All Tied Up in Maryland - O'Malley should be Worried

The latest poll from Rasmussen Reports finds the Maryland raced all tied-up at 45% to 45%. Since Rasmussen began polling this race in February, O'Malley has fallen by 4 points and Ehrlich is up by 2 points. O'Malley needs to be a bit worried about that trend. Consider:

1. Maryland has weathered the recession better than most states.
2. Maryland's job situation is better than in most states.
3. The Maryland General Assembly just concluded a very non-contentious session.
4. O'Malley submitted a shrunken and balanced budget without any tax increases and a tax credit for businesses that hire unemployed Marylanders.

Yet O'Malley is in worse shape against Ehrlich now than he was prior to the session. O'Malley needs to halt his slide and Ehrlich needs to continue his climb. All told, I would rather be Bob Ehrlich right now. The trend is in his favor and O'Malley has not polled at 50% in any re-election poll. That's not a good sign for any incumbent - just ask John Corzine, the former governor of New Jersey. 

2010 is still shaping up to be a very strong year for Republicans and Ehrlich is clearly riding that building wave. He just needs to hope that wave crests in early November and not in late summer.