but he his so wrong about the state party not having a bench or plenty of qualified, potential candidates.... Any potential AG candidate knows that they would be on their own running statewide.  The state party is too much focused on creating a list of people to call and too little focused on what they are going to tell the person on the other end of the phone.

Kline then goes on to explain why the MD GOP cannot get potential candidates to agree to run for office in the state. "Candidate recruitment, like recruiting for a college football team, is about selling the experience and making someone want to be a part of something. This is exactly what the party isn't doing."

Kline then rattles off a list of what the MD GOP must do if it wants to recruit candidates. And Kline is spot on. Where Kline and I actually disagree is on just what constitutes "a bench of candidates." To me, a strong bench consists of candidates preferably with some degree of name recognition and a clear willingness to run if asked. Even better are candidates already holding office. The party would be best served if they were able to tap candidates from among the swelling ranks of elected GOP officials at the county level. Kline argues that the party has a deep bench simply because there are a lot qualified potential candidates in the state (there are 5.9 million people in the state, of course there are a lot of qualified potential candidates) - but those folks aren't willing to run. To me, that's not a bench. At best it's a two-legged stool. To build on Kline's football team analogy, the bench consists of those folks on the team and ready to play. It doesn't refer to the excellent potential players that are watching from the bleachers.

In 2010 the state GOP let Doug Gansler run unopposed for AG. Nationwide, 2010 was a fantastic year for the GOP - Maryland was a glaring exception that didn't need to be. In the U.S. Senate race Queen Anne's County Commissioner sEric Wargotz scored the highest level of support against Mikulski in two decades. With very little money and no debates Wargotz neared 40% of the vote.

As I have argued in prior posts, Maryland is not a 2-to-1 Democratic state. If you look at actual election results it's closer to a 60/40 state. Credible GOP candidates are able to hit that 40% mark, stronger candidates are able to exceed that share. But such strong candidates are rare in MD. Michael Steele and Bob Ehrlich were each able to top that 40% mark. William Campell and Anne McCarthy were quality Comptroller candidates in 2010 and 2006. In 2014 the state GOP has the potential to have strong candidates for governor and Campbell is likely to run again for Comptroller. Though I consider Harford County Executive David Craig to be the strongest gubernatorial candidate, Delegate Ron George is a solid candidate as well and either could give the Democratic nominee a real fight. Assuming Craig or George actually campaign for the job (as opposed to Ehrlich's lazy mess of a campaign in 2010) they should have no problem topping Ehrlich's 42% from 2010 and could even achieve victory.

It's important that the state GOP have quality candidates running for all statewide offices, yes they'd all face an uphill battle to win but a strong top of the ticket can boost turnout and help candidates down ballot cross the finish line in races for the state Senate, House of Delegates, County Commissioners, or other local offices. These down ballot winners then become the MD GOP's real bench. Because of redistricting and Martin O'Malley's political gerrymandering of state legislative districts the MD GOP is going to have a tough time holding onto it's meager 12 seats in the 47 seat state Senate. Falling below 12 seats would be a devastating blow to the morale of any already suffering party. The GOP needs to reach 19 seats in the Senate to truly have an impact as that's the number needed to filibuster. Gerrymandering makes that a tall order, improbable but not impossible - especially if the top of the ticket is strong. But at present, the state Republican party is just a mess. And so long as it is a mess the bench of candidates will be thin. Folks like Red Maryland's Greg Kline, Mark Newgent, and Brian Griffith have been offering the state GOP a lot a free and good advice, but I'm not sure the state party is organized enough to listen.

Though Kline may think that I'm some left-wing Huffington Post reading academic, the reality is that I'm an unaffiliated voter who would very much like to see Maryland's one party monopoly broken. I may disagree with the GOP on a host of issues, but the same can be said of the Democrats. I have no preference for one party over the other. What I do want is a vibrant and open debate of the issues, I want deliberation and not one party hegemony. I want the 40% of Marylanders who consistently vote against the Democrats to have a voice equal to their numbers, instead of the gerrymandered mess that has effectively held the GOP to less than 30% of the seats in the General Assembly and only 1 seat among the states congressional delegation. Republicans have figured out how to win and be relevant in states like New Jersey and Massachusetts. There simply no excuse for the party's continued problems in Maryland.

Maryland 2014: Part 1 - The Democrats Running for Governor

It's been awhile since I've written about the 2014 gubernatorial contest in Maryland. In a post last September, I profiled the four men most likely to seek the nomination - Attorney General Doug Gansler, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, Comptroller Peter Franchot, and Howard County Exec. Ken Ulman. I mentioned Heather Mizeur as a "rumored to be thinking about it" candidate. I argued then, that Brown was the odds on favorite to win the nomination.

"If the 2014 primary were like a typical Democratic primary in recent years with only two credible candidates then certainly Gansler would be the favorite - but in a three man race his odds drop considerably and in a 4 man race a clear new favored candidate emerges from the pack - Lt. Governor Anthony Brown."

Much has changed since September... and yet very little has changed.

Two of the expected candidates are now out of the race.  The Franchot folks always understood thy had a very narrow path to victory, it was a path that relied on moderate and conservative Democrats outside of the I-95 corridor. The Franchot team understood that if Gansler and Brown split the progressive vote, and Gansler, Brown, and Ulman divided the I-95 vote, and if Franchot could compete with Gansler in their shared home turf of Montgomery County, and if Franchot could win over Democrats from parts of the state that feel ignored by the Democratic party, then Franchot could build an electoral plurality in a multicandidate race. It was a path to victory that needed every "and if" to fall into place. In the end, Franchot decided that he enjoyed being Comptroller too much to risk everything on a series of and ifs. It was probably the correct call. I had written and spoken favorably of Franchot and make no secret of the fact that he would have been my preferred candidate. He openly and passionately challenged the Democratic party status quo in the state and would have been the candidate most likely to embrace the types of good government reforms so desperately needed in Annapolis.

As for Ken Ulman, there had been rumblings for some time that the Brown campaign was working feverishly behind the scenes to get Ulman on board as Brown's running mate. Those rumblings turned out to be true and the Brown/Ulman team have been traveling the state fundraising and securing nominations all summer long. At first blush, this was a smart move by Brown. Not only did he eliminate a dynamic and appealing opponent - someone with the only real claim to the Baltimore region, which can really matter in a primary contest - Brown also absorbed Ulman's campaign war chest, and Ulman had proven to be a damn good fundraiser. Going into this contest, Gansler enjoyed a tremendous cash advantage, but the merging of the Brown and Ulman coffers largely eradicated that advantage. I'm still not certain if taking Ulman out of the race was the best option for Brown - I argued in January of last year that Brown's chances of securing the nomination increased with each additional candidate in the race. By tapping Ulman, Brown may have created a simple two man contest between himself and Gansler. In that scenario, Gansler has an advantage.


But of course, it's not a simple two man race; rather it's shaping up to be a pretty exciting three person race. Heather Mizeur officially announced that she was joining the fray just one month ago this week, but her intentions were clear months beforehand. Mizeur is among the very few women to ever seek the nomination for Maryland governor, and if elected she would be the Free States's first female governor. Mizeur is also one of only 8 openly gay members of the Maryland General Assembly. If she were to win the nomination, she would become the first openly LGBT candidate to run for governor on a major party ticket. Given the recent swings in public opinion in favor of marriage equality, Maryland's legalization of same-sex marriage (uphold by the voters at referendum), and the election of Tammy Baldwin to the U.S. Senate, Mizeur must feel a little bit of the winds of change at her back.

There are still the occasional rumblings about another candidate hopping into the race (Dutch Ruppersberger anyone?), and there's certainly plenty of time for a new candidate to get in - but one is left with a strong sense that the Democratic field is set - Doug Gansler, Anthony Brown, and Heather Mizeur.

As everyone understands, Maryland is a heavily Democratic state. The party claims 56% of registered voters to the GOP's 27%. As a result, the Democratic nominee is the odds on favorite to become the states next governor). So who will win the Democratic primary?

Last year, many a political observer assumed Attorney General Doug Gansler was the favorite. He had an impressive campaign war chest and had twice run and won statewide. The GOP didn't even bother challenging him in 2010 (I'll more to say about the GOP in a follow-up post). Gansler enjoys high name recognition and his work on behalf of the Chesapeake Bay and his official opinion that the state would recognize same sex marriages performed out of state have endeared him to state progressives - crucial in a primary. And Gansler hails from Maryland's most populated county - Montgomery. After the disaster that was the 2012 session of the Maryland General Assembly, Gansler's stock rose significantly. Governor O'Malley absorbed a tremendous amount of criticism (deservedly so) for the failure that was the 2012 session. Being part of the O'Malley team was no feather in Brown's cap that year.

But O'Malley quickly realized that the bad press from the failed session was harming his own presidential ambitions. Over the summer of 2012 he called two special sessions, one to settle the state budget and the other to address the issue of casino gambling in the state. O'Malley took control of the casino issue and worked hard at crafting a proposal acceptable to the House and Senate. Then, in November of 2012 O'Malley found himself symbolically on the ballot in Maryland not once, but four times. The casino measured passed by the Assembly was subject to voter approval, and three laws - marriage equality, the MD DREAM Act, and the new Congressional district map - were successfully petitioned to referendum. Would the voters rebuke O'Malley? The answer was a resounding "No." O'Malley carried the day on all 4 issues.

Then, the 2013 legislative session came and went with nary a hitch. The Assembly tackled several high profile issues - including a gas tax increase, a ban on the death penalty, off-shore wind development, and comprehensive gun control. It was an incredible string of progressive victories. Things were clearly breaking in favor of Brown.  He received O'Malley's endorsement early and since naming Ulman as his running mate Brown has collected an impressive portfolio of endorsements. In addition to O'Malley, he's been endorsed by Senate President Mike Miller, U.S. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, the Laborers International Union of North America, VoteVets.Org... the list goes on. In fact, almost daily I receive a press release from the Brown campaign announcing a new endorsement.

Meanwhile, Gansler has not formally announce a candidacy and has offered no hints regarding a running mate. Gansler, and his people, argue that no one other than political insiders are paying any attention to the 2014 race at this point. As such, there is little to be gained from making an announcement, picking a running mate, or collecting endorsements. There is some truth to Gansler's argument. Most Marylanders are not paying any attention to the 2014 race, but Gansler's audience is not most Marylanders. In 2010, only 25% of registered Democrats turned out for the primary. Primary voters tend to be the most dedicated and attentive voters - and these folks are likely paying some attention to the 2014 contest.

But for Gansler, waiting may well be the best course of action. To the extent that voters are tuning out the campaign, Brown is making headlines and receiving largely positive press during the time of year when folks are more concerned with their kid's summer camp and weekend traffic on the Bay bridge. By the time they snap back into reality in September (when Gansler makes his campaign official), Brown will have burned through most of his high profile endorsements and his naming of Ulman will be a memory. When Gansler announces his candidacy, how will Brown/Ulman counter program? When Gansler announces his running mate, how will Brown/Ulman counter program? When Gansler receives endorsement, how will Brown/Ulman counter program? The Brown campaigns needs to worry about peaking too soon and about burning through their positive press stories too early in the cycle. If Brown comes to be seen as the obvious frontrunner, the press will inevitably start looking for his weaknesses and any sign of weakness will be exaggerated.

There is another silver lining for Gansler. Brown is running as the consummate political insider, he is collecting endorsement after endorsement from the Democratic party establishment. He cannot claim to be anything but the candidate of the status quo. Maybe that's not so damaging in Democrat-friendly Maryland, but public confidence in government is at an all time low and Maryland has been criticized for it's lack of transparency and accountability in government. Being seen as the establishment's candidate may not be a winning strategy in 2014.  Brown has created an opportunity for Gansler to run as the only candidate who can shake up the system and claim some level of independence. The Attorney General is free from gubernatorial influence and with all of the high profile endorsements flowing to Brown - who in the establishment would Gansler feel beholden too?

The establishment is circling the wagons around "their guy" Anthony Brown, the guy who won't rock boat. But then there's Doug Gansler - as Attorney General he was more than happy to rock things. He was making progress protecting the Chesapeake while the General Assembly was waffling on the permeable surface tax, he was fighting for consumer protection long before the White House decided we needed a federal consumer protection agency. And same-sex marriage? Gansler was ahead of everyone else in Maryland on that issue. At a time when Team O'Malley and the General Assembly would rather have ignored the issue, Gansler stated that Maryland would recognize marriages from other states. It would be reasonable to argue that he forced the rest of MD's Democratic establishment to get on board.

If I'm a member of the Gansler team (and I'm not), I'm making the case that on issue after issue, Gansler was doing what he believed to be right for all Marylanders and not just what was best for the party establishment. I'd ask the question, do Marylanders want a tested and proven agent of positive change or a foot soldier for the status quo?

It remains to be seen whether Gansler will choose that strategy, but, while Brown has been travelling the state collecting endorsements Gansler has been traveling the state talking policy specifics as part of a “Building Our Best Maryland” tour. And Gansler has not chosen to narrow his focus to just feel-good policy issues. In a recent forum he tackled the weighty issue of prisoner recidivism in Maryland. It's a sad fact that our prisons are good at only one thing - creating repeat offenders. Once someone has served their sentence it is extremely difficult for them to return to society as productive members and many get caught in a prison revolving door. Gansler has proposed a number of significant changes for Maryland - including transitional housing assistance, hiding criminal convictions from potential employers if someone has been "clean" for 5 years, and better training and rehabilitation while in prison. It's never popular to talk about investing in those convicted of crimes, but it's the only way we're going to tackle our prison crowding problem where over 40% of released prisoners return to prison. Reducing recidivism would mean reducing crime.

Gansler has also proposed changes that would make Maryland government more transparent. Last year, the Center for Public Integrity released its “Corruption Risk Report Card” on which Maryland received an overall grade of D- and ranked 40th among states. As reported in the Washington Post, Maryland received an F on public access to information and legislative accountability. Among other reforms, Gansler envisions the creation of an inspector general who would facilitate access to public information. A proven agent of positive change or a foot soldier for the status quo?

And then there is Heather Mizeur. Mizeur was largely ignored by the Maryland political press until she shocked everyone by coming in second in a straw poll of Western Maryland Democrats. Mizeur has decided to run a rather unorthodox campaign. But Mizeur's decision to focus her campaign events around the themes of community and service may well resonate with the folks who get out and vote in primaries. So far her campaign events have collected supplies for a women's shelter, restored a playground, and cleaned a marshland. Though some Democratic party insiders have grumbled that she is too young and has jumped the queue by getting into this race only to serve some future political ambitions, Mizeur has countered that if she loses the primary she's done with politics. Mizeur is from Montgomery county - a crucial and vote rich county and she has strong connections to the Eastern Shore as she and her spouse operate an organic farm there.

Though Mizeur makes headlines as an LGBT candidate, her record on issues hits the mark for many a party activist. Mizeur was central in the effort to allow college age kids in MD  to remain on their parents insurance - well before this became the law nationally. She is a passionate defender of the environment and leading voice in the effort to prevent natural gas extraction via fracking in Western Maryland. In addition to her policy positions, Mizeur offers Maryland women a chance to finally crack the Annapolis glass ceiling AND she offers Maryland progressives a chance to say that we have turned the page on the issue of LGBT equality. Despite the challenges she'll face, I consider her to be the most exciting candidate in the race - and in a primary, excitement matters.

So who has the upper hand? I still argue the odds favor Brown. Having the party establishment behind you is a big deal in a low turn-out election where getting people to the polls is all that matters. Gansler and Mizeur will divide the Montgomery county electorate while Brown will be uncontested in his home turf of PG county. Though running mates rarely impact an election, Ulman certainly can help Brown in Howard county and Brown's connection to O'Malley will help in Baltimore City. In a three way race it can take as little as 33.4% of the vote to win - Brown is the candidate most likely to cross that mark in a multi-candidate race.

If Maryland voters feel O'Malley fatigue in 2014, then Brown could suffer the consequences. And Gansler will need to run against the O'Malley record on several key issues if he's going to damage Brown.

For Mizeur, her best hope is an all out negative battle between Brown and Gansler (that's also the GOP's best hope). In the midst of such a battle, her focus on community and service may offer the perfect alternative.

So, much has changed since I last looked at the 2014 race... and yet, nothing much has changed.

Next, I'll look at the MD GOP and the candidates for governor (announced and unannounced), a recent Red Maryland poll offers some interesting results.

Maryland 2014 and the Men Who Would Be Governor

The 2014 Democratic primary for Maryland governor may seem a long way off, but for the men interested in the nomination it looms large on the horizon. With all eyes turned to the 2012 legislative session of the General Assembly and Martin O'Malley's high profile gambit for a resume' of actual accomplishments I think it's worth taking a moment to look at the men who wish to succeed him.

At present, there are likely to be four big names (and what a rarity that is - four credible candidates) seeking the Democratic nomination, Attorney General Doug Gansler, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, Comptroller Peter Franchot, and Howard County Executive Ken Ulman.

Only two Republicans have won statewide election since 1980 (can you name the two?) so the odds do favor a Democrat winning the general election, regardless of the Republican nominee.

Though many observers of state politics argue Gansler is the clear frontrunner, I would suggest that conclusion is anything but certain. If the 2014 primary were like a typical Democratic primary in recent years with only two credible candidates then certainly Gansler would be the favorite - but in a three man race his odds drop considerably and in a 4 man race a clear new favored candidate emerges from the pack - Lt. Governor Anthony Brown. In a multi-candidate race featuring Brown, the closest competitor will be the candidate who can appeal to rural Marylanders in Western Maryland, the Eastern Shore, and Southern Maryland - that candidate is not (at least not yet) Doug Gansler.

Quick Candidate Profiles

Gansler
In a recent profile, Gansler described himself as "fiscally conservative" and “an unabashed, pro-business, moderate centrist Democrat.” Though this may be the image Gansler would want to project in a general election, his record and reputation suggest otherwise. In 2008, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the 2nd Amendment right to keep and bear arms was an individual right and that states were limited in their power to restrict such rights. Prior to the ruling, Gansler joined a friend-of-the-court brief submitted to the Supreme Court urging the justices not to extend the Second Amendment to the states. During the 2010 legislative session of the General Assembly, Gansler sent waves through Maryland politics when he issued an opinion that Maryland courts would likely recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. As Attorney General, Gansler has made environmental protection a top priority and even created the Attorney General’s Environmental Advisory Council to advise him. In short, Gansler's tenure in office has been marked by the high profile pursuit of very liberal causes. To be fair, Gansler may be fiscally conservative, but there is little opportunity for an Attorney General to establishing those credentials. Make no mistake, Gansler will be the liberal in the 2014 primary. His advisory opinion on Maryland recognizing same-sex marriage, his environmental crusading, and his firm support of gun control would make it impossible for him to claim to be anything but a member of the progressive wing of the Democratic party. That said, Maryland has promoted past Attorneys General - seven have sought the governorship since 1900 and three have been elected. But no Attorney General has made the leap to Government House since 1946 - of the three that have tried since then none succeeded.

Franchot
This brings us to Comptroller Peter Franchot. Since early last year, Franchot has wisely used his role as Comptroller to lay claim to the banner of true fiscal conservative. Last summer, Franchot warned Maryland (but especially the Governor and General Assembly) that the state had become too reliant on the federal government for jobs and economic growth. What sounded like a wise warning in August now seems especially prescient given the failure of the Deficit Reduction Supercommittee. Maryland is uniquely dependent on the federal government. Fully 1/5 of the state workforce is employed by government at some level and 30% of the state's budget revenue comes from the federal government. If federal budget cuts are truly in our future, Maryland's golden days of low unemployment and job growth may be gone. More recently, Franchot criticized Governor O'Malley's FY 2013 budget proposal and argued for a moratorium on tax increases until the economy improves. In comments last week before the Maryland Association of Realtors Franchot singled out the Governor's plan to phase-out the mortgage interest deduction for upper middle class earners as especially troubling in a state with a still recovering housing market. In perhaps the most significant sign that Franchot will wear the banner of true fiscal conservative his warnings against state borrowing recently earned the scorn of the Baltimore Sun editorial page (a distinction likely to be viewed as a badge of honor by voters outside of the I-95 corridor). Franchot also has history on his side, of the six Comptrollers who have been elected in the past 90 years three were elected governor after serving as Comptroller. Marylanders tend to trust their Comptrollers.

Ulman
Howard County Executive Ken Ulman will have the benefit of being the only chief executive in the race and he will be the only candidate from the Baltimore region (authentically given that Ulman's parents are from Baltimore). Since the 1950s, 8 of the last 10 governors have come from Baltimore City or County. Five of the last 10 were county executives or mayors - suggesting Maryland voters like to elect candidates with executive experience. Though once the political power base in the state, Baltmore City and the larger Baltimore region have witnessed the state's population and political power as it slowly, but clearly migrates to the DC suburbs in Montgomery and Prince Georges Counties. The greater Baltimore region of Baltimore City, as well as Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Howard County is home to 41% of the state's registered Democrats. Ulman has been in the headlines recently criticizing the Governor's proposal to shifted millions of dollars in teacher's pension costs to the counties in an effort to balance the state budget. Ulman cannot easily be defined as liberal or conservative - he is, dare I say, post-partisan. Even as he criticized the Governor's budget, he has been lauded for the county's innovative health reform efforts and Ulman was central to the state's receipt of a federal grant to bring broadband to the state.

Brown
Then there is Anthony Brown. Brown has great resume' for governor. Brown is an Iraq War veteran and Bronze Star recipient, he served nearly 3 decades in the Army and is a Colonel in the Army Reserves. Brown represented legislative district 25 in Prince Georges County from 1998-2006 and was House Majority Whip. The downside for Brown is that even with that incredible resume' many folks in Maryland wonder just who he is. If his goal is to become the next governor of the state, he has not used his time as Lt. Governor as well as one might expect. Brown also has the weight of history working against him. Since the office of Lt. Governor was restored in 1970 no Lt. Governor has gone on to be elected Governor. In fact, only one has even managed to secure the party nomination. That said, he will undoubtedly lay an early claim to the significant African-American vote in the primary. African-Americans compose roughly a third of the Maryland population and a quarter of the registered voters, and are the most reliable Democratic voting bloc - yet the Democratic Party has never nominated and run an African-American candidate at the top of any statewide ticket. Brown is an accomplished legislator with an impressive resume and I believe that African-American voters would be quick to rally around his candidacy.

Looking at the Candidates Strengths/Weaknesses

Gansler and Liberals
In a primary, typically the most committed and partisan activist vote. For Democrats that would mean liberals. In the 2008 presidential primary, 52% of the Democrats voting described themselves as liberal. Laying claim to 52% of the electorate in a 4 man race is no small accomplishment, but it gets more complicated. A further review of the exit poll data suggests that no small share of the Democrats' liberal base is composed of a significant number of African-Americans. This worked out well for Barack Obama as he won 84% of the African-American vote. For Gansler, however, it means the liberal base will be divided and that 52% will be divided between Gansler and Brown - and do not discount Ulman's appeal, especially based on Howard County's health reforms.

Gansler is from Montgomery County and has a record of winning county-wide having served two terms as the states attorney. Montgomery County is home to 16% of the state's registered Democrats. Unfortunately for Gansler, Franchot is also from Montgomery County and represented parts of the county in the General Assembly - so the two men will split the county's votes. Well over a third of the county's registered Democrats are African-Americans and Brown is likely to claim a significant share of them as well.

Brown and African-Americans (please see ***note at end of post)
African-Americans are the Democratic Party's most loyal voting bloc and I believe that the state's many African-American communities will be eager to elect the state's first black chief executive. By my calculation, African-Americans are about 38% of the state's registered Democrats. Barack Obama received 84% of their vote in 2008 and, again based on my own calculations, Kweisi Mfume received about 85% of the African-American vote in the the 2006 Democratic Senate primary. This represents a significant advantage for Brown. In the 2006 primary (which featured a competitive nomination race for Comptroller and Senator) only 30% of state Democrats voted. By my estimation, African-Americans were roughly 38% of that turn-out.

Based on current voter registration totals, a 30% primary turn-out would translate into 577,600 voting Democrats. Assuming African-American and white turn-out is similar then 38%, or 219,500, of the Democrats would be African American and based on past elections Brown would win 84% of their vote, or 184,400 votes - 32% of the total votes cast. So before including his share of the white vote, Brown receives nearly 1/3 of the vote in a 4 man race.... that's quite an advantage.

Ulman and the Baltimore Region 
Those same 2008 exit polls show 48% of voters came from the greater Baltimore region. So being the Baltimore candidate would be a smart strategic move. No other candidate has a clear claim to the region, but of the 48%, nearly a third were from Baltimore City. Nearly two-thirds of City residents are African-American and that means that some of Ulman's "Baltimore advantage" would be diminished as he loses voters to Brown. That said, Howard County is a swing county in a crucial location. Howard is literally the connective tissue that links the Baltimore region with the DC suburbs in Montgomery and PG. Beyond that, western Howard County links the the urban and suburban I-95 corridor with rural Western Maryland. Additionally, Ulman's efforts in Howard County from the Healthy Howard program to environmental initiatives - such as green buildings - would allow him to challenge Gansler's claim to the liberal base.

In many ways, Howard county encapsulates the diversity (economically, geographically, socially) that make Maryland great. Ulman's ability to win there may speak to an ability to appeal to the diverse elements of Maryland's Democratic electorate. That said, Howard County is one of the wealthiest counties in the nation and that may work against Ulman as he campaigns in Allegany and Garret County in the west or Wicomico in the east - something will be necessary in a 4 person race. Ulman has maintained Howard's AAA bond rating and kept the county's books in balance - but I think he has a better chance of appealing to the party's liberal base than to more conservative Democrats outside the I-95 corridor.

Franchot and Forgotten Maryland
As I consider Franchot's emphasis on fiscal conservatism I am convinced that he has given a great deal of consideration to the 2014 primary as he has adopted a very wise campaign strategy should he run in a 3 or 4 man race for the nomination. As Comptroller, Franchot cannot initiate new programs like a County Executive, he cannot head taskforces like a Lt. Governor, and he cannot wade into high profile cases like an Attorney General. But, the Comptroller of the state of Maryland is uniquely positioned to take on issues of fiscal prudence. His position on the Board of Public Works makes him the equal of the Governor with regard to budget cuts when the Assembly is not in session and that role gives him every right to establish an independent fiscal identity in the state - he was, after all, elected by the voters independent of the Governor. The Comptroller commands a staff of over 1,100 and sits on the capital debt affordability commission, the commission on state debt, and the board of revenue estimates (among others) - those positions, combined with the Board of Public Works make the Comptroller a key point of citizen contact within the state.

Surveying the 2014 primary landscape one can easily see a battle for the I-95 corridor from Baltimore City, southern Baltimore County, north and west Anne Arundel County, as well as Howard, Montgomery and Prince Georges (and northern Charles) counties. Gansler, Ulman and Brown all have advantages that are very much confined to that area - an area home to 81% of the state's Democrats. But that leaves 17 counties and nearly 20% of the Democratic electorate with no champion. Franchot's fiscal conservatism and swipes at the federal dependency of central Maryland can clearly be understood as an appeal to voters outside of the I-95 corridor who often feel overlooked by the state's Democratic party.

The Role of "the Rest of Maryland" in 2014
All four potential candidates have some claim to the central Maryland I-95 corridor. Gansler, Brown, and Franchot hold statewide office, Brown hails from Prince Georges County, Franchot and Gansler have electoral histories in Montgomery County. Ulman represents Howard. The I-95 corridor may include 81% of the primary electorate, but 81% divided among 4 candidates comes out to about 20.25% per man - in a four person race someone needs to top 25% statewide. That's why rural Maryland is likely to figure far more predominantly in 2014 than it has in any recent Democratic primary.

At present, none of the 4 expected candidates has natural claim to voters in Western or Southern Maryland or on the Eastern Shore. Since none of the candidates are native to those parts of Maryland, the candidate who can find a message that resonates will be best positioned to claim those voters. For Gansler, I do not see how he overcomes his perceived liberalism. Further, he risks alienating his liberal base by trying to present himself as a fiscal conservative. Brown will be harmed by his affiliation with O'Malley. If this year's budget is approved then Brown will be part of an administration that was responsible for two significant tax increases (2007 and 2012) and that "declared war" on rural Maryland. Ulman's innovations in Howard County could become liabilities in rural Maryland where the median income is often half that of Howard County. For Franchot, his past as a liberal Democrat in the General Assembly is likely to be overshadowed by his more recent work as Comptroller. Because it is a fiscal position he does not have the added baggage of social issues to work against him in rural Maryland.

In a four way race featuring Brown, Franchot, Gansler, and Ulman the simple math favors Brown owing to the power of African-American voters in the Democratic electorate. But Brown is likely to be harmed in many parts of the state by his association with O'Malley. Gansler has the money and clearly the ambition but it's difficult to see how Gansler broadens his appeal beyond white liberals in central Maryland - and even among them he will face competition. Ulman brings established credentials as an executive and the promise of a post-partisan age, but will need to establish statewide name recognition beyond the orbit of Howard County. Franchot has positioned himself as the candidate of fiscal constraint and is clearly attempting to create a relationship with parts of Maryland long overlooked by Democrats and Democratic candidates. If Franchot can become the candidate of "the rest of Maryland" while dividing the I-95 corridor vote, he may emerge atop the pack.

The 2014 race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination will be anything but boring, recently released campaign fundrasing numbers show that all four men will have the money needed to compete. Each of the possible candidates bring much to the table in the form of strengths and limitations. Each can lay claim to crucial elements of the Democratic electorate. At present, Gansler has far more money, Brown has a crucial voting bloc and an incredible resume', Ulman has the experience as an executive, and Franchot has a message that truly resonates in the current environment.

I believe that a four man race favors Brown, but he may have to overcome O'Malley fatigue and an electorate hard-pressed to think of an O'Malley accomplishment. In that event, or if this turns into a three person race, the candidate who can consolidate the voters outside the I-95 corridor is likely to emerge the victor.

*** I hasten to add a very important caveat. In no way do I mean to suggest that African-Americans would support a candidate simply based on skin color. Republican Michael Steele's inability to make in-roads with African-American voters in 2006 and Republican Charles Lollar's similar inability in the 5th Congressional District in 2010 clearly demonstrate that African-American voters care more about issues than about race. What Obama in 2008 and Mfume in 2006 show, however, is that when faced with a choice of candidates who share similarly acceptable policy views African-American voters overwhelmingly support the African-American candidate. An easily justified choice given the population's history of being denied representation.

Peter Franchot, the Progressive Conservative

I continue to be impressed with Comptroller Peter Franchot and his maneuvering toward the 2014 gubernatorial contest. With the redistricting "battle" behind us and the special legislative session of the General Assembly adjourned, all attention has shifted to the upcoming regular session and the question of tax increases. A panel convened by Governor O’Malley and tasked with identifying new revenue streams to pay for transportation infrastructure improvements has endorsed a $0.15 a gallon increase in the state's gas tax, they also endorsed significant increases in automobile titling and registration fees and a doubling of the vehicle emissions inspection fee. Not to be outdone, A state task force is considering doubling and then tripling the state's so-called "flush tax" from its current $30 per year to $90 by 2015.

In response to these proposals, Franchot has called for a two year freeze on all new taxes and fees to “give businesses and consumers time to catch their breath.”

A few months ago, Franchot made headlines arguning Maryland needed to be less reliant on the federal sector for job creation. I argued at the time that it was a smart move and showed Franchot was trying to position himself as the conservative option in a Democratic gubernatorial primary that is likely to feature two well-known, and progressive, Democrats - Attorney General Doug Gansler and Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown.

Democrats' routinely win about 60% of the statewide vote so winning the Democratic primary is a doorway to the governorship. Gansler is an unabashed liberal and Brown, the state's first African-American Lt. Governor and an accomplished legislator with an impressive resume, will undoubtedly lay an early claim to the significant African-American vote.  So Gansler and Brown will split two of the most reliable segments of the Democratic primary voting population - liberals and African-Americans.

This creates an opening for a moderate to conservative Democrat to lay claim to white, moderate and conservative Democrats, of whom there are many in Maryland.

But the situation is even better for Franchot. The three Democratic power centers in Maryland are Baltimore City, Montgomery county, and Prince Georges county. Democrats routinely lose most of the other counties in the state, but win those population centers. In a primary contest, a candidate who could claim those regions would be unbeatable - but if they are divided then the state's remaining, and far more conservative counties, become crucial.  Brown hails from Prince Georges county and if he is able to consolidate the African-American vote then he is likely to claim Prince Georges county and Baltimore City - much as Kweisi Mfume did in the 2006 Senate primary against Ben Cardin. Cardin bested Mfume by winning Montgomery county, Baltimore county and Anne Arundel county by nearly 2-to-1 margins.

Gansler and Franchot are from Montgomery county and both have held elective office there. They would likely split the county's vote. If one were to return to the 2006 Senate primary, a cursory review of election results would seem to suggest that Gansler and Franchot splitting the vote outside of Baltimore City and Prince Georges county would benefit Brown. But the 2006 Senate primary was missing something, something Franchot is looking to bring to the 2014 gubernatorial contest - a moderate/conservative option for Democratic primary voters. In 2006, Democratic turnout in more conservative counties (Allegheny, Carroll, Frederick, Washington) was below overall turnout. If Franchot offers moderate and conservative Democrats a reason to vote in a primary contest there is reason to suspect that turn-out in more conservative parts of the state would increase - this presents Franchot with his path to victory.

The greatest obstacle to Franchot would be the entry into the race of another moderate/conservative Democrat - like Howard county Executive Ken Ulman. Not only would Ulman lay claim to Howard county's crucial bloc of voters, he would divide the moderate/conservative primary vote. If that were to be the case, Brown would cruise to victory.

Franchot has one path to the nomination and it requires an undivided appeal to the state's sizeable bloc of moderate and conservative Democrats. His opposition to new tax increases stakes an early claim to those voters and is a wise move.

That said, there is cause for progressives to rally behind him as well. All of the tax increases currently being debated are incredibly regressive taxes that will disproportionately harm low-income and working class families. Raising taxes on gas and increasing fees for auto registration is not like raising the cigarette tax - people can simply decide to stop smoking to avoid that tax. But there is no substitute for gas and in most parts of Maryland public transportation is not an option. Worse, in a weak economy, people have to take jobs wherever they can find them and in a weak housing market they cannot simply sell their home and move to where jobs may be - so they need to drive to work and sometimes they need to drive a considerable distance (especially if you live in rural areas... conservative, rural areas). For low-income and working class families, cars and gasoline are not conveniences, they are crucial lifelines.

That the Governor and the General Assembly would even consider such a regressive assault on the economic well-being of working families is unconscionable. Democrats raising taxes and fees on working families is no less egregious than Republican attempts to cut services to these folks. But Democrats are avoiding more progressive forms of taxation and targeting the poor for the same reason Republicans refuse to consider tax increases for the wealthy and cut programs for the poor - the wealthy vote, but turn-out drops sharply as income levels fall.

Of course the counter argument would be that the new taxes and fees would effect everyone, rich and poor alike. But the poor lose a much greater share of their income to excise taxes and fees. Although state and county-level data is difficult to obtain, federal tax data does demonstrate the regressive nature of excise taxes in general and on fuel specifically. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bottom 20% of wage earners pay nearly 1% of their income on excise taxes on gasoline and motor fuel alone. By contrast, the top 20% pay only 0.3% of their income on such taxes. When all federal excise taxes are considered, the proportional burden placed on the bottom 20% rises to nearly 2.8%, while the burden placed on the top 20% is only 0.5%. A 3% burden compared to a 0.5% burden... that's the very definition of regressive folks.


Franchot's latest smart move is doubly smart - it appeals to more conservative minded Democrats by calling for greater fiscal responsibility AND it may play well with true progressives offended by the state's attempt to balance its books on the backs of the poor.

Well played Mr. Franchot.

Franchot Makes A Smart Move for 2014

In an interesting statement at the Board of Public Works meeting, State Comptroller Peter Franchot said "We have become uniquely tied at the hip or joined at the hip to the federal government," and lawmakers need to rededicate Maryland toward "a business climate that inspires, promotes and rewards private-sector investment in Maryland."

In stark contrast to Governor Martin O'Malley's frequent lauding of Maryland's reliance on federal jobs Franchot further argued "We as a state simply can't allow ourselves to become complacent and allow the federal government to become the economic engine of first and last resort in Maryland."

Franchot's comments sound like something that might have been said by Republican Bob Ehrlich during the 2010 gubernatorial contest - Ehrlich lost the race by 14.5 percentage points, but I think these comments signal a wise strategic move by Franchot as he looks to the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary.

At present, there are likely to be at least three big names seeking the Democratic nomination, Attorney General Doug Gansler, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, and Franchot.

Odds favor a Democrat winning the general election, regardless of the Republican nominee, so winning the Democratic primary is just a doorway to the governorship.

If Franchot faces Gansler and Brown then embracing a moderate to conservative agenda will help him.

Gansler is an unabashed liberal, his advisory opinion on Maryland recognizing same-sex marriage, his environmental crusading, and his firm support of gun control would make it impossible for him to claim to be anything but a member of the progressive wing of the Democratic party. Brown will undoubtedly lay an early claim to the significant African-American vote in the primary. African-Americans compose roughly a third of the Maryland population and are the most reliable Democratic voting bloc - yet the Democratic Party has never nominated and run an African-American candidate at the top of any statewide ticket. Brown is an accomplished legislator with an impressive resume and I believe that African-American voters would be quick to rally around his candidacy.

So between Gansler and Brown two of the most reliable segments of the Democratic primary voting population will be claimed - liberals and African-Americans. The only way for Franchot to be competitive is to target the folks who would be left out - white, moderate and conservative working class Democrats, of whom there are many in Maryland.

In a three-way race, if Gansler and Brown have split the base vote of the party, Franchot can emerge the victor with no more than 34% of the vote. It's a wise strategy, but also the only strategy available to him.

Only one thing could upend Franchot's approach - Jim Smith. Smith is the former county Executive from Baltimore County and a former judge. He is a moderate Democrat with a base of support in an important part of the state.

If Smith enters the race and Gansler and Brown split the base vote and Franchot and Smith split the moderate to conservative vote then anyone of them could become the nominee with no more that 26% of the vote.

But a four way race like that would likely divide the party. If one of the liberal candidates emerge then Republicans will have a fighting chance in the general election, but if Franchot or Smith win then the race is over - for Democrats to win the general election with a liberal candidate (against an acceptable GOP candidate) they need a unified party.

2014 seems so far away, but Franchot's comments remind us that it's closer than it seems.

Ehrlich's in, but can he win?

The biggest question being asked in Maryland politics has been answered - ending months (or years) of speculation, former Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich has announced that he wants his old job back. 

So now we know that he's back in, the new question is 'can he win?'

Much has changed in Maryland since 2002 when Ehrlich became the state’s first Republican governor since Spiro Agnew in 1966, defeating then Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend by a margin of 51.6% to 47.7%. Some of that change was already taking shape in 2006 when Ehrlich lost his bid for re-election to O’Malley by 52.2% to 46.2%. No doubt Ehrlich and his most trusted advisers have been surveying the Maryland political landscape and though he may not be looking for advice or insight from the halls of academia, I offer it nonetheless. He is free to accept or ignore it. In my examination of his chances, Ehrlich can find cause for concern and for encouragement. Overall, I conclude that Ehrlich’s road back to Annapolis would be steep, but not insurmountable. The success of his journey would likely rely as much on national political trends as it would on issues specific to Maryland.

The Bad News
The first thing Ehrlich must contend with is the overwhelming partisan advantage enjoyed by Democrats in the Free State. As of October 2009 the State Board of Elections reports that 56.8% of registered voters are Democrats, while only 26.6% are Republicans. Approximately 14% are unaffiliated and the rest belong to a scattering of minor parties. That two-to-one party advantage should give any potential GOP candidate pause and the trend in partisan advantage should be cause for nightmares. Since Ehrlich’s victory in 2002, Maryland Democrats have added just over 384,000 new voters to their ranks. During that same time, the Republican ranks grew by only 73,000. Since 2006 Democrats have added 204,000 voters to the party rolls while Republican ranks shrank by 3,000. In 2002, Republicans accounted for 30% of all registered voters and the Democrats 56%. So in the 7 years since Maryland last elected a Republican Democrats have padded there partisan advantage by about 0.8% while Republicans have seen their party position eroded by 3.4%. These numbers should matter to Ehrlich given that he defeated Townsend by only 67,000 votes and lost to O’Malley by nearly 117,000. Any strategist would look to the margin of loss in 2006 and question how it could be overcome when the Democrats’ ranks have been growing at a rate five times that of the Republicans’.

The Good News
Well that’s the bad news for Ehrlich – the Democratic Party has been growing its advantage among registered voters as the GOP has seen its share decline. So what’s the good news? It can be seen in the seemingly daunting statistics that I have already shared. In 2002, Democrats enjoyed a 56% to 30% advantage among Maryland’s registered voters – yet Ehrlich won nearly 52% of the vote. By 2006, Republicans had fallen to 28.9% of registered voters and Ehrlich still managed 46%. Clearly the Democrats’ registration advantage and the GOP’s disadvantage do not directly correlate to final vote totals. In fact, a review of the last four gubernatorial elections in Maryland (1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006) shows that the Democratic candidate typically and significantly under-perform in final vote totals relative to their party registration advantage and the Republican candidate typically and significantly over-performs. It is in that level of over and under performance that Ehrlich can find a path back to Annapolis.

As shown in Table One, in all but one of the last four gubernatorial elections the Democratic candidate received a total statewide vote that was less than their party’s partisan registration advantage among those who voted. In 1994 879,842 Democrats cast ballots, but the Democratic candidate received only 708,094 total votes – the Democrat under-performed relative to partisan advantage receiving a total statewide vote equaling only 80.5% of the total Democrats voting. On the Republican side, GOP candidate always over-perform. Looking again to 1994 only 451,256 Republicans cast votes, but the Republican candidate received 702,101 votes. The Republican candidate over-performed by 155.6%. In all but one election, 1998, the Democratic candidate underperformed and in every election the Republican candidate over-performed. This means that in most of the recent gubernatorial elections many registered Democrats voted Republican as did many of the unaffiliated and third party voters. There is no other way to explain the under and over performance by the parties.

Table One tells us more than just levels of party performance. The grey boxes indicate the winning candidate in each election. As shown, the Democratic Candidate won in 1994, 1998, and 2006. The Republican candidate won in 2002 – the election in which Ehrlich defeated Townsend. So Democrats won 3 of the last 4 gubernatorial elections, but look closely at 1994- the margin of victory is very small. In 1994 Democratic candidate Parris Glenndening defeated Republican Candidate Ellen Sauerbrey by a scant 5,993 votes. In 1998 and 2006 the Democrat victory margins were more significant. The 1994 and 2002 results show that Republicans can win in Maryland so long as the GOP candidate significantly over performs and the Democratic candidate underperforms. In 1994 and 2002 the Democrat under-performed by 80.5% and 83% respectively and GOP candidate over-performed by 155.6% and 156.5%. Conversely, Democrats won decisively in 1998 and 2006 when their candidate performed on par with their partisan share of the electorate and the GOP candidate’s level of over-performance declined.

This is important because of the two election cycles when the Republicans performed best and the Democrats worst – 1994 and 2002. 1994 was the year of the Republican revolution that resulted in the GOP recapturing the House of Representatives and the Senate for the first time in more than a generation. 1994 was the first mid-term election after Bill Clinton’s 1993 election and the election was largely viewed as a referendum on his very uneven first 18 months in office. Likewise, 2002 was a very strong year for Republicans. Since Reconstruction, only three presidents have enjoyed mid-term electoral victories in Congress: FDR in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George W. Bush in 2002. So the 1994 and 2002 mid-terms were very good for Republicans nationally and the strong Republican showing in the Maryland gubernatorial elections were a reflection of that national trend.

In contrast, 1998 and 2006 were good years for Democrats. In 1998 a rebounding and re-elected Bill Clinton saw his party gain seats in the House of Representatives as an impeachment wary public expressed disapproval of Congressional Republicans. Much as in 2006 when a war weary nation stripped Republicans of there majorities in the House and Senate and delivered control to the Democrats. So 1998 and 2006 were good years for Democrats nationally and that translated into the strong showing by Democrats in the Maryland gubernatorial elections.

Implications for Ehrlich
So what does all of this mean for Ehrlich and 2010? It means that Ehrlich has to decide whether he thinks that the 2010 mid-term election will be like 1994 and 2002 – in which case he has a decent chance at reclaiming his old job – or will 2010 be closer to 1998 and 2006 – in which case he should let the Maryland GOP designate some other sacrificial lamb. Once that decision has been made, he must consider whether the Democratic Party’s current registration advantage, or rather the Republican Party’s disadvantage, can be overcome.

Will 2010 be a GOP Year?
If current indicators are to be trusted then the 2010 election is shaping up to be a mid-term in the 1994/2002 mold. Consider the evidence:

• According to most polls, registered voters would prefer a Republican over a Democratic candidate in November. Gallup reports that Republicans have rarely held an advantage on the generic ballot dating back to 1950. Two exceptions occurred in 1994 and 2002.
• Independent and moderate voters are expressing a clear preference for the Republican candidate.
• In 1994, the Republican wave that swept the Democrats out of power in the House and Senate was presaged by Republican gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey in 1993. Republicans scored clear victories in both states in 2009, largely a result strong support from Independents.
• The surprise victory by Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts is also a bad omen for Democrats and offers some hints to how Ehrlich could win in Maryland.
• Add to this the latest edition of the Cook Political Report which has identified 50 competitive House seats heading into 2010. Of the 50, 39 (or 78%) are held by Democrats.

Overcoming the Party Advantage
Even if 2010 mimics 1994 and 2002, Ehrlich must decide whether or not a strong GOP wave would be sufficient to overcome the tremendous registration advantage enjoyed by the Democrats. To try and answer I examined statewide registration and turnout data to estimate how a 1994 or 2002 election would translate with 2009 registration numbers.

Table Two shows Democratic and Republican Party turnout in each of the four elections discussed. Republican turn-out is consistently higher than Democratic, but Republican turnout was highest in the years that Republicans did well and Democratic Turn-out in 1994 and 2002 and was similar to the strong Democratic year in 1998. Democratic turnout was high the years when the party underperformed (Table One), suggesting that higher Democratic turnout may have represented registered Democrats voting Republican.

Using current voter registration data (October 2009) it is possible to model the potential outcome of an Ehrlich/O’Malley rematch based on prior turnout and over/underperformance levels for the Democratic and Republican parties. As of October 2009 there were 1,940,634 registered Democrats and 906,679 registered Republicans in Maryland, a 56.8% to 26.6% advantage.

As shown in Table Three, if the 2010 gubernatorial election follows the turnout and party performance patterns of 1994 or 2002 then Martin O’Malley would still be narrowly re-elected governor. These results reflect not only the increased registration advantaged enjoyed by the Democrats, but also the declining registration among Republicans. Even in a strong Republican year – like those in 1994 and 2002 – Ehrlich would face an uphill struggle against the Maryland Democratic Party’s registration advantage.

Could Ehrlich Win?
Despite the rather dire numbers presented in Table Three, Ehrlich would still have a fighting chance in a re-match with O’Malley. If Ehrlich could match the level of over-performance that he mustered in 2002 he would stand to receive 957,162 votes, and if Democratic underperformance were to fall to 1994 levels O’Malley would receive 952,336 votes. Ehrlich would win, though barely. In the end, Ehrlich’s best hopes lie within data than cannot be incorporated into the turnout models in Table Three. When Ehrlich and O’Malley faced off in 2006 Ehrlich was the Republican incumbent in a year that was bad for Republicans. In 2010, O’Malley will be running as a Democratic incumbent in a year that is likely to be bad for Democrats and incumbents. O’Malley will be running on his record and potentially against a strong anti-incumbent tide.

The latest poll in the Maryland governor's race shows incumbent Martin O'Malley with a 6 point lead over potential rival, and former governor, Bob Ehrlich - the race stands at 49% to 43%. The survey, by Rasmussen Reports, shows that O'Malley simply cannot crack 50% and polling below 50% is a bad sign for any incumbent. A Clarus poll taken late last year showed further danger for O’Malley as it found that only 39% of Maryland voters wanted to see O’Malley re-elected.  When asked to rate O'Malley’s performance on 11 key state issues (taxes, budget, jobs) he only received majority approval on one issue – "living up to high standards of ethics."

There is no question but that Bob Ehrlich would face a steep climb back to Annapolis, he would likely need to ride a national wave similar those in 1994 and 2002. In addition, he would need to overcome the significant registration disadvantage among Republicans statewide, or work to reverse the trend over the next 7 months. He could also hope that many of the newly registered Democrats were motivated by the drama of the 2008 Democratic primary battle and subsequent presidential election and that the Democratic Party’s registration advantage is somewhat overstated. Democratic Party registration swelled in Virginia and New Jersey in 2008 as well, but this did not translate into any appreciable party advantage in the 2009 gubernatorial elections. Democratic Party registration in Maryland grew at a rate of about 2.5% between 1994 and 1998, then by 5% between 1998 and 2002, before swelling to 11% prior to the 2006 gubernatorial and 2008 presidential elections. That excess growth may overstate the Democrats’ true advantage in the state by as many as 200,000 voters. If one were to factor that into the models presented in Table Three then Ehrlich would win under either a 1994 or 2002 scenario by a margin similar to his 2002 victory over Townsend.

Even with the challenges he’ll face, 2010 will likely present his best chance at reclaiming his old job. If Ehrlich waited until 2014 he'd risk that it would be a less hospitable year than 2010. If a Republican is elected president in 2012 then history tells us that 2014 would be a bad year for Republicans. If Obama or another Democrat is elected in 2012, then 2014 may well be a good year for the GOP, but in Maryland Ehrlich would have been out of public office for 8 years and could no longer assume the position of presumptive frontrunner for the nomination. Ehrlich would face much the same challenge if he were to decide to pursue one of Maryland’s Senate seats. Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski is up for re-election in 2010, but nothing less than a GOP tsunami would defeat her. Ehrlich’s next chance would be 2012 when the seat held by Democratic Senator Ben Cardin would be on the ballot – but president Obama would be on the ballot as well in a state that he carried by a margin of 62% to 37%. Anything approaching that margin would likely have some down-ballot coattails and sink any challenge to Cardin or another Democrat.

In the end, for all the challenges and difficulties that he'll face, 2010 presents Ehrlich with his best chance for reclaiming the governorship. For Ehrlich, it's now or never. And he has decided that it's now.

More on the Ehrlich/O'Malley race can be found here and the impact of Enrlich's run on Republican efforts to gain 5 seats and reach 19 (the number needed sustain a filibuster) in the Maryland Assembly can be found here.

George Owings III, O'Malley Challenger, Speaks to Students at St. Mary's College

The following story is posted courtesy of the Point News, the St. Mary's College of Maryland newspaper.

On Wednesday, Feb. 3, George Owings III, a candidate for the upcoming gubernatorial Democratic primary, visited the College. After a lunch with a small number of professors and students, Owings spoke to students in the 300-level political science course Maryland State and Community Politics, fielding questions about Maryland politics and the Maryland budget.

Owings previously served for 17 years in the Maryland House of Delegates representing Southern Maryland, eventually becoming the majority Whip, and he later served under Governors Robert Ehrlich (R) and Martin O’Malley (D) as Secretary of Veterans’ Affairs from 2004-2007. Before his work in state government, he served in the Marine Corps from 1964-1968, and fought in Vietnam from 1965-1968, receiving multiple awards for valor. He was also a mortgage banker, and is currently a member of the Calvert County Democratic Club.

Owings began his talk by pressing the importance of the right to vote.

“I take that right very seriously,” he said, and came prepared with voter registration forms for any student in the class not yet registered to vote.

Owings spoke about the power that the Maryland governor has over the state budget. The Maryland budget is often called the “gubernatorial budget” because the only way in which the legislature can influence the budget is to cut the funds that the governor has allotted. Owings called the power to decide the budget “the single most powerful thing” that a governor could do, excepting redistricting and reapportionment of districts.

After a quick budget overview, Owings then took questions from the class. When asked about why he wanted to become governor, Owings said that while he liked Governor O’Malley on a personal level, he was worried about some of the policies that O’Malley had enacted. Owings was especially worried about Maryland jobs, and criticized O’Malley for looking to bring in workers from outside the state. He also proposed the consolidation of government agencies and criticized the governor for taking “already inflated salaries…and increas[ing] them by some $6,000.” He positioned himself as a more conservative option within the Democratic party, and his Web site advocates fiscal responsibility and a return to center-right positions.

Still, Owings said, “I am a Democrat.”

“The Democratic tent is so big, all are welcome underneath,” he said. He distinguished himself from Republicans by adding, “The Republican party was always for big business. I still represent the working people.”

Owings also provided his positions on a variety of issues when asked by the students.

For example, Owings said that he is a supporter of oyster restoration in the Chesapeake Bay, but he disliked the way in which the restoration would be implemented under the current administration. He said, “Before you do it, shouldn’t you let the watermen know?…They read it in the paper.”

When it came to Owings’ economic solutions for the state of Maryland, he said that raising taxes and cutting spending were not either-or propositions.

“You cannot just cut a budget and make things work,” Owings said. “You have to have a combination of both…You have to raise taxes.” Maryland law requires that the state balance its budget every year; Owings said that as a lawmaker, “you might not like it, but if [the budget]’s balanced, you vote for it.”

Owings also said that he has “always been a supporter of slots,” and saw firsthand the revenue that they could generate when he lived in North Beach in Calvert County. He also said that while he supported slots, common sense had to be used in their placement. Slots in the inner harbor in Baltimore would be a “terrible idea,” but in areas like Laurel, and Pimlico with its racetrack, slots could bring in revenue and also help the horse-racing industry.

When asked about social issues, Owings expressed conservative points of view. Regarding same-sex marriage, he said, “A marriage is between a man and a woman. That is the law in this state,” however, he is a supporter of domestic partnerships, both for people like his brother, who needs medical help that domestic partnerships can allow a healthy partner to provide, but also for loving same-sex couples looking for the closest alternative to marriage.

On abortion, Owings said that he has “come down on the pro-life side” on budget issues regarding abortion funding. Although he supports Roe v. Wade as law, he said, “Personally, I’m a pro-life believer.”

On education, Owings said that “you are entitled in this state and in this country to a free education,” referring to levels K-12, and pointed to the “historic levels” of K-12 funding by the state of Maryland under Governors Glendening and Ehrlich. He said that he “supported charter schools under Glendening, under Ehrlich.” He also supports community colleges, having attended Prince George Community College. In addition, he believes that the No Child Left Behind Act has failed, saying that “When you teach to a test, you’re not teaching basics.”

Political science professor and Director of Public Policy Studies Todd Eberly, who teaches the Maryland State and Community Politics Class, was pleased with the way the talk went.

“He was enthusiastic and engaged and willing to take any question,” Eberly said. “And he was willing to express his opinions, not gloss over them like many who seek public office.”

Eberly added that the fact that Owings is a “Blue Dog Democrat” added to the experience for students.

“Conservative Democrats were crucial to the Democratic party becoming the majority party during the New Deal up through the Johnson administration,” Eberly said. “If the Democratic party wants to maintain its control of Congress, the White House, and the majority of our State Houses, it needs to find a way to balance the demands of liberal, moderate, and even conservative voices within its coalition.”

Eberly added that Governor Martin O’Malley was also invited to speak at the College, but his office declined the invitation but will be sending Maryland Secretary of State John McDonough in O’Malley’s place later in the semester.

Chris Rodkey, a senior in the class, described Owings as “a fiery candidate who definitely has the potential to stir things up in the Democratic primary.”

“He energized me to follow the upcoming campaign and make an informed decision when I vote,” he added.

The Maryland Democratic gubernatorial primary will be held on Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2010. More information about George Owings III can be found on his Web site, http://www.owingsforgovernor.org/index.php .

By Lara Southgate

George Owings III to Speak to Students at St. Mary's College on Feburary 3rd

George Owings III the Secretary of Veterans Affairs under Robert Ehrlich and current challenger to Martin O'Malley for the Democratic nomination for governor will speak to students at St. Mary's College of Maryland on Wednesday February 3rd. Secretary Owings will speak to students studying State and Local Politics in Maryland. The class meets at 2:40 PM in Kent Hall and will be open to the press.

Secretary Owings was a member of the Maryland House of Delegates from 1988 to 2004 and held the position of Majority Whip from 1994-2004 after serving as Deputy Majority Whip from 1992-94.

Owings announced in early January that he would challenge O'Malley for the Democratic nomination. 

Contact Professor Todd Eberly with questions - teeberly@smcm.edu or 240-895-4391.