It's Possible to Oppose Nancy Pelosi AND to Not Be Sexist

Newsflash: It’s entirely possible to believe that Pelosi should not be Speaker without being a sexist. Especially given that the opposition extends to the entire leadership team (mostly men). The fact that her supporters are using sexism to guilt Democrats into voting for her is s sign of how worried they are that she won’t secure enough votes.

But what I find to be especially ridiculous is the claim the Pelosi deserves to be Speaker because she delivered the House majority to Democrats. There are several problems with this argument: 1) If she’s responsible for the 2018 win, then isn’t she responsible for the 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 failure to win the House? Why credit now and no blame then? 2) No one credibly claimed that John Boehner won Republicans the majority in 2010. It was Barack Obama who delivered the House majority to the GOP in 2010. 3) If the Speakership should go to the person responsible for Democrats winning the majority, then Donald Trump should be Speaker. He's the one who drove college educated suburban Republicans away from their party.

Democrats need to embrace a new generation of leadership. The problem being that that new leadership must come from the party’s center - and there is no clear candidate. Democrats won the majority because of the success of moderate candidates in the suburbs once dominated by the GOP. The recent threat by Ocasio-Cortez to recruit progressive candidates to challenge incumbent moderate Democrats is a surefire recipe for becoming the minority party again.

Enough with the 2010 Obsession

Jealous keeps saying that if 1 million Democrats vote - he wins, because that's what happened in 2010 with O'Malley. There’s no reasonable scenario where fewer than 1 million Democrats turnout to vote in MD’s gubernatorial election. I don’t get the constant references to 2010 & needing 1 million Democrats. There are literally 500,000 more registered voters in 2018. It’s about crossover votes!

The most likely turnout scenario that I see predicts 1.2 to 1.3 million Maryland Democrats voting in this election. I’ve not even bothered w/ models that assume less. 2014’s loss wasn’t a result of low turnout. It was the result of Democratic crossover voters.

Jealous needs to hold Hogan to a lower share of Democrats than the 24% that he won in 2014 - under almost any realistic turnout scenario.

From day one, bringing wayward Democrats home should’ve been strategy number 1.

In the attached models, I assume that Democrats are 58% of all voters (that's better than in 2016) and I then assign Democratic votes to Hogan and Jealous based on various levels of support. Republicans and Other voters are assigned based on an average of the polls conducted in this race.

Jealous tops 1 million votes in each scenario, but loses any time Hogan tops 24% among Democrats.

I don’t offer these as a prediction. I’m only pointing at that everything, everything, comes down to crossover voters. Jealous needs to run against Trump for the next 4 days in an effort to bring Democrats home.

Maryland Politics 2018 - Can Larry Hogan Hold Back the Blue Wave

Maryland has not reelected a Republican governor in over 60 years. Despite that daunting history and clear evidence of Democratic enthusiasm as we near Election Day 2018, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan appears set to defy both history and the Blue Wave that is building nationally. 

How has Hogan managed to withstand the strong national headwinds? Will Hogan's popularity help other Republicans on the ballot in Maryland? 

Larry Hogan is the second most popular governor in the country, enjoys a 70% approval rating, and holds an 18-20 point lead over Democratic challenger Ben Jealous - all in a state where Democrats out number Republicans by a margin of 2 to 1. Will the Blue Wave cause so much as a ripple as it hits the Chesapeake Bay? 

These are just a few of the questions explored by Bryan Sears, Maryland Politics Reporter for The Daily Record, Mileah Kromer, Director of the Goucher Poll at Goucher College, and Todd Eberly, professor of Political Science at St. Mary's College of Maryland.

Bryan Sears - The Daily Record

Mileah Kromer - Director of The Goucher Poll

Todd Eberly, Professor of Political Science at St. Mary's College of Maryland

As Maryland’s public honors college, St. Mary’s offers an undergraduate liberal arts education and small-college experience like those found at exceptional private colleges.St. Mary’s is named for the place it marks: the 17th-century capital of Maryland. 

The Center for the Study of Democracy was founded in 2002 as a joint initiative of St. Mary’s College of Maryland and its partner institution, Historic St. Mary’s City, the site of Maryland’s first capital. The Center was created to promote public service and civic-mindedness, support research, and provide a forum for politicians, government officials, journalists, and scholars to address topics central to the Center's mission.

Familiar Patterns Seen in Maryland Early Voting

After 2 days of early voting I estimated that Maryland was on track for 16% turnout. It ended up at 16.72%. Compared to the 8.33% in 2014, that’s a 100% increase in turnout. That's pretty much the same as the increase in 2016 over 2012. Based on past trends, I believe that we’re on track for overall turnout of 52% or 53%. That would be better than the abnormally low turnout level in 2014, but below 2006 and 2010.

Some folks have been comparing the increase in total early voters between 2014 and 2018. But such a comparison doesn’t actually measure turnout increases. Since 2014, the total number of registered voters in Maryland has increased by 250,000. So to calculate any change in turnout, one needs to compare the percent of registered voters who turned out in 2014 (8.33%) to the percent of early voters who turned out in 2018 (16.72%).

The fact that early vote turnout in 2018 increased by essentially the same rate as 2016 over 2012 offers a reminder that even though early voting doubled in 2016, overall turnout only increased by 5.6%. Early voting turnout is yet to be predictive of overall turnout in Maryland.

The partisan breakdown of early voting is in line with expectations based on prior elections. Democrats were 64% of early voters. This is common in early voting in Maryland. Democrats were 65% of early voters in 2016 and 62% of early voters in 2014. But once Election Day voters were included in the counts, Democrats were 56% & 57% of overall voters, respectively. In other words, Democrats vote early at a higher rate than do other voters.

Looking at the early vote totals by gender also reveals similar patterns. Women cast 57% of the early vote in 2018 as compared to 56% in 2014. Their high watermark was in 2016 when they accounted for 59% of early voters.

Competitive County Executive races appear to have driven turnout above the statewide total in Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Howard County, and Montgomery County. The contest between Jesse Colvin and Andy Harris may have helped boost turnout in the counties of the 1st Congressional District - but it's worth noting that Eastern Shore counties have traditionally outpaced the rest of the state in early voting.

Early voting turnout in Western Maryland was low - and it usually is. Baltimore City lagged behind the statewide total - and it usually does. Prince Georges County started out with lackluster turnout, but finished strong and above the statewide total. This is a promising sign for Ben Jealous because Prince Georges County is likely to offer his greatest source of voters.

Same Day voter registration was not a big hit during early voting. Out of the 661,000 early voters only 3,700 registered on-site. That's about one half of 1%. It's likely that folks were not aware of the same day registration option. I'd expect to see more people take advantage of it in the future as they become more aware - much as better awareness of early voting has led to increased turnout in successive elections.

What does all of this mean for the outcome of the governor's race between Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous? Who knows! The early voting patterns are so in line with past early voting patterns that it would be folly to read too much into them. From the very beginning of this election the polls have clearly indicated that the outcome will be determined by Democratic voters and their willingness to crossover and vote for Hogan. Polls since August have consistently shown Hogan receiving support from 30-38% of Democrats. When Hogan won in 2014 it's estimated that nearly 25% of Democrats voted for him. So Ben Jealous needs to have Democratic voters "come back home" and vote for their party. In the end, Jealous needs to hold Hogan to no more than 25% of Democrats. That's a tall order, but the last two weeks of controversy surrounding President Trump may well encourage many Democrats to cast a vote against Trump and his party.

We'll know all of the answers on Tuesday night!