Familiar Patterns Seen in Maryland Early Voting

After 2 days of early voting I estimated that Maryland was on track for 16% turnout. It ended up at 16.72%. Compared to the 8.33% in 2014, that’s a 100% increase in turnout. That's pretty much the same as the increase in 2016 over 2012. Based on past trends, I believe that we’re on track for overall turnout of 52% or 53%. That would be better than the abnormally low turnout level in 2014, but below 2006 and 2010.

Some folks have been comparing the increase in total early voters between 2014 and 2018. But such a comparison doesn’t actually measure turnout increases. Since 2014, the total number of registered voters in Maryland has increased by 250,000. So to calculate any change in turnout, one needs to compare the percent of registered voters who turned out in 2014 (8.33%) to the percent of early voters who turned out in 2018 (16.72%).

The fact that early vote turnout in 2018 increased by essentially the same rate as 2016 over 2012 offers a reminder that even though early voting doubled in 2016, overall turnout only increased by 5.6%. Early voting turnout is yet to be predictive of overall turnout in Maryland.

The partisan breakdown of early voting is in line with expectations based on prior elections. Democrats were 64% of early voters. This is common in early voting in Maryland. Democrats were 65% of early voters in 2016 and 62% of early voters in 2014. But once Election Day voters were included in the counts, Democrats were 56% & 57% of overall voters, respectively. In other words, Democrats vote early at a higher rate than do other voters.

Looking at the early vote totals by gender also reveals similar patterns. Women cast 57% of the early vote in 2018 as compared to 56% in 2014. Their high watermark was in 2016 when they accounted for 59% of early voters.

Competitive County Executive races appear to have driven turnout above the statewide total in Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Howard County, and Montgomery County. The contest between Jesse Colvin and Andy Harris may have helped boost turnout in the counties of the 1st Congressional District - but it's worth noting that Eastern Shore counties have traditionally outpaced the rest of the state in early voting.

Early voting turnout in Western Maryland was low - and it usually is. Baltimore City lagged behind the statewide total - and it usually does. Prince Georges County started out with lackluster turnout, but finished strong and above the statewide total. This is a promising sign for Ben Jealous because Prince Georges County is likely to offer his greatest source of voters.

Same Day voter registration was not a big hit during early voting. Out of the 661,000 early voters only 3,700 registered on-site. That's about one half of 1%. It's likely that folks were not aware of the same day registration option. I'd expect to see more people take advantage of it in the future as they become more aware - much as better awareness of early voting has led to increased turnout in successive elections.

What does all of this mean for the outcome of the governor's race between Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous? Who knows! The early voting patterns are so in line with past early voting patterns that it would be folly to read too much into them. From the very beginning of this election the polls have clearly indicated that the outcome will be determined by Democratic voters and their willingness to crossover and vote for Hogan. Polls since August have consistently shown Hogan receiving support from 30-38% of Democrats. When Hogan won in 2014 it's estimated that nearly 25% of Democrats voted for him. So Ben Jealous needs to have Democratic voters "come back home" and vote for their party. In the end, Jealous needs to hold Hogan to no more than 25% of Democrats. That's a tall order, but the last two weeks of controversy surrounding President Trump may well encourage many Democrats to cast a vote against Trump and his party.

We'll know all of the answers on Tuesday night!

The Hogan/Jealous Election will be Decided by Crossover Voters

In several prior posts I have offered models for the Hogan/Jealous election based on Absentee ballot requests, prior election trends, and allocation of voters based on polling data. In this post, I want to look at all of the early votes and all of the Absentee requests collectively to see if they suggests a Blue Wave is building in Maryland. The Good folks over at Seventh State have already poked some holes in the Blue Wave argument. It's true that early voting is on track to be double what it was in 2014, but that's hardly surprising. Early voting doubled between 2012 and 2016 as well. But that dramatic increase between 2012 and 2016 did not result in a boost in overall turnout. Likewise, 2014 is on track to see turnout at or just below the 2010 level.

The key for this election isn't turnout, it's Democratic crossover voters. Polls taken since August have consistently shown Hogan dominating among Republican voters, winning the vast majority of unaffiliated voters, and receiving the support of between 30 and 37% of Democratic voters. It's easy to apply those partisan breakdowns to the total number of ballots cast or requested as of 10/29/2018. The results are presented in the table below.

If Hogan receives the high end level of support among Democrats then he would theoretically lead among the early votes and absentees by a margin of 53.9% to 43.2%. If Hogan's support among Democrats is at the low end, then the margin would fall to 49.4% to 47.6%.

Under either scenario the news is bad for Jealous because Democrats tend to dominate the early vote. In 2014 and 2016 Democrats accounted for 63% of the early vote, but only 55% of the total vote once Election Day was included. In 2014, Anthony Brown won the early vote by 9 points, but ultimately lost by 5 points. So the early numbers are likely to have the best results for Jealous. In fact, if I allocate the early vote to Jealous, based on Brown's 2014 support and to Hogan based on his 2014 support, then Jealous moves in a 5 point lead - as compared to the 9 point lead that Brown had. 

If the polls are right, and many Democrats intend to vote for Hogan, then all of the focus on turnout has just been background noise.

The 2018 election is unlikely to be determined by turnout. It's going to be determined by how many Democrats crossover and vote for Hogan. If the crossover vote is anywhere near 30% then Hogan wins regardless of turnout. It's not enough for Jealous that Democrats turnout, those Democrats need to come home to their party when they fill in their ballot.  

Updated: Maryland Absentee Ballot Requests May Not Be Good News for Jealous

Originally published on October 11, 2018. Post has been updated to include Absentee Ballots submitted through October 22, 2018.

Faced with daunting poll numbers that suggest Larry Hogan holds a steady double digit lead over Ben Jealous, Maryland Democrats have looked for silver linings wherever they can. In a press release today, they touted an increase in Democratic absentee ballot requests relative to 2014. While it's true that Democratic absentee ballot requests are up significantly, ballot request are up among Republican and unaffiliated voters as well and in 2014, Republicans were more likely to return those ballots.

But the bigger problem for Democrats is the significant cross-over voting suggested by the polls taken thus far in the governors race. According to the most recent polls, Hogan is drawing support from about 33-35% of Democratic voters. Jealous, on the other hand, is only receiving support from about 5% of Republican voters. Among unaffiliated voters, Hogan is supported by 64% to Jealous' 31%. That means that while Hogan will win the lion's share of the Republican and unaffiliated vote, Jealous will share a significant chunk of the Democratic vote with Hogan, while receiving little from Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

It's fairly easy to apply those partisan levels of support to the absentee ballot requests. If you remove the undecided voters from the poll (there aren't many) and use the Gonzales Poll as a guide, then Jealous receives 60% of the Democratic vote, 5.5% of the Republican vote, and 31% of the unaffiliated vote. Hogan receives 37.7% of the Democratic vote, 93% of the Republican vote, and 64% of the unaffiliated vote. The remaining votes from each group go to third party candidates (according to the Gonzales Poll).

As shown in the table, applying those partisan margins to the requested absentee ballots would net 35,288 for Jealous, or 44.4% of the total, and 42,093 for Hogan, or 53% of the total.  Historically, Democrats have dominated the early vote in Maryland. In 2014, Anthony Brown won the early vote by 9 percentage points. 

***Updated with data as of 10/22/2018, Hogan's position has improved. Hogan now receives 53.7% to 43.7% for Jealous. In this model, Jealous doesn't overtake Hogan unless Hogan's share of the Democratic vote drops below 29%. And again, Democrats tend to dominate early voting in Maryland. 

There's no way to tell how the folks who have requested absentee ballots will vote and I'm certainly not predicting a 54% to 44% margin for the election or even among actual absentee ballots. I am saying that any assumption that the absentee ballot requests point to good news for Jealous... is not a safe assumption.