Friday, April 23, 2010

New Poll Confirms that Ehrlich/O'Malley Rematch will be Competitive

A new poll from Rasmussen confirms what I have argued for months - a gubernatorial rematch between former governor Bob Ehrlich and current governor Martin O'Malley would be very competitive. The poll finds that in a General Election Match up Martin O'Malley (D) would receive 47% to Bob Ehrlich's (R) 44% - that's a statistical tie. Undecideds were at 7%. Since the last Rasmussen poll in late February (before Ehrlich entered the race), Governor O'Malley's support has fallen by 2 points, Ehrlich's is up by 1 point and the share of Undecideds has increased by 2 points.

The poll continues a troubling trend for O'Malley in that he cannot seem to reach 50% support in a state where 56% of voters are registered Democrats and they outnumber Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin. Perhaps equally troubling for O'Malley, Ehrlich has a 56% favorability rating - that's a good place for a defeated Republican governor to be in a Democratic state.

There are two bright spots for O'Malley 1) his approval rating has hit 50% for the first time in three years, and 2) President Obama has a 59% approval rating in the state. Both should work to O'Malley's advantage in turning out the party faithful - provided that each holds through November.

Much more on the Ehrlich/O'Malley race can be found here, here, here, and here....