Wednesday, April 7, 2010

A Senate Majority for Republicans? It's Not Out Of The Question.

The latest Gallup poll finds a record-low 28% of American voters say most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected. The previous low was 29% in October 1992. According to Gallup, "The same poll finds 49% of voters, a near-record low, saying their own member of Congress deserves to be re-elected. This marks only the second time since Gallup began asking this question in 1992 that the figure has dipped below 50%, and the first on the doorstep of a midterm election."

The latest round-up of 2010 Senate races at RealClearPolitics.Com finds that Republicans would gain 7 seats in the Senate if the election were held today - bringing the balance of power to 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans. These projections are based on poll averages in contested states. A close examination of that polling data reveals that a 51 seat majority for Republicans is not out of reach. At present, California, Wisconsin, and Illinois are projected to remain in democratic hands - but the most recent polls in Wisconsin and Illinois show Republicans in the lead and the race is tied in California.

Last year at this time pundits were predicting that Democrats would likely add to their margin in the US Senate, about 7 months ago they began to estimate losses of maybe 2 seats, now the estimate is roughly 7 seats - but the trend is clear and a Republican Senate is no longer out of the question come January 2011. Democrats need to find some way to change the dynamic of the 2010 midterms, but with the latest CBS News poll showing that the public is opposed to the recently passed health reform law by a margin of 53% to 32% it is unclear to me how they will accomplish that goal.