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Saturday, October 9, 2010

Absolutely No Evidence of a Democratic Rebound

Though some hopeful partisans and a few members of the press have written recently about renewed hope among Democrats that the 2010 midterms will not be as bad as previously thought there is in fact no evidence to support the theory of a Democratic rebound. In fact, things appear to be getting worse not better. Some, including myself, argued that the election of Tea Party candidate Christine O'Donnell in Delaware had eliminated all hope among the GOP of retaking the Senate and had served to awaken Democratic voters and wavering Independents... not so fast. The latest round of survey data in key states suggests that GOP still has a shot at the Senate. Recent surveys in West Virginia and Wisconsin show a clear Republican advantage. Sharon Angle appears to have pulled ahead in Nevada and now two new surveys show Dino Rossi leading Patti Murray in Washington state. Republicans appear poised to win in AR, COIN, ND, and PA for a gain of five seats.  Now add WV, WI, IL, NV, and WA and that's 10 states and the majority.

In the battle for the House news is equally bad for Democrats. Republicans enjoy a lead in every survey of likely voters and the lead ranges from 3 to 18 points. Historically, Republicans have rarely ever led on the generic ballot making the consistent lead across polls especially significant. The most recent CBS News/ New York Times survey finds Republicans with an 8 point lead a substantial increase from the 2 point lead they enjoyed last month.

Certainly no evidence of Democratic momentum there.

And Republicans seem to be expanding the battlefield "Republican challengers are suddenly threatening once-safe Democrats in New England and the Northwest, expanding the terrain for potential GOP gains and raising the party's hopes for a significant victory in next month's elections." And even a institution in the House like John Dingell of Michigan is polling below 40% and trailing in his reelection bid. "If Dingell is truly down in this D+13 district, what does this say for Democratic chances in the 5th (D+12) and the 12th (D+13), neither of which appear to be on anyone's radar screens?"

Last, a new strategy memo from Stan Greenberg and James Carville finds that Democrats have been doing more harm than good by telling voters that Republicans would move America in the wrong direction.
"Voters are not moved by Democratic messages that say 'go forward, not back,' mention President Bush, compare then and now, or even that hint the economy is 'showing signs of progress'... After hearing this battle of Republican and Democratic messages, 8 percent shift their vote to support the Republican, while only 5 percent move to the Democrats. We lose ground. These messages are helping the Republicans."
There has been no rebound...