Jealous keeps saying that if 1 million Democrats vote - he wins, because that's what happened in 2010 with O'Malley. There’s no reasonable scenario where fewer than 1 million Democrats turnout to vote in MD’s gubernatorial election. I don’t get the constant references to 2010 & needing 1 million Democrats. There are literally 500,000 more registered voters in 2018. It’s about crossover votes!
The most likely turnout scenario that I see predicts 1.2 to 1.3 million Maryland Democrats voting in this election. I’ve not even bothered w/ models that assume less. 2014’s loss wasn’t a result of low turnout. It was the result of Democratic crossover voters.
Jealous needs to hold Hogan to a lower share of Democrats than the 24% that he won in 2014 - under almost any realistic turnout scenario.
From day one, bringing wayward Democrats home should’ve been strategy number 1.
In the attached models, I assume that Democrats are 58% of all voters (that's better than in 2016) and I then assign Democratic votes to Hogan and Jealous based on various levels of support. Republicans and Other voters are assigned based on an average of the polls conducted in this race.
Jealous tops 1 million votes in each scenario, but loses any time Hogan tops 24% among Democrats.
I don’t offer these as a prediction. I’m only pointing at that everything, everything, comes down to crossover voters. Jealous needs to run against Trump for the next 4 days in an effort to bring Democrats home.
