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Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Midterm Clues In Primary Races

There were primary elections in several states on Tuesday and theyoffered some clues on the November midterms. In 2008, Barack Obama won 365 Electoral Votes to John McCain's 173. Among Obama's tally were Ohio's 20, Virginia's 15, and North Carolina's 13 votes. Key to Obama's victory was exceptionally high turnout among Democratic voters. There were statewide primaries in each of these states on Tuesday and Democratic turnout was down dramatically. As detailed by National Journal, Democratic turnout was down across the board - and not compared to the 2008 election, but compared to other off year primary elections. Republican turnout, however, was up. In Ohio, GOP turnout for the Secretary of State primary was up over 50% compared to 2006.

Gallup adds more to the challenge facing Democrats in a new poll that finds 43% of Republicans are "very enthusiastic" about voting, compared to just 33% of Democrats.

One can add one more ominous sign for Democrats - twenty term incumbent Rep. David Obey (WI-07), the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, has announced that he will not seek re-election. When someone as powerful as Obey sounds the retreat in a district with a Democratic voter registration advantage the evidence is clear that 2010 will not be a good year for Democrats, in fact it may be a disaster.