In a recent call with reporters, the Ben Jealous campaign said that they expect Democrats to make up 57% of voters in the gubernatorial election. That would be noticeably better than 2014 when Democrats accounted for only 54.5% of voters. The last time Democrats made up 57% of the electorate was in 2006 when Martin O'Malley defeated Republican incumbent Bob Ehrlich. So would 57% be enough for Jealous to defeat Hogan? Probably not.
Shortly after the 2014 election Jared McDonald with the Center for American Politics and Citizenship at the University of Maryland analyzed the 2014 election results to test the theory that Anthony Brown had lost to Larry Hogan because of poor turnout among Democrats. In his analysis, McDonald substituted the 2002, 2006, and 2010 turnout levels for the actual levels in 2014. He found that Hogan still would've won under any of those scenarios. According to McDonald the reason was clear - it wasn't because Democratic turnout was low, it was because nearly 25% of Democrats had voted for Hogan. In other words, Brown still would've lost under each of the 3 turnout scenarios because of the number of Democrats who crossed over to vote for Hogan.
In the following tables, I update McDonald's analysis by applying the 2006 turnout model (which assumes that 57% of voters are Democrats) to the 2018 electorate. In the first table, I assume that Jealous receives the same level of support from Democratic, Republican, and Unaffiliated voters as had Brown. Hogan receives the same level of support that he received in 2014 as well. Under that scenario, Hogan wins by a margin of nearly 60,000 votes and 2 percentage points. But in 2014, Hogan only received support from 23% of Democrats. Polls conducted thus far in the 2018 race suggest that Hogan will do much better among Democrats as compared to 2014. The Gonzales Research and Marketing poll released a few weeks ago showed Hogan receiving well above 30% of the Democratic vote. If I apply the levels of partisan support from the Gonzales poll to the 2006 turnout model with a 57% Democratic electorate, Hogan wins by over 430,000 votes and 19 percentage points (which is where polls put his lead right now).
If we assume that overall turnout will rise to 2006 levels and that the electorate is composed of 57% Democrats then Hogan wins even if he simply maintains his level of support among Democrats from 2014. The Jealous campaign said that their goal is to hold Hogan's support among Democrats to less than 30%. My models suggest that Jealous needs to hold Hogan to less than 23% support from Democrats.
Does this mean that all hope is lost for Jealous? Not quite. Oddly enough, the best case scenario model for Jealous comes from the Goucher poll that found Jealous to be 22 points behind Larry Hogan. Though the poll showed Hogan with a commanding lead, it assumed the electorate would be 61% Democrat and only 27% Republican - a decidedly strong showing by Democrats. Hogan led in that poll because of the high level of support he received from Democrats, but, as shown in Table Two, if Jealous could hold Hogan to his 2014 level of support among Democrats then Jealous would win by 41,000 votes and 2 percentage points. If, however, Hogan receives the level of support suggested by the Gonzales poll then Hogan wins by over 311,000 votes and 14 percentage points. In fact, if Hogan received the support of only 26% of Democratic voters he'd still win even if 61% of voters were Democrats.
Shortly after the 2014 election Jared McDonald with the Center for American Politics and Citizenship at the University of Maryland analyzed the 2014 election results to test the theory that Anthony Brown had lost to Larry Hogan because of poor turnout among Democrats. In his analysis, McDonald substituted the 2002, 2006, and 2010 turnout levels for the actual levels in 2014. He found that Hogan still would've won under any of those scenarios. According to McDonald the reason was clear - it wasn't because Democratic turnout was low, it was because nearly 25% of Democrats had voted for Hogan. In other words, Brown still would've lost under each of the 3 turnout scenarios because of the number of Democrats who crossed over to vote for Hogan.
In the following tables, I update McDonald's analysis by applying the 2006 turnout model (which assumes that 57% of voters are Democrats) to the 2018 electorate. In the first table, I assume that Jealous receives the same level of support from Democratic, Republican, and Unaffiliated voters as had Brown. Hogan receives the same level of support that he received in 2014 as well. Under that scenario, Hogan wins by a margin of nearly 60,000 votes and 2 percentage points. But in 2014, Hogan only received support from 23% of Democrats. Polls conducted thus far in the 2018 race suggest that Hogan will do much better among Democrats as compared to 2014. The Gonzales Research and Marketing poll released a few weeks ago showed Hogan receiving well above 30% of the Democratic vote. If I apply the levels of partisan support from the Gonzales poll to the 2006 turnout model with a 57% Democratic electorate, Hogan wins by over 430,000 votes and 19 percentage points (which is where polls put his lead right now).
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| Table One: 2006 Turnout Model with 57% Democrats |
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| Table Two: 2006 Turnout Model with 61% Democrats |
So Jealous needs two things to break his way, Democrats need to make up more than 57% of the electorate and Hogan's support among Democrats needs to be at or below its 2014 level. Either of those alone will not suffice. Jealous needs both to happen.
