The
inaugural Maryland Poll from St. Mary's
College of Maryland surveyed the political landscape heading into the 2014
primary election and found that most Marylanders
have absolutely no preference when it comes to the candidates for
governor.
The
poll is in line with prior polls for Gonzales Research, The Baltimore Sun, and
The Washington Post. Much like those polls, the Maryland Poll finds a very
unsettled race for the GOP nomination and a Democratic race where the favorite, the
sitting two term lieutenant governor, is being beaten by "No
Preference" by a 2 to 1 margin.
The
2014 primary is two months away and yet most voters appear to have no firm
commitments to the candidates.
No firm commitments
Specifically,
the poll finds Anthony Brown with 27% support, followed by Douglas Gansler at
11% and Heather Mizeur at 8%. But fully 54% expressed no preference.
In
a three-way race, Brown is close to the 34% that would be sufficient to win a
closely matched election. But much like the other candidates, he has been
unable to expand his base of support even after a year of campaigning and
advertising.
Gansler
has been hammering away at Brown on the issue of Maryland's failed health
exchange, but with 11% support the issue does not appear to be helping him.
Mizeur
has been generating a lot of coverage and interest of late owing to her
unapologetically progressive campaign. She has embraced a living wage,
physician-assisted suicide, a moratorium on fracking, legalization of
marijuana, and host of other progressive wish list items. Yet she's made no
noticeable progress in winning over potential voters.
Brown's to lose
The
Democratic primary remains Brown's to lose and it's likely that the upcoming
debates will present the final opportunities for either Gansler or Mizeur to
change that reality.
Interestingly,
Gansler seems to have shifted his strategy. Early on, he presented himself as a
centrist, pro-business Democrat. Recently, he has de-emphasized those qualities
and instead focused on more progressive policy issues. This was a mistake.
In
a three way race with two candidates already chasing the progressive vote, the
smart move is to target the voters that the other two are ignoring. Gansler
needs to pivot back to the center. His only path to victory requires Brown and
Mizeur to split the progressive vote while Gansler goes for the moderate and
conservative Democrats still in the party.
GOP's disastrous situation
On
the Republican side the poll finds a disastrous situation for the state's
permanent minority party.
More
than two-thirds of Maryland Republican voters have no preference. Larry Hogan
claims the support of 16%, followed by David Craig at 7.8%. Neither Ron George
nor Charles Lollar were able to crack 4%.
Maryland
is a very tough nut for Republicans to crack. Democrats enjoy a 2 to 1 voter
registration advantage and Republicans are rarely ever able to overcome the
Democrats' advantages in the state's population centers.
For
a Republican to win, the nominee would need several things to break his or her
way.
· The
Democratic party must be divided after the primary. That could certainly happen
this year.
· The
Democratic electorate must lack passion for the party's nominee. That could
certainly happen this year.
· It
must be a good year for Republicans nationally (like in 1994, 2002, or 2010).
That could certainly happen this year.
Beyond
those three ingredients, a Republican candidate also needs a unified and
passionate Republican party and an electorate frustrated with the direction of
the state. Neither of those two ingredients are present.
Not enough dissatisfaction
With
regard to the direction of the state: Though the poll found a plurality of 46%
agreeing that the state is going in the wrong direction, another 41% said it
was going in the right direction. That margin is not sufficient for a
Republican to overcome the Democrats' built in advantages.
Keep
in mind, Bob Ehrlich had an approval rating above 50% when he lost the 2006
election by 6 percentage points.
A
clear majority of poll respondents supported increasing the minimum wage and
reported that the Affordable Care Act either helped their families or had no effect
on them, a slim majority supported decriminalizing small amounts of marijuana,
and pluralities supported affirmative action, the fracking moratorium and
gun control.
In
a particularly interesting finding, the survey asked respondents how they were
registered and then later asked what party they consider themselves to be a
member of. The voter registration numbers essentially match state records - 53%
Democrat, 28% Republican, and 18.5% Independent or other.
When
asked how they see themselves, the breakdown was 44% Democrat, 25% Republican,
and 31% Independent or other. The breakdown shows that there is an opportunity
for the GOP in the state, but only if the party can broaden its appeal and only
if party activists accept that the party cannot win without attracting
Independent voters.
No frontrunners in GOP
Several
months ago, as I was arguing that David
Craig represented the GOP's best chance at reclaiming the governor's mansion,
many Republican activists challenged my assertion. Both privately and via
social media these activists suggested a much stronger candidate existed and
would soon enter the race and energize the party. They were referring to Larry
Hogan.
Well,
Hogan's in the race and he is the "frontrunner." But in a race where
64% of potential primary voters have no preference, there are no frontrunners.
Hogan has not lit the fire that many were expecting.
Likewise,
Craig has not run the experienced, well managed campaign that I was expecting.
Craig sought to shore up the GOP base by taking a distinct right turn (thereby
harming his ability to win in November) and Hogan has adopted a play it
safe strategy by skipping forum after forum (thereby harming his credibility).
And
no GOP candidate has any real success raising money. All four candidates
combined could barely reach $1 million - meanwhile, Gansler and Brown are
each sitting on multiple millions.
As
things stand today, it's hard to see the GOP reclaiming the keys to
Government House.
*Though I am an Associate Professor at St. Mary's College, I had no involvement in the development, execution, or analysis of the poll results.
